|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ANDS; CAKE; KERX; TOL
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 07/16/2005
SUN (Sunoco--$119.02; +1.2; optionable): Oil and gas refining. Splits 2:1 on 8-2-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sun.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. SUN broke out from a 9 week double bottom with handle base in mid-June, rallying to 122.88 early last week before the oil sector came under some pressure. Dumped lower on stronger volume Thursday when most energy stocks fell, but checked up at the 18 day EMA (117.35) and managed a modest but above average volume bounce Friday. May take a couple more sessions to rest up and set up the next bounce, but looks solid for a bounce off of this near support.
Volume: 1.293M Avg Volume: 1.275M
BUY POINT: $119.68 Volume=1.5M Target=$125.96 Stop=$117.27
POSITION: SUN KD - Nov. $120c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sun.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 07/16/2005
CYBX (Cybertronics--$44.98; -0.18; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cybx.html
Earnings: Early August
After Hours: $47.50
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A very nice 14 week base has set up using the 50 day EMA (41.51) as support. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation in the pattern (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying as CYBX sets up for a breakout to a new all-time high. Just a sweet pattern and love the sector and the lack of overhead resistance to push it back on a breakout.
Volume: 1.478M Avg Volume: 803.188K
BUY POINT: $46.05 Volume=1.2M Target=$52.95 Stop=$44.65
POSITION: QAJ JI - Oct. $45c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cybx.html
Play Date: 07/16/2005
DSTI (Daystart Technologies--$14.88; -0.17; no options): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dsti.html
After Hours: $14.95
STATUS: Breakout test. DSTI is making the second test of its early June breakout, a missile blast out of a 13 week flat base that formed along the 50 day EMA (11.53). A big surge from 7 to 16 needed a rest, and the past 4 weeks DSTI has made that test. It came back to the 18 day EMA (13.83) at the first of June and gapped back up. Then it spent last week easing back to the 10 day EMA (14.43), making a higher low and setting up the next move higher. Even as it consolidated the past 4 weeks it is still showing positive 2 to 0 accumulation. Money flow has remained strong as well all during this pullback, another indication that the buyers are still moving in. A new issue in March of 2004, DSTI has emerged as a market leader. This low volume test last week is setting up a great entry point for us.
Volume: 531.267K Avg Volume: 1.115M
BUY POINT: $15.44 Volume=1.4M Target=$18.89 Stop=$14.39
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dsti.html
Play Date: 07/16/2005
IDBE (ID Biomedical--$18.9; +0.49; optionable): Biotechnology
Earnings: Mid-August.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idbe.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Tuesday saw IDBE blast out from a 30 week flat base that formed along the 50 day EMA (16.90), a key support level where institutions step in to accumulate shares in their favorite stocks. Accumulation has been a solid 10 to 7, showing there is in fact ongoing buying. This is a base on base pattern, having formed right on the heels of a 15 month cup base. That looks to have weeded out the sellers as IDBE took off last week on the heels of strong money flow. A quick lower volume test back on Thursday and Friday (though Friday posted a gain) is setting up the next move higher. Looking for volume to come back in as IDBE continues its breakout run. A market leader heading to a new all-time high where it will have room to stretch its legs.
Volume: 256.335K Avg Volume: 254.002K
BUY POINT: $19.28 Volume=350K Target=$22.45 Stop=$17.93
POSITION: QQ LW - Dec. $17.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idbe.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
BEN: Forecast 7-28-05. Got a bit hairy Friday with a volume gap lower. Held the 10 day EMA on the close but needs to get the house back in order before we enter some new positions.
CDIS: New information: Forecast 8-2-05 after the close.
CI: Forecast 8-2-05 after the close.
CTSH: New information. Forecast 7-28-05 before the open.
DNA: No split announced on 7-6-05 but great earnings and that has propelled DNA to another solid rally.
EAT: Forecast tentatively 8-11-05
ENR: Forecast 7-28-05
EQT: Forecast 7-28-05
EXBD: Forecast 7-24-05
FNF: Forecast 7-20-05
FO: Forecast 7-22-05
GOOG: Forecast 7-21-05
GPN: Forecast 7-20-05
HOC: Forecast mid-August. Has dropped to the 18 day EMA where it has held for now. Needs to regroup a bit more for new positions.
IVGN: Forecast 7-28-05
IVX: No split announced 7-14-05.
KSWS: Forecast 7-22-05. Working just over the 50 day EMA in its 3.5 month trading rang. Has not given us the break higher to enter and give the run higher that would put it in split range.
LM: Forecast 7-21-05
LSS: Forecast 7-18-05. No split history. Trying to hang on here at support at 45.
MHS: Forecast 7-26-05
MRVL: Forecast mid-August.
OSK: Forecast 7-21-05
RMD: Forecast mid-August
RYN: Forecast 7-26-2005
SHLD: Forecast 7-21-05
SIE: Forecast 7-25-05
SLB: Forecast 7-22-05 before the open.
STN: Forecast 7-28-05
TRMB: Forecast 7-21-05
TSCO: New information. Forecast 7-20-05 or possibly 7-22-05
URBN: New information. Forecast 8-11-05
VLO: Forecast 7-14-05. Declared a dividend on Thursday but no new split yet.
WFMI: Forecast 7-28-05
YUM: No split announced 7-13-05. YUM never gave us the entry point and its earnings were termed 'confusing' by most analysts, never a good sign.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/16/2005
CELL (Brightpoint--$23.69; -0.28; optionable): Wholesale electronics. Forecast to announce a split 7-26-05 or on 8-8-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 9-15-03 at $27.50. Before that it announced a 3:2 split on 7-29-05 at $25.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cell.html
STATUS: Breakout test. CELL broke out from a 10 week cup with handle in late June, posting a strong gain on strong volume to end the month. It continued up close to 25 and then spent last week easing back to test the move, coming back to the 10 day EMA (23.49) on low, below average volume. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers as it consolidated. Nice pullback from a solid leader that is setting up the next run higher and giving us an entry point. Want to see the volume jump as it resumes the move higher.
Volume: 155.087K Avg Volume: 305.275K
BUY POINT: $24.12 Volume=458K Target=$28.44 Stop=$23.38
POSITION: ULN JX - Oct. $22.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cell.html
Play Date: 07/16/2005
SU (Suncor Energy--$48.76; -0.3; optionable): Oil and gas refining. Forecast to announce a split 7-27-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-26-02 at $36.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/su.html
STATUS: Breakout test. SU sold back with the rest of the oil stocks to end last week, but managed to hold the 18 day EMA (48.81) after trading below that level intraday. This is the second test of a strong early June breakout from a 10 week double bottom with handle base. May take a bit more time to consolidate, but looking for a rebound on some solid trade from here to start the play.
Volume: 1.599M Avg Volume: 1.38M
BUY POINT: $49.92 Volume=1.8M Target=$56.32 Stop=$48.72
POSITION: SU LJ - Dec. $50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/su.html
Continuing Plays:
Play Date: 07/05/2005
CDIS (Cal Dive--$54.39; -0.27; optionable): Oil and gas equipment/services. Forecast to announce a split 8-2-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 10-18-2000 at $54.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cdis.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice doji Friday just above the 18 day EMA (53.64) as CDIS tests the breakout from a nicely formed 15 week double bottom with handle base. A breakout on volume on the move and now it is running higher, using the short term MA (10 and 18 day EMA) as support. Looking for volume to return (low volume Friday on the test) as it starts back up and moves through the 10 day EMA (54.70).
Volume: 382.812K Avg Volume: 550.308K
BUY POINT: New: $55.05 (orig. $56.11) Volume=750K Target=$63.78 Stop=$54.05
POSITION: KPQ LK - Dec. $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cdis.html
Play Date: 07/09/2005
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$48.11; +1.08; optionable): Business software. Forecast 7-28-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-12-04 at $47.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
After Hours: $48.09
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still working laterally above the 50 day EMA (46.73) as CTSH sets up for the breakout from its 18 week pattern. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the base shows net buying. Just need to see that volume jump (big surge Tuesday as CTSH was up and down) as CTSH makes a move through the buy point.
Volume: 990.753K Avg Volume: 1.588M
BUY POINT: $48.65 Volume=2.4M Target=$54.85 Stop=$47.31
POSITION: UPU JI - Oct. $45c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctsh.html
Play Date: 07/02/2005
EAT (Brinker Intl.--$40.53; +0.23; optionable): Restaurants (Chili's, Romano's, On the Boarder, etc.). Kind of a wild card at this time of the year and tentatively forecast for 8-11-05, but a great pattern has set up.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 12-9-00 at $41.00.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eat.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Tried to make the move Friday, but volume did not follow EAT, and after it hit 41.01 on the high it ran out of gas and faded back for a modest gain. Still look super here as money flow is strong and EAT still looks ready to follow it. To recap: EAT exploded higher in early June when it raised its earnings outlook. The consumer is confident and spending money for now, and EAT is benefiting accordingly. After that big blast higher EAT has come back to test the move, holding at the 18 day EMA the past week on lower, below average volume. It held the 18 day and just over the February and March highs on the test, a good indication it is going to hold and rebound to continue the breakout move. Nice 17 week base formed using the 200 day SMA (36.00) on the low and sporting solid positive 3:2 accumulation. Outstanding money flow is leading the way higher.
Volume: 557.3K Avg Volume: 776.644K
BUY POINT: $40.72 Volume=1.2M Target=$46.78 Stop=$39.65
POSITION: EAT JH - Oct. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eat.html
Play Date: 07/09/2005
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$40.92; -0.05; optionable): Guidance systems for commercial and government applications in construction, agriculture, military, etc. Forecast to announce a split 7-21-05
BACKGROUND: TRMB last announced a 3:2 split (its only one) on 2-3-04 at $38.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Better volume (average) on Thursday as TRMB started the breakout move, but it was not as strong as we wanted. It eased back some Friday on very low trade. Looking for a continued move with volume kicking back in as it does. That will be our entry point. To recap: A short 6 week pattern that formed after the breakout and run from a double bottom base breakout in May. Nice base on base action that really weeds out the sellers. Volume started up Thursday, jumping to average as TRMB gapped higher and held most of its gain. Looking for a bit more volume as it continues the move higher.
Volume: 188.372K Avg Volume: 363.314K
BUY POINT: New: $41.21 (orig. $40.32) Volume=500K Target=$46.25 Stop=$38.88
POSITION: TUH KH - Nov. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/trmb.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/07/2005
HCC (HCC Insurance Holdings--$39.61; -0.09; optionable): P & C Insurance. Splits 3:2 on 7-18-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hcc.html
STATUS: Another tight doji Friday on low volume, holding just above the 10 day EMA (39.30) as it forms a 7 week double bottom with handle base. Looks super heading into the split on Monday, and we are looking for that to give it the breakout boost.
Volume: 189.3K Avg Volume: 366.434K
BUY POINT: $26.70 post-split Volume=475K Target=$29.98 Stop=$26.35
POSITION: HCC KH - Nov. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hcc.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/09/2005
CWTR (Coldwater Creek--$23.70; -0.02; optionable): Catalog and mail order houses
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cwtr.html
After Hours: $23.70
STATUS: Breakout test. Another nice quiet session above the 18 day EMA (23.36) as CWTR continued the second test of its late May breakout. Money flow keeps working higher as CWTR moves laterally in a tight range. Looks ready to make its move. To recap: Volume jumped sharply Thursday, moving well above average as CWTR reached down below the 18 day EMA but then shot back up to post a gain. Nice, nice test of the late May breakout. It came back to the 50 day EMA (22.04) on the first test in late May and blasted higher on strong volume. It is making the second test of the breakout, holding the 18 day EMA on this test. Strong money flow is still leading higher. Nice breakout from a 5 month cup base. Looks very ready to make the rebound move.
Volume: 373.496K Avg Volume: 450.197K
BUY POINT: $24.14 Volume=647K Target=$28.35 Stop=$23.12
POSITION: CWK JY - Oct. $23.375c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cwtr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
