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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BELM; BGC; DJO; DTAS; EMKR; ICON; IDIX; INGR; NTGR
Best Plays:
1) ALXN: Nice volume as ALXN breaks from its sweet pattern.
2) JUPM: Strong volume as JUPM starts its breakout.
3) SVNT: Volume is moving higher as it readies to continue the breakout.
4) IDBE: Nice lateral move setting up the next break higher.
5) SONO: Volume is moving higher as SONO starts higher.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/20/2005
ALXN (Alexion Pharmaceuticals--$26.42; +1.2; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alxn.html
Earnings: Early September.
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice volume as ALXN starts the breakout from its 23 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (22.12) as support. A nice handle formed using the 10 day EMA (25.09) over the past two weeks, setting up the breakout. Strong money flow shows plenty of buying. Looking to move in as it continues the breakout move.
Volume: 491.632K Avg Volume: 282.785K
BUY POINT: $26.62 Volume=424K Target=$30.89 Stop=$24.97
POSITION: XQN KE - Nov. $25c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/alxn.html
Play Date: 07/20/2005
CVD (Covance--$50.20; -0.28; optionable): Research services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvd.html
After Hours: $50.20
Earnings: Released after close Wednesday.
STATUS: Breakout test. Solid earnings after the close, and now we see if they can drive CVD higher in its breakout move. CVD blasted off last week on strong volume, breaking out from a 14 week trading range that bounced along the 50 day EMA (46.30) as it gathered itself. Positive 3 to 2 accumulation in the pattern set up the break, and it was a strong one. Strong money flow is leading. Wednesday CVD showed a doji with tail as it worked through the second day of its pullback. May come back further and even to the 10 day EMA (48.56) as it led the market with its breakout ahead of most other stocks. If it goes back up here, however, we want to be ready. If not we will let it finish its test then pick it back up when it starts the run once more.
Volume: 781.5K Avg Volume: 397.883K
BUY POINT: From Wednesday close: $50.92; Test 48.50, then 48.88 on rebound. Volume=597K Target=$57.45 Stop=$48.42
POSITION: CVD KJ - Nov. $50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvd.html
Play Date: 07/20/2005
JUPM (Jupitermedia--$21.27; +1.41; optionable): Online info for IT business and creative professionals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jupm.html
After Hours: $21.21
Earnings: 8-1-05
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Volume surged Wednesday as JUPM started the breakout move from its 27 week base. Strong 7 to 4 accumulation set up the move and JUPM is off to a good start. JUPM was a big winner in 2004 and needed a base to consolidate and take a breather. It has done that with the market this year, and it really looks good as it starts its move.
Volume: 1.39M Avg Volume: 532.466K
BUY POINT: $21.65 Volume=799K Target=$25.98 Stop=$20.13
POSITION: EUU KD - Nov. $20c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jupm.html
Play Date: 07/20/2005
PMTI (Palomar Medical Tech--$27.69; +0.16; optionable): Medical Appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pmti.html
Earnings: 7-28-05
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A tight two week lateral move has set up the handle to a 19 week base that is ready to send PMTI to an 8 year high. Tried to make the move Tuesday with a high volume surge but could not hold the gain. Positive 4 to 3 accumulation shows net buying, setting the stage for the breakout. Looking for volume to return as it makes the next break higher.
Volume: 145.932K Avg Volume: 259.702K
BUY POINT: $27.95 Volume=390K Target=$32 Stop=$26.34
POSITION: HKQ KE - Nov. $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pmti.html
Play Date: 07/20/2005
SVNT (Savient Pharma--$4.49; -0.01; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/svnt.html
After Hours: $4.48
Earnings: Early August
STATUS: Breakout test. SVNT broke out in early June, moving out of a 18 week base that it formed as it came off the bottom of its long decline. Excellent 6 to 1 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) set up the move. It broke out and rallied up the 10 day EMA (4.39) and came back the past two weeks to the 18 day EMA (4.28), moving laterally below some resistance at 4.50. Money flow is moving higher ahead of the price and volume is creeping up to average. It is building pressure for the breakout.
Volume: 768.057K Avg Volume: 653.812K
BUY POINT: $4.58 Volume=981K Target=$5.49 Stop=$4.26
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/svnt.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 07/14/2005
ANTP (Phazar--$24.03; +0.3; no options): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/antp.html
After Hours: $24.01
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume is starting higher as ANTP starts up off of the 50 day EMA (22.89), though still below average. Looking good, just needs to give us a good break higher on strong trade. To recap: A huge rally in late 2004 pushed ANTP up ten-fold. That gutted the stock and it crashed back to 15 and has spent the following 18 weeks moving laterally in a15 point range from 15 to 30. It made a higher low in late June and early July, however, holding 20 on the lows. Volume kicked up early this week as it moved higher, and ANTP has come back on very low volume Wednesday and Thursday. Money flow continues to hold well above price, and we are looking for ANTP to use this higher low to start the next run toward 30. That will land us a nice gain, and if it continues with a breakout from the range, all the better.
Volume: 296.843K Avg Volume: 476.244K
BUY POINT: $24.55 Volume=650K Target=$29.62 Stop=$22.78
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/antp.html
Play Date: 07/16/2005
IDBE (ID Biomedical--$19.08; +0.22; optionable): Biotechnology
Earnings: Mid-August.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idbe.html
STATUS: Breakout test. IDBE continues to move laterally on below average volume after the strong move to start the month that broke it out from its base. Setting up for the next break higher. To recap: Tuesday saw IDBE blast out from a 30 week flat base that formed along the 50 day EMA, a key support level where institutions step in to accumulate shares in their favorite stocks. Accumulation has been a solid 10 to 7, showing there is in fact ongoing buying. This is a base on base pattern, having formed right on the heels of a 15 month cup base. That looks to have weeded out the sellers as IDBE took off last week on the heels of strong money flow. A quick lower volume test back on Thursday and Friday (though Friday posted a gain) is setting up the next move higher. Looking for volume to come back in as IDBE continues its breakout run. A market leader heading to a new all-time high where it will have room to stretch its legs.
Volume: 191.785K Avg Volume: 253.819K
BUY POINT: $19.28 Volume=350K Target=$22.45 Stop=$17.93
POSITION: QQ LW - Dec. $17.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/idbe.html
Play Date: 07/18/2005
IIJI (Internet Initiative Japan--$9.9; +0.11; optionable): Commercial internet access and network solutions in Japan
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iiji.html
After Hours: $10.07
Earnings: August 11
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Nice tight doji Wednesday on much lower, below average volume. After the big surge Monday this test is putting IIJI in position to continue the move. Looking for volume to return as it does. To recap: Lots of momentum in IIJI. It exploded higher to start June, rallying over 13. It plumbed back to the 50 day EMA (7.64) where it found support and then started to build back up, rallying off that near support level. After a good test last week it exploded off the 18 day on strong, above average volume. Ready to move in on a continued break higher. With this momentum we want to jump on another move higher.
Volume: 2.51M Avg Volume: 4.247M
BUY POINT: $10.73 Volume=5M Target=$12.95 Stop=$10.12
POSITION: IQD AV - Jan. $10c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iiji.html
Play Date: 07/18/2005
NWRE (Neoware--$11.35; -0.19; optionable): Networking equipment.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nwre.html
Earnings: Early August
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Lower volume Wednesday as NWRE dipped some, holding at the 10 day EMA (11.28) on the close. This still keeps it easily in its handle, working to shake out some of the last sellers. That is what you want to see before a breakout move. To recap: Volume has swelled the past week as NWRE readies for the breakout from its 18 week base. That volume swelling is a lot like the activity you have before you leave for a trip: a lot of activity as you get ready to go, then you get in the car and head on out. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers, and the volume the past week has us ready for the breakout.
Volume: 102.028K Avg Volume: 85K
BUY POINT: $11.89 Volume=155K Target=$13.78 Stop=$11.18
POSITION: QQA LB - Dec. $10c (62 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nwre.html
Play Date: 07/14/2005
SONO (Sonosite--$34.2; +0.68; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sono.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Tantalizing us as it eased off the 18 day EMA (33.14) on stronger volume heading toward average. Just need to see a stronger volume push to step into positions. Moved up the buy point to take it over some resistance that has formed. To recap: SONO broke out in early July, moving out of its 7 month reverse head and shoulders base. It rallied to 35 on the move and has faded back the past three sessions on lower and lower below average volume, holding the 18 day EMA on the close. Great position to continue the move higher. Strong 7 to 4 accumulation in the base set up the breakout, and this test gives us a good entry point when the stock starts back up on rising volume.
Volume: 99.515K Avg Volume: 121.236K
BUY POINT: $34.45 Volume=175K Target=$38.55 Stop=$32.98
POSITION: UZS LG - Dec. $35c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sono.html
Play Date: 07/16/2005
VIVO (Meridian Biosciences--$21.22; -0.02; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vivo.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume was up Wednesday but not quite enough, and VIVO was all over the map. Still solid in its pattern, holding the 10 day EMA (20.66) on the low and rebounding. Just about there. To recap: VIVO has eased back to the 10 day EMA on very low volume this past week after a strong bounce off the 50 day EMA (19.29) that started three weeks back. It broke out of a 20 week cup with handle base in early June and then fell back to test the move, holding at the 50 day EMA. After the last bounce it looks to be forming a higher low over the 10 day EMA. Looking for a strong volume move off of this level to start the position.
Volume: 96.57K Avg Volume: 112.5K
BUY POINT: New: $21.55 (orig $21.05) Volume=170K Target=$25.32 Stop=$20.22
POSITION: ZUG JD - Oct. $20c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vivo.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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