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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ANDS; IDBE; ODP
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 07/21/2005
DKS (Dicks Sporting Goods--$39.10; +0.1; optionable): Sporting goods stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dks.html
STATUS: Breakout test. DKS is testing the 18 day EMA (39.00) the past week after a low volume breakout and run from 38 to just over 40. This break higher came out of a 7 month base; it got some volume in late June but after that the trade dried up. Like the way it has held the 18 day EMA on the pullback. Want to see some volume as it moves higher and through the 10 day EMA (39.26) and through the buy point.
Volume: 413.3K Avg Volume: 648.086K
BUY POINT: $39.38 Volume=800K Target=$44.32 Stop=$38.89
POSITION: DKS LH - Dec. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dks.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
BEN: Forecast 7-28-05. Continues to hold the 10 day EMA and move laterally after that gap lower last Friday. Setting back up.
CDIS: Forecast 8-2-05 after the close.
CELL: Forecast 7-28-05 or 8-8-05
CI: Forecast 8-2-05 after the close.
CTSH: Forecast 7-28-05 before the open.
DNA: No split announced on 7-6-05 but great earnings and that has propelled DNA to another solid rally.
EAT: Forecast tentatively 8-11-05. Still working along the 18 day EMA on low trade.
ENR: Forecast 7-28-05
EXBD: Forecast 7-24-05
FNF: Forecast 7-20-05
FO: Forecast 7-22-05. Will see if it can deliver the news.
GOOG: Forecast 7-21-05. GOOG once more failed to split its stock after going thru the dutch auction for the little guy. Seems it does not feel the little guy is all that important now. Warned going thru its slowest quarter, & was buried after hrs, down $23 but bouncing to $18 down.
GPN: Forecast 7-20-05. Announced the split.
HOC: Forecast mid-August. Has held the 18 day EMA and is regrouping. It will be ready soon.
IVGN: Forecast 7-28-05
KSWS: Forecast 7-22-05. Still in the lateral move bracketing the 50 day EMA. Needs an announcement to get it going.
LM: Forecast 7-21-05. No news on a split yet as LM treads well over 100.
MHS: Forecast 7-26-05. Not doing it.
MRVL: Forecast mid-August.
OSK: Forecast 7-21-05. No announcement Thursday. Looking at 8-2-05 as next date. Needs to give us better action to enter.
RMD: Forecast mid-August
RYN: Forecast 7-26-2005
SHLD: Forecast 7-21-05. No word on any split.
SIE: Forecast 7-25-05. Dive, dive, dive. One of the healthcare stocks that suffered on a sector warning.
SLB: Forecast 7-22-05 before the open.
STN: Forecast 7-28-05
SU: Forecast 7-28-05.
TRMB: New information. Forecast 7-26-05
TSCO: Forecast 7-20-05 or possibly 7-22-05. No split announcement but is really selling the goods.
URBN: Forecast 8-11-05
WFMI: Forecast 7-28-05
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/21/2005
LLL (L-3 Communications--$75.41; -0.09; optionable): L-3 Communications. Wildcard. Forecast for a possible split announcement 7-26-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 4-32-02 at $125.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lll.html
After Hours: $75.85
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A bit low in price for a split, but like the pattern. It has set up well for an earnings announcement with a 4 week handle to its 7 month base. Positive 8 to 6 accumulation in the pattern shows net buying, tilting the balance in favor of a breakout and subsequent run. It just needs a catalyst. Volume was solid Wednesday as LLL moved up off of the 50 day EMA (74.07), the support for the handle. Looking for that volume to move higher as LLL moves through the buy point.
Volume: 677.8K Avg Volume: 944.548K
BUY POINT: $77.02 Volume=1.2M Target=$84.95 Stop=$74
POSITION: LLL JO - Oct. $75c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lll.html
Play Date: 07/21/2005
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$60.59; -0.95; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split 8-11-05. A bit lower than prior split prices.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 6-1-04 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The stock price was $54.54 at the time of announcement. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split on 8-14-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $46.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
After Hours: $60.50
STATUS: Breakout test. URBN broke out from a 6 month base in mid-May and rallied to 60. It then started the current lateral move that broke higher on volume Tuesday. It then faded Wednesday and Thursday, making a nice test of that move, tapping at 60 on the low. It held up very well given the worries over the China revaluation and its impact on retailers. A strong leader, we are looking for it to shake off the Thursday news and then resume the move higher on volume.
Volume: 920.054K Avg Volume: 1.227M
BUY POINT: $61.22 Volume=1.4M Target=$69.97 Stop=$59.68
POSITION: URQ LL - Dec. $60c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
Play Date: 07/21/2005
WFT (Weatherford International--$59.90; +0.59; optionable): Oil and gas service company. Forecast to announce a split 7-28-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: No splits in the history but the energy companies are popping off splits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wft.html
After Hours: $59.79
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume exploded Thursday on no particular news story. The stock basically ran in place as it did. This kind of mega volume spike in a handle is a 'get ready' spike, telling us to get ready for a breakout move. Nice 17 week base forming just below an all-time high.
Volume: 17.871M Avg Volume: 2.052M
BUY POINT: $60.88 Volume=3.1M Target=$68.49 Stop=$58.55
POSITION: WFT KL - Nov. $60c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wft.html
Continuing Plays:
Play Date: 07/14/2005
AGN (Allergan--$86.33; +0.43; optionable): Drugs. Forecast to announce a split on 7-27-04 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 1-27-00 at $88.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. AGN continues to move laterally, forming the handle to its large base. Showing some good volume surges as it works the past week. Still has some work to do but want to be ready for the break higher, and the announcement may supply the catalyst. To recap: AGN is working on a 4 week handle to a big 13 month base. This pattern is setting up a breakout to a new all-time high where there is no resistance. Volume moved up toward average Thursday after a very quiet, below average volume lateral move in the handle. Looking for that volume co continue ramping up as the stock moves up and through the buy point.
Volume: 467.3K Avg Volume: 1.123M
BUY POINT: $86.72 Volume=1.7M Target=$97 Stop=$84.72
POSITION: AGN JQ - Oct. $85c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/agn.html
Play Date: 07/09/2005
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$48.67; -0.83; optionable): Business software. Forecast 7-28-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-12-04 at $47.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
After Hours: $48.67
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. CTSH is still working on the right shoulder to its base, having come off of the 50 day EMA (47.08) early this week. It has neared the breakout point and has backed off to the 18 day EMA (48.14). Getting ready for the move. To recap: CTSH has set up for the breakout from its 18 week pattern. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the base shows net buying. Just need to see that volume jump (big surge Tuesday as CTSH was up and down) as CTSH makes a move through the buy point.
Volume: 841.357K Avg Volume: 1.469M
BUY POINT: New: $49.89 (orig. $48.65) Volume=2.4M Target=$54.85 Stop=$47.31
POSITION: UPU JI - Oct. $45c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctsh.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/20/2005
EQT (Equitable Resources--$69.21; -0.41; optionable): Gas utilities. Splits 2:1 on 9-2-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eqt.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. EQT reached lower below the 18 day EMA (69.18) Thursday and then rebounded to hold that level on the close. That may have been what it took to shake out the sellers and set the rebound move back up. Looking for volume to rise as EQT rebounds and moves up through the 10 day EMA (69.60). To recap: This is the first test of the 18 day EMA after its strong, high volume surge in late May and early June. After that move EQT made a slow steady climb up the 10 day EMA before slipping back to the 18 day the past three sessions. It showed a nice tight doji Wednesday that tapped the 18 day on the low and rebounded on some rising and just about average volume. Looking for it to blow through the 10 day EMA on some volume to enter positions.
Volume: 204.4K Avg Volume: 315.422K
BUY POINT: $70.05 Volume=350K Target=$75.95 Stop=$68.96
POSITION: EQT LN - Dec. $70c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eqt.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/20/2005
JAH (Jarden--$37.85; -0.07; optionable): Branded consumer products of all kinds
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jah.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice action Thursday as JAH tapped the 18 day EMA (37.05) on the low and rebounded to close flat, holding the 10 day EMA (37.66). After this test of the 18 day EMA it looks ready to resume the breakout move. To recap: JAH gapped higher in late June out of a 19 week ascending base that formed at the 50 day EMA. It rallied to 40 on solid trade, and has spent the past two weeks coming back on lower, below average volume to test the move. It has held above the 18 day EMA on this test, and we are looking for the strong money flow to turn the stock back up to continue the breakout move. Want to see volume kick up as it continues the breakout move.
Volume: 296.4K Avg Volume: 722.417K
BUY POINT: $38.22 Volume=1.1M Target=$43.95 Stop=$36.69
POSITION: JEP JX - Oct. $36.625c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jah.html
Play Date: 07/14/2005
SSYS (Stratasys--$35.34; -0.69; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssys.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Very low volume the past three sessions as SSYS works laterally above the 10 day EMA (34.94) and below 36. It has shown some good volume spikes the past two weeks, a good sign. Just being patient and waiting for the breakout move on volume. To recap: A sweet little 6.5 month base has formed following a nice surge in 2004 following its late 2003 split. Accumulation in the base is a solid 6 to 4 (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume), setting the foundation for the next breakout. This is something of a base on base pattern, the current base having formed on the heels of a big 15 month base that broke out in late 2005 but could not go anywhere.
Volume: 35.709K Avg Volume: 100.611K
BUY POINT: $35.78 Volume=151K Target=$41.65 Stop=$33.92
POSITION: QQG LG - Dec. $35c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssys.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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