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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BELM; BR; CDIS; CELL; DO; FLSH; LLL; PWR; SUN; TSCO; URBN; WFT
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 07/23/2005
SSNC (SS&C Technologies--$33.86; +0.44; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssnc.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. SSNC broke out in early June from a 16 month cup with handle base. It fell back and set up once more, holding above the 50 day EMA (30.96). After that test it started higher and rallied near 35. The past two weeks it is coming back to test and reset the move, holding at the 18 day EMA (33.09) with a big doji on low, below average volume. A nice, easy test of the move higher, setting up the next run. This is a strong market leader both in sales and earnings growth as well as technical pattern. Strong money flow is leading higher, and after this pullback to reset the stock we are looking for that to lead a stronger volume move higher.
Volume: 74.333K Avg Volume: 262.575K
BUY POINT: $34.26 Volume=325K Target=$39.45 Stop=$33.05
POSITION: QUN JG - Oct. $35c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssnc.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 07/23/2005
AMED (Amedisys--$39.17; +0.7; optionable): Home health care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amed.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Big surge to end June and start July as AMED broke out from an 8 month trading range that formed just above the 200 day SMA (32.07), using that key level as support. Solid 10 to 6 accumulation in the base (10 up price weeks on rising volume to 6 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying during the pattern and set up the breakout. Nice low volume test back the past two weeks, holding the 18 day EMA (37.67) on the lows. Very solid market leader with solid earnings and sales growth to go along with a good technical entry point. Looking for volume to move up with it as the stock continues the rebound off the 18 day.
Volume: 199.1K Avg Volume: 426.371K
BUY POINT: $39.58 Volume=500K Target=$44.98 Stop=$37.54
POSITION: CQW LH - Dec. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amed.html
Play Date: 07/23/2005
CUTR (Cutera--$18.98; +0.18; no options): Medical appliances and equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cutr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CUTR is currently forming a short handle to its 15 week base after a strong surge Monday and Tuesday off of the 50 day EMA (16.98) set up the right side of the pattern. It used the 200 day SMA (15.08) as support on the bottom, a good tap and rebound showing the institutions still supported it. A new issue in April 2004, this is a good early base that is setting CUTR up for the breakout to a new all-time high. Positive accumulation and money flow out in front of the price are solid indications it will make the move, but it will likely need another session or two to complete the handle over the 10 day EMA (17.95). Very nice pattern and a solid leader.
Volume: 72.829K Avg Volume: 122.26K
BUY POINT: $19.55 Volume=183K Target=$23.45 Stop=$18.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cutr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
BEN: Forecast 7-28-05. Still holding the 10 day EMA, setting back up for the next leg higher.
CDIS: Forecast 8-2-05 after the close.
CELL: Forecast 7-28-05 or 8-8-05
CI: Forecast 8-2-05 after the close.
CTSH: Forecast 7-28-05 before the open.
DNA: No split announced on 7-6-05 but great earnings and that has propelled DNA to another solid rally.
EAT: Forecast tentatively 8-11-05. Still working along the 18 day EMA on low trade. Good price action Friday, but it needs more volume.
ENR: Forecast 7-28-05
EXBD: Forecast 7-26-05
FNF: New information. Forecast 7-27-05 before the open.
FO: Forecast 7-22-05. No split announced as FO holds the 10 day EMA in its uptrend.
HOC: Forecast mid-August. Bouncing off the 18 day EMA but on very low volume.
IVGN: Forecast 7-28-05
KSWS: New information. Forecast 7-28-05. Trying to hang on at some support at 32.
LLL: Forecast 7-26-05 before the open.
LM: New information. Forecast 7-26-05 before the open. Has eased back to the 10 day EMA, providing a bit of an opportunity before the earnings next week.
MRVL: Forecast mid-August.
OSK: Forecast 8-2-05
RMD: Forecast mid-August
RYN: Forecast 7-26-2005
SLB: Forecast 7-22-05 before the open. No split but healthy earnings that sent it higher.
STN: Forecast 7-28-05
SU: Forecast 7-28-05.
TRMB: Forecast 7-26-05
TSCO: No split announcement but TSCO is surging once more.
URBN: Forecast 8-11-05
WFMI: Forecast 7-28-05. Struggling heading into earnings but holding the 50 day EMA. It is a wildcard to announce but looking for strong volume off this level and through 120 as an opportunity for additional positions.
WFT: Forecast 7-28-05 before the open.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/23/2005
CHTT (Chattem--$46.08; +0.12; optionable): Branded over the counter healthcare and dietary products. Forecast to announce a split 9-19-05 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-30-02 at $44.60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chtt.html
After Hours: $46.04
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. CHTT spent the past two weeks moving in a tight flat range above the 10 day EMA (45.47), forming the handle and setting up a breakout move from its 15 week base. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) is setting up the breakout that will send CHTT on its next leg higher. Money flow is also solid, a very good indication that the stock will make the breakout move in the near future, sending the stock to a new all-time high.
Volume: 145.181K Avg Volume: 263.914K
BUY POINT: $46.49 Volume=396K Target=$52.45 Stop=$45.22
POSITION: HQT LI - Dec. $45c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chtt.html
Play Date: 07/23/2005
SSI (Spectrasite--$76.01; +0.51; optionable): Wireless tower operator. Forecast to announce a split 7-28-05.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 on 8-22-05 at $63.00.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssi.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. SSI broke out in early June from a 12 week cup base and rallied up the 10 day EMA (75.69) into early July. It then peaked and eased back the past three weeks, moving laterally in a narrow range toward the 18 day EMA (74.71) on low, below average volume. A very good test of the breakout move, setting up for the next leg higher. Volume started higher Friday as SSI posted a modest gain. Looks ready to continue the move higher. As usual, want to see volume as it continues the breakout run to show that the buyers are back in the game even after it has moved higher.
Volume: 271.9K Avg Volume: 555.872K
BUY POINT: $76.62 Volume=600K Target=$85.95 Stop=$74.69
POSITION: SSI JO - Oct. $75c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssi.html
Continuing Plays:
Play Date: 07/14/2005
AGN (Allergan--$86.21; -0.12; optionable): Drugs. Forecast to announce a split on 7-27-04 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 1-27-00 at $88.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working laterally over the 18 day EMA (85.54) on very low volume, forming the handle to its base. Friday it reached down to the 18 day once more and rebounded. This works to shake out the last sellers. AGN could make the move at any time so we want to be ready as it heads into the announcement date this week. To recap: AGN is working on a 4 week handle to a big 13 month base. This pattern is setting up a breakout to a new all-time high where there is no resistance. Volume moved up toward average Thursday after a very quiet, below average volume lateral move in the handle. Looking for that volume co continue ramping up as the stock moves up and through the buy point.
Volume: 411K Avg Volume: 1.097M
BUY POINT: $86.72 Volume=1.7M Target=$97 Stop=$84.72
POSITION: AGN JQ - Oct. $85c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/agn.html
Play Date: 07/16/2005
CELL (Brightpoint--$24.44; +0.61; optionable): Wholesale electronics. Forecast to announce a split 7-26-05 or on 8-8-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 9-15-03 at $27.50. Before that it announced a 3:2 split on 7-29-05 at $25.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cell.html
After Hours: $24.42
STATUS: Breakout test. Working laterally the past two weeks below 24.70 and above the 10 day EMA (23.93) as CELL tries to set up the foundation for the next break higher after moving past the April high that formed the left side of its 13 week base. Very low volume the past two weeks, but it is hanging in there. Looking for volume to surge as it finally makes the break above the recent resistance. To recap: CELL broke out from a 10 week cup with handle in late June, posting a strong gain on strong volume to end the month. It continued up close to 25 and then spent last week easing back to test the move, coming back to the 10 day EMA on low, below average volume. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers as it consolidated. Nice pullback from a solid leader that is setting up the next run higher and giving us an entry point. Want to see the volume jump as it resumes the move higher.
Volume: 123.799K Avg Volume: 281.184K
BUY POINT: $24.78 Volume=458K Target=$28.98 Stop=$23.74
POSITION: ULN JX - Oct. $22.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cell.html
Play Date: 07/02/2005
EAT (Brinker Intl.--$40.87; +0.6; optionable): Restaurants (Chili's, Romano's, On the Boarder, etc.). Kind of a wild card at this time of the year and tentatively forecast for 8-11-05, but a great pattern has set up.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 12-9-00 at $41.00.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eat.html
STATUS: Breakout test. EAT continues its low volume lateral move above the 18 day EMA (40.34) for the pat three weeks, trying to hold this near support and continue it's the breakout move that occurred in early June. Friday it got a bit of action in the price but volume did not follow. Money flow continues to lead higher; looking for some volume to start accompanying it this week. To recap: EAT exploded higher in early June when it raised its earnings outlook. The consumer is confident and spending money for now, and EAT is benefiting accordingly. After that big blast higher EAT has come back to test the move, holding at the 18 day EMA on lower, below average volume. It held the 18 day and just over the February and March highs on the test, a good indication it is going to hold and rebound to continue the breakout move. Nice 17 week base formed using the 200 day SMA (36.24) on the low and sporting solid positive 3:2 accumulation. Looking for that volume to continue higher this week and send EAT back up in this breakout move. Outstanding money flow is leading the way higher.
Volume: 223.5K Avg Volume: 744.031K
BUY POINT: $40.97 Volume=1.2M Target=$46.98 Stop=$40.22
POSITION: EAT JH - Oct. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eat.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/21/2005
DKS (Dicks Sporting Goods--$39.17; +0.07; optionable): Sporting goods stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dks.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Low volume continues as DKS works laterally in a tight range over the 18 day EMA (39.02). Just being patient here and letting it show us the move. DKS is part of the retail sector that is showing solid improvement once more. To recap: DKS is testing the 18 day EMA after a low volume breakout and run from 38 to just over 40. This break higher came out of a 7 month base; it got some volume in late June but after that the trade dried up. Like the way it has held the 18 day EMA on the pullback. Want to see some volume as it moves higher and through the 10 day EMA (39.24) and through the buy point.
Volume: 233.2K Avg Volume: 641.95K
BUY POINT: $39.38 Volume=800K Target=$44.32 Stop=$38.89
POSITION: DKS LH - Dec. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dks.html
Play Date: 07/20/2005
JAH (Jarden--$38.40; +0.55; optionable): Branded consumer products of all kinds
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jah.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume moved back above average Friday as JAH started a solid move off of the 18 day EMA (37.19) in a test of the late June breakout and run higher. Nice action and still a buy on this move. To recap: Nice action last week as JAH tapped the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounded. This test of the 18 day EMA it looks to have set the rebound following the breakout test. JAH gapped higher in late June out of a 19 week ascending base that formed at the 50 day EMA. It rallied to 40 on solid trade, and has spent the past two weeks coming back on lower, below average volume to test the move. It has held above the 18 day EMA on this test, and is resuming the move on solid volume, following the strong money flow higher. Still a buy.
Volume: 568.4K Avg Volume: 722.267K
BUY POINT: New: $38.55 (orig. $38.22) Volume=1.1M Target=$43.95 Stop=$36.69
POSITION: JEP JX - Oct. $36.625c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jah.html
Play Date: 07/14/2005
SSYS (Stratasys--$35.51; +0.17; optionable): Computer peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssys.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume jumped above average Friday as SSYS dipped down below the 10 day EMA (35.04) and rebounded for a modest gain. These dips lower and rebounds work to shake out the last sellers and set the break higher. To recap: A sweet little 6.5 month base has formed following a nice surge in 2004 following its late 2003 split. Accumulation in the base is a solid 6 to 4 (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume), setting the foundation for the next breakout. This is something of a base on base pattern, the current base having formed on the heels of a big 15 month base that broke out in late 2005 but could not go anywhere.
Volume: 116.828K Avg Volume: 100.611K
BUY POINT: $35.78 Volume=151K Target=$41.65 Stop=$33.92
POSITION: QQG LG - Dec. $35c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssys.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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