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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BELM; BGC; DJO; DTAS; EMKR; ICON; IDIX; INGR; NTGR
Best Plays:
1) FSH: Setting up nicely for a new all-time high.
2) PLAB: Ready to continue its breakout move.
3) SPN: Surging to a new high.
4) IIJI: The pullback looks to be over.
5) PMTI: Handle looks to be finished.
6) SVNT: This is going to be the week.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/23/2005
DADE (Dade Behring Holdings--$69.11; +1.05; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dade.html
Earnings: 7-25-05 after the close
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After a short 9 week base DADE looks ready to begin a break to a new all-time high. After a solid surge two weeks back to a new high at 70, DADE slipped back to the 18 day EMA (67.53) last week on lower and lower volume, holding the 18 day as support for the test and rebounding Friday. Positive accumulation in the base along with some solid money flow is setting up the next move. It roughly formed the base over the 50 day EMA (66.05), a good support level that shows big money stepping in to buy some shares on the dip. Looking for volume to continue as DADE continues the move backup. A solid market leader market leader technically and in terms of sales and earnings growth.
Volume: 413.474K Avg Volume: 356.877K
BUY POINT: $69.68 Volume=535K Target=$78 Stop=$68.05
POSITION: JDQ KN - Nov. $70c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dade.html
Play Date: 07/23/2005
FSH (Fisher Scientific--$64.84; -0.07; optionable): Services and products to global pharma, laboratory markets
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fsh.html
Earnings: 8-3-05 after the close
STATUS: Cup w/handle. FSH continues to work laterally the past 6 weeks, forming the handle to its 6 month base. Excellent 8 to 4 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying during the pattern. Once this shakeout in the handle is over and the short term profit takers are gone it will be set to make the breakout to another all-time high. Excellent stock with great technical and fundamental underpinnings.
Volume: 744.6K Avg Volume: 961.386K
BUY POINT: $65.34 Volume=1.4M Target=$72.97 Stop=$64.05
POSITION: FSH LM - Dec. $65c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fsh.html
Play Date: 07/23/2005
PLAB (Photronics--$26.28; +0.09; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plab.html
Earnings: 8-15-05
STATUS: Breakout test. PLAB surged Wednesday on strong trade, starting another breakout from its long 23 month cup with handle base, this time clearing the resistance on strong volume. After that break higher it eased back Thursday and Friday on lower volume, tapping at the 18 day EMA (25.13) on the Friday low and snapping back for a modest gain by the close. Volume rose just above average as it did, indicating buyers used the pullback as a chance to move into positions. A big base with positive 27 to 21 accumulation and very strong money flow leading the way higher. Like this low volume test after the breakout; looking to move in as it rebounds on continued solid trade.
Volume: 1.111M Avg Volume: 942.97K
BUY POINT: $26.58 Volume=1.2M Target=$30.89 Stop=$25.12
POSITION: PQF LE - Dec. $25c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/plab.html
Play Date: 07/23/2005
SPN (Superior Energy--$20; +0.90; optionable): Oil and gas services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spn.html
Earnings: 8-2-05
STATUS: Cup with handle breakout test. Volume surged Friday as SPN bounded off the 10 day EMA (19.18) to continue the breakout from its 16 week cup with handle base. SPN broke out in early July and rallied to 20. It spent just over the last week testing that move, falling back to the 18 day EMA (18.87), great near support for a solid breakout, and held. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation has set up the move, and SPN looks ready to take advantage of this buying and power higher to a new all-time high where there is no overhead supply to sell into the move.
Volume: 745.5K Avg Volume: 477.275K
BUY POINT: $20.24 Volume=716K Target=$23.48 Stop=$19.08
POSITION: SPN LD - Dec. $20c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/spn.html
Play Date: 07/23/2005
UBET (Youbet.com--$5.72; -0.04; no options): Online pari-mutuel horse wagering.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ubet.html
Earnings: 8-4-05
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Taking another look at UBET as it works on a two week handle to an 11 week base. Used the 200 day SMA (4.83) as support, an important point where the bigger money either holds a stocks or sells it off. It held, and the strong 4 to 1 accumulation shows there was indeed plenty of buying ongoing during the test and the base. Solid money flow is another indication of the buying. Nice low volume handle is holding the 10 day EMA (5.66), setting up the next move. Want to see the volume run back in as UBET moves through the buy point.
Volume: 47.023K Avg Volume: 376.309K
BUY POINT: $6.05 Volume=564K Target=$7.32 Stop=$5.63
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ubet.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 07/18/2005
IIJI (Internet Initiative Japan--$9.76; +0.01; optionable): Commercial internet access and network solutions in Japan
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iiji.html
After Hours: $9.82
Earnings: August 11
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. IIJI looks set now, showing another tight, low volume doji above the 10 day EMA (9.44) as it tests the big surge from last Monday. Nice quiet action lulling you to sleep before it continues. Need to be ready to move in when it goes because it rips off big chunks in quick moves. To recap: Lots of momentum in IIJI. It exploded higher to start June, rallying over 13. It plumbed back to the 50 day EMA (7.81) where it found support and then started to build back up, rallying off that near support level. After a good test last week it exploded off the 18 day on strong, above average volume. Ready to move in on a continued break higher. With this momentum we want to jump on another move higher.
Volume: 1.396M Avg Volume: 4.367M
BUY POINT: New: $10.12 (orig. $10.73) Volume=5M Target=$12.95 Stop=$10.12
POSITION: IQD AV - Jan. $10c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iiji.html
Play Date: 07/20/2005
PMTI (Palomar Medical Tech--$27.55; +0.6; optionable): Medical Appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pmti.html
Earnings: 7-28-05
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working laterally, forming the handle as the 10 day EMA (26.74) has risen to meet it. Indeed, that pushed PMTI higher Friday though volume was not strong with the price. Still looks solid and ready to go. To recap: A tight two week lateral move has set up the handle to a 19 week base that is ready to send PMTI to an 8 year high. Tried to make the move Tuesday with a high volume surge but could not hold the gain. Positive 4 to 3 accumulation shows net buying, setting the stage for the breakout. Looking for volume to return as it makes the next break higher.
Volume: 102.533K Avg Volume: 247.216K
BUY POINT: $27.95 Volume=390K Target=$32 Stop=$26.34
POSITION: HKQ KE - Nov. $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pmti.html
Play Date: 07/14/2005
SONO (Sonosite--$33.70; +0.40; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sono.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Having to be patient with SONO and let it complete its test of the strong move two weeks back. Volume started to rise to end last week then fell off Friday. Just having to wait and watch for the break higher on strong trade. Looks just about ready. To recap: SONO broke out in early July, moving out of its 7 month reverse head and shoulders base. It rallied to 35 on the move and has faded back the past three sessions on lower and lower below average volume, holding the 18 day EMA on the close. Great position to continue the move higher. Strong 7 to 4 accumulation in the base set up the breakout, and this test gives us a good entry point when the stock starts back up on rising volume.
Volume: 62.77K Avg Volume: 117.461K
BUY POINT: $34.45 Volume=175K Target=$38.55 Stop=$32.98
POSITION: UZS LG - Dec. $35c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sono.html
Play Date: 07/21/2005
STEM (Stemcells--$5.25; -0.11; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stem.html
After Hours: $5.25
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Took the day off Friday on very low volume. STEM looked ready to move Thursday as it bounced up off the 18 day EMA (5.05) after a pullback to test the strong move in early July. Wasn't ready yet, but still looks very good for a rebound this week to continue its breakout move. To recap: STEM broke out from its 6 month base in early July, rallying to near 6.25 on the breakout move. It has spent the past week pulling back to test the move, tapping and holding at the 18 day EMA the past two sessions on the low. Strong 8 to 4 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying during the base and has set the foundation for the run. Strong money flow has held its ground on this pullback, a good indication the stock will hold and resume the move. Looking for a bump in volume as it turns back up and moves through the buy point.
Volume: 1.803M Avg Volume: 2.774M
BUY POINT: $5.55 Volume=4.1M Target=$6.78 Stop=$5.16
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stem.html
Play Date: 07/20/2005
SVNT (Savient Pharma--$4.49; +0.09; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/svnt.html
Earnings: Early August
STATUS: Breakout test. SVNT is poised for the move as it continues to butt up against 4.50 on the highs as it makes higher and higher lows. Volume is still light, not strong enough yet to push it to the breakout. Just being patient and letting it show us the break through 4.50 on volume. That is when we move in. To recap: SVNT broke out in early June, moving out of a 18 week base that it formed as it came off the bottom of its long decline. Excellent 6 to 1 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) set up the move. It broke out and rallied up the 10 day EMA (4.41) and came back the past two weeks to the 18 day EMA (4.31), moving laterally below some resistance at 4.50. Money flow is moving higher ahead of the price and volume is creeping up to average. It is building pressure for the breakout.
Volume: 330.703K Avg Volume: 657.797K
BUY POINT: $4.58 Volume=981K Target=$5.49 Stop=$4.26
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/svnt.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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