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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ADCT; CWTR; FLSH; FNF; IMDC; MRVL; QSII; TSCO
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 07/26/2005
BBY (Best Buy--$74.89; +1.28; optionable): Electronics stores. Splits 3:2 on 8-4-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bby.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. BBY is moving laterally along with the market the past week, holding above the 18 day EMA (73.03) as it bounces back and forth from session to session on below average volume. It is consolidating a strong break higher from June when it reported great sales. It rallied to 77.50 and has tested back. This is an opportune time as it heads toward its split as it can recharge and make a run into that date. Looking for a good break higher on some solid trade to move into positions.
Volume: 2.429M Avg Volume: 3.345M
BUY POINT: $75.32 Volume=4M Target=$81.95 Stop=$74.12
POSITION: BBY LO - Dec. $75c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bby.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 07/26/2005
IDXX (Idexx Labs--$63.91; +0.17; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idxx.html
After Hours: $64.05
STATUS: Breakout test. IDXX has come back to test the 18 day EMA (63.09) the past week after a strong breakout in late June from its 13 month cup base. Solid 16 to 10 accumulation in the base set up the foundation for the breakout. Like to move in on the first test as that 'proves up' the breakout as it shows new buyers wanting to move in even at a higher level. Looking for solid upside trade as it moves through the buy point and on its way to an all-time high.
Volume: 122.072K Avg Volume: 122.091K
BUY POINT: $65.55 Volume=183K Target=$73.45 Stop=$63.89
POSITION: UID AM - Jan. $65c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idxx.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 07/23/2005
CUTR (Cutera--$18.87; -0.03; no options): Medical appliances and equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cutr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A nice tight doji over the 10 day EMA (18.26) as CUTR continues the work on the handle to its base. Very good action and setting up well for its breakout to come. To recap: CUTR is currently forming a short handle to its 15 week base after a strong surge Monday and Tuesday off of the 50 day EMA (17.12) set up the right side of the pattern. It used the 200 day SMA (15.16) as support on the bottom, a good tap and rebound showing the institutions still supported it. A new issue in April 2004, this is a good early base that is setting CUTR up for the breakout to a new all-time high. Positive accumulation and money flow out in front of the price are solid indications it will make the move, but it will likely need another session or two to complete the handle over the 10 day EMA (17.95). Very nice pattern and a solid leader.
Volume: 80.852K Avg Volume: 121.478K
BUY POINT: $19.55 Volume=183K Target=$23.45 Stop=$18.35
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cutr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AGN: Forecast 7-27-05 before the open.
BEN: Forecast 7-28-05. Doji at the 18 day EMA. Ready to resume the move.
CDIS: Forecast 8-2-05 after the close.
CELL: Forecast 7-28-05 or 8-8-05. Set to make the breakout.
CHTT: Forecast 9-19-05 after the close.
CI: Forecast 8-2-05 after the close.
CTSH: Forecast 7-28-05 before the open.
DNA: No split announced on 7-6-05 but great earnings. Starting the move back up with a bounce off the 18 day EMA.
EAT: Forecast tentatively 8-11-05
ENR: Forecast 7-28-05
EXBD: Forecast 7-26-05. Good earnings and was up after hours but no word on a split yet.
FNF: Forecast 7-27-05 before the open. Announced a $0.25 quarterly dividend after hours and was up on the news. May take some steam out of the chance for a split announcement tomorrow morning.
HOC: Forecast mid-August. Struggling to hold the 18 day EMA/
IVGN: Forecast 7-28-05
KSWS: Forecast 7-28-05
LLL: Forecast 7-26-05 before the open. 35.5% jump in earnings gapped it higher. No split announced with the earnings.
LM: Forecast 7-26-05 before the open. We were looking for a bounce higher off the 10 day EMA on the earnings to move in, but it did not happen as LM gapped lower. The big move into earnings had expectations built in too high.
MRVL: Forecast mid-August.
OSK: Forecast 8-2-05
RMD: Forecast mid-August
RYN: Forecast 7-26-2005. No split but nice earnings pushed RYN to a solid breakout.
SLB: No split 7-22-05 before the open as SLB remains one of the few energy sector hold outs. Running out of a bit of steam but still solid.
SSI: Forecast 7-28-05
STN: Forecast 7-28-05
SU: Forecast 7-28-05.
TRMB: Forecast 7-26-05. Rising earnings were not enough. Was getting hit after hours.
TSCO: Looking for next possible date as TSCO continues to surge higher for us.
URBN: Forecast 8-11-05
WFMI: Forecast 7-28-05. Coming back into the date but has to get over 120.
WFT: Forecast 7-28-05 before the open.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/26/2005
ANSI (Advanced Neuromo--$40.83; +0.16; optionable): Medical instruments. Forecast 7-28-05
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 6-6-03 at $48.90.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ansi.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. A bit low for a split announcement, but like the pattern that has set up if it can give us a breakout move. ANSI has set up a 7 month cup with handle base, part of a larger 18 month double bottom with handle. A breakout from this pattern starts ANSI on the way to a new all-time high. Excellent 8 to 3 accumulation in the cup with handle (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) is setting up that move, and this test back tot eh 18 day EMA (40.44) the past week is a good test to shake out the sellers and send the stock toward the breakout. Looking for the breakout move to enter this one, and it will likely take the earnings results to do it.
Volume: 312.782K Avg Volume: 369.933K
BUY POINT: $41.38 Volume=555K Target=$47.55 Stop=$40.32
POSITION: UAI KH - Nov. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ansi.html
Play Date: 07/26/2005
PHM (Pulte Homes--$91.71; +1.52; optionable): Residential construction. Forecast to announce a split 7-27-05 after the close. One of the last home builders yet to split.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 12-11-03 at $84.90.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/phm.html
After Hours: $91.63
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. PHM is making the second test of the breakout from its 14 week cup with handle base. Broke out in mid-June and rallied to 95. It has tested the 18 day EMA (90.13) on this pullback, and that looks to have set the move as it heads into earnings after the close Wednesday. Excellent 5 to 1 accumulation in the base shows plenty of buying that provided the foundation for the breakout and run higher. Looking to move in ahead of the close tomorrow, or if PHM starts higher during the session and moves through the buy point on solid trade we will start positions then.
Volume: 1.904M Avg Volume: 1.639M
BUY POINT: $91.95 Volume=2.5M Target=$101.85 Stop=$89.89
POSITION: PHM JR - Oct. $90c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/phm.html
Continuing Plays:
Play Date: 07/16/2005
CELL (Brightpoint--$24.11; +0.15; optionable): Wholesale electronics. Forecast to announce a split 8-9-05 as no word on the split today.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 9-15-03 at $27.50. Before that it announced a 3:2 split on 7-29-05 at $25.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cell.html
After Hours: $24
STATUS: Breakout test. Low volume, tight range as CELL works laterally over the 10 day EMA (23.97) in a very nice and quite breakout test. It is set up for the move and just needs a trigger. To recap: CELL broke out from a 10 week cup with handle in late June, posting a strong gain on strong volume to end the month. It continued up close to 25 and then spent last week easing back to test the move, coming back to the 10 day EMA on low, below average volume. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers as it consolidated. Nice pullback from a solid leader that is setting up the next run higher and giving us an entry point. Want to see the volume jump as it resumes the move higher.
Volume: 77.171K Avg Volume: 277.827K
BUY POINT: $24.78 Volume=458K Target=$28.98 Stop=$23.74
POSITION: ULN JX - Oct. $22.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cell.html
Play Date: 07/23/2005
CHTT (Chattem--$45.86; -0.16; optionable): Branded over the counter healthcare and dietary products. Forecast to announce a split 9-19-05 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-30-02 at $44.60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chtt.html
After Hours: $45.87
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Working laterally on very low volume and in a narrow range, holding above the 10 day EMA (45.62). Volume spiked Monday, but CHTT could not hold the break higher. Still solid and ready to make the breakout move. To recap: CHTT spent the past two weeks moving in a tight flat range above the 10 day EMA, forming the handle and setting up a breakout move from its 15 week base. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) is setting up the breakout that will send CHTT on its next leg higher. Money flow is also solid, a very good indication that the stock will make the breakout move in the near future, sending the stock to a new all-time high.
Volume: 151.526K Avg Volume: 264.955K
BUY POINT: $46.49 Volume=396K Target=$52.45 Stop=$45.22
POSITION: HQT LI - Dec. $45c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chtt.html
Play Date: 07/09/2005
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$49.24; +0.4; optionable): Business software. Forecast 7-28-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-12-04 at $47.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
After Hours: $49.09
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Nice pattern has formed up the past 19 weeks as CTHS held the 50 day EMA (47.27) in the right shoulder of its pattern. Volume ahs started to creep higher the past two sessions as CTSH reached down to the 50 day EMA and rebounded. It gapped higher Tuesday. Looks ready to make the breakout move.
Volume: 1.078M Avg Volume: 1.418M
BUY POINT: $49.78 Volume=2.4M Target=$55.85 Stop=$47.94
POSITION: UPU JI - Oct. $45c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctsh.html
Play Date: 07/23/2005
SSI (Spectrasite--$76.18; +0.36; optionable): Wireless tower operator. Forecast to announce a split 7-28-05.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 on 8-22-05 at $63.00.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssi.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Low volume continues as SSI works laterally in a very tight range along the 10 day EMA (75.80). It is set up to make the move; just need to see a catalyst. To recap: SSI broke out in early June from a 12 week cup base and rallied up the 10 day EMA into early July. It then peaked and eased back the past three weeks, moving laterally in a narrow range toward the 18 day EMA (74.97) on low, below average volume. A very good test of the breakout move, setting up for the next leg higher. As usual, want to see volume as it continues the breakout run to show that the buyers are back in the game even after it has moved higher.
Volume: 172.9K Avg Volume: 550.798K
BUY POINT: $76.62 Volume=600K Target=$85.95 Stop=$74.69
POSITION: SSI JO - Oct. $75c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssi.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/21/2005
DKS (Dicks Sporting Goods--$39.03; -0.01; optionable): Sporting goods stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dks.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Has gone dormant along the 18 day EMA (39.02), trading in a very narrow range on below average volume. This is often the calm before the storm as a stock disappears off the radar screens due to inactivity. Volume edged higher Tuesday as it showed a very tight doji. It is getting ready and we just need to see the break higher on volume. To recap: DKS is testing the 18 day EMA after a low volume breakout and run from 38 to just over 40. This break higher came out of a 7 month base; it got some volume in late June but after that the trade dried up. Like the way it has held the 18 day EMA on the pullback. Want to see some volume as it moves higher and through the 10 day EMA (39.17) and through the buy point.
Volume: 347.4K Avg Volume: 635.805K
BUY POINT: $39.38 Volume=800K Target=$44.32 Stop=$38.89
POSITION: DKS LH - Dec. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dks.html
Play Date: 07/23/2005
SSNC (SSS&C Technologies--$33.39; +0.4; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/ssnc.html
After Hours: $33.23
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Continues to test the 18 day EMA (33.11) in a pullback after the breakout. Very, very low volume as it holds the 18 day, and a nice quiet pullback such as this is what you want to see as the market consolidates. To recap: SSNC broke out in early June from a 16 month cup with handle base. It fell back and set up once more, holding above the 50 day EMA (31.13). After that test it started higher and rallied near 35. The past two weeks it is coming back to test and reset the move, holding at the 18 day EMA with a big doji on low, below average volume. A nice, easy test of the move higher, setting up the next run. This is a strong market leader both in sales and earnings growth as well as technical pattern. Strong money flow is leading higher, and after this pullback to reset the stock we are looking for that to lead a stronger volume move higher.
Volume: 70.197K Avg Volume: 256.291K
BUY POINT: $34.26 Volume=325K Target=$39.45 Stop=$33.05
POSITION: QUN JG - Oct. $35c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ssnc.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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