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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AMED; ANSI; BELM; CDIS; CUTR; FNF; MSCC; OSK; PHM; SSI; SUN; TSCO; WFMI
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 07/28/2005
STGS (Stage Stores--$45.09; +0.71; optionable): Apparel stores. Splits 3:2 on 8-22-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stgs.html
STATUS: Breakout test. STGS broke out from a 6 month cup or saucer base in early June after hugging the 200 day SMA (39.67) on the lows. Nice break higher and strong rally to 48 on that move. It has come back on low volume to test the move, holding at 44 on the lows. That holds the breakout move and sets it up for a break higher to continue. STGS bounced through the 10 day EMA (45.04) Thursday, but volume did not go with it. Looking for the return of volume as STGS continues higher. That is when we move in.
Volume: 74.415K Avg Volume: 193.409K
BUY POINT: $45.65 Volume=290K Target=$51.22 Stop=$44.65
POSITION: QCU JI - Oct. $45c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stgs.html
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 07/28/2005
MMSI (Merit Medical Systems--$17.45; +0.36; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mmsi.html
STATUS: 18 day EMA test. MMSI was a frequent splitter from 2001 through 2003 before it fell into the current 20 month base. It broke back through the 200 day SMA in May, then made the real breakout (at least from the base that formed off the bottom of the long decline) earlier this month on strong volume. It rallied over 18 and has come back to test the 18 day EMA (16.83). Superb money flow is leading MMSI higher, and volume jumped the past two sessions as MMSI tested the 18 day EMA and then started a solid move Thursday. Ready to step in as it continues the move.
Volume: 251.011K Avg Volume: 156.459K
BUY POINT: $17.74 Volume=235K Target=$20.44 Stop=$16.79
POSITION: RMQ AQ - Jan. $17.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mmsi.html
Play Date: 07/28/2005
RESP (Respironics--$37.33; +0.91; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/resp.html
STATUS: Flat base. Taking another look at this post-split stock. It is working in a 6 week flat base that is consolidating a sharp break higher to start June. It got a bit wild Monday and Tuesday, dipping to the 50 day EMA (35.50) on the lows but then rebounding on volume. That looks like it was the shakeout because Thursday RESP was up on strong trade, tapping at 38 on the high. Looking for it to continue higher on solid trade. We will start a position on that move. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying during this base. Money flow is excellent and has turned up higher ahead of price.
Volume: 494.747K Avg Volume: 368.638K
BUY POINT: $37.95 Volume=593K Target=$43 Stop=$36.19
POSITION: RBQ AG - Jan. $35c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/resp.html
Continuing Leader Play:
Play Date: 07/26/2005
IDXX (Idexx Labs--$65.29; +0.78; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idxx.html
After Hours: $65.51
STATUS: Breakout test. Ran up to the buy point right at the close but volume was not quite there as it rallied. Nonetheless, IDXX looks ready to continue the breakout move. To recap: IDXX has come back to test the 18 day EMA (63.46) the past week after a strong breakout in late June from its 13 month cup base. Solid 16 to 10 accumulation in the base set up the foundation for the breakout. Like to move in on the first test as that 'proves up' the breakout as it shows new buyers wanting to move in even at a higher level. Looking for solid upside trade as it moves through the buy point and on its way to an all-time high.
Volume: 91.76K Avg Volume: 122.245K
BUY POINT: $65.55 Volume=183K Target=$73.45 Stop=$63.89
POSITION: UID AM - Jan. $65c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idxx.html
Play Date: 07/16/2005
IDBE (ID Biomedical--$19.72; +0.36; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idbe.html
After Hours: $19.71
STATUS: Breakout test. After a big surge early in the month and then again last week, IDBE has come back to test the 10 day EMA (19.41) on lower volume. The first move of the month broke it out of its 8 month flat base, and this is the first test of that move, our favorite entry point when we see the stock rebound on volume. Super stock, super leader, and setting up for a bigger rally here. We are ready to pick up some more shares on that move.
Volume: 246.204K Avg Volume: 281.109K
BUY POINT: New positions: $20.05 (orig. positions: $19.58) Volume=350K Target=$23.25 Stop=$19.22
POSITION: QQ LD - Dec. $20c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idbe.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AGN: Forecast 7-27-05 before the open. No split announcement but a nice break higher on the earnings results.
BEN: Forecast 7-28-05. Strong earnings but no split announcement.
CDIS: Forecast 8-2-05 after the close.
CELL: Forecast 8-8-05. No split announcement this week but CELL is ready to start the breakout.
CHTT: Forecast 9-19-05 after the close.
CI: Forecast 8-2-05 after the close.
CTSH: Forecast 7-28-05 before the open. No split. Gapped higher on the earnings but reversed to the 50 day EMA.
DNA: Researching next split date.
EAT: Forecast tentatively 8-11-05
ENR: Forecast 7-28-05. No split announcement and not much action on the earnings results.
HOC: Forecast mid-August. Trying to hold the 18 day EMA.
IVGN: Forecast 7-28-05. No announcement after the close.
KSWS: Forecast 7-28-05. A long shot given the current price. Good results.
MRVL: Forecast mid-August.
OSK: Forecast 8-2-05
PHM: Announced the split 2-27-05 after the close.
RMD: Forecast mid-August
SSI: Forecast 7-28-05. Surged though no split announced.
STN: Forecast 7-28-05. Good move on earnings but STN continues to hold off on that next split.
SU: Forecast 7-28-05. Announced a dividend but not a split even though it is higher than its other split prices. Still looks good on this test.
TSCO: Looking for next possible date as TSCO continues to surge higher for us.
URBN: Forecast 8-11-05
WFMI: Forecast 7-28-05. Well, it made it over 120. It did not announce a split but it exploded higher after hours, up around $16.
WFT: Forecast 7-28-05 before the open. Beat the street but did not follow other energy stocks by announcing a split. A bit light on price and will be ready next time around as it continues the upside move.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 07/28/2005
WC (Wellchoice Empire Blue--$65.95; +1.55; optionable): Healthcare plans. Forecast to announce a split 8-3-05.
BACKGROUND: WC has never announced a split before, making this a wildcard as we don't have any information on the board's agenda. UNH has announced, however, and they tend to run in packs.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wc.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. After a breakout in early June and an excellent surge up through the first week of July, WC sold back in the concerns over healthcare plans and Medicare payments. WC held the 50 day EMA (65.22) on its fade, a perfect support level after a nice strong run. UNH has started back up, and Thursday WC volume shot above average as it moved back over the 50 day EMA after a 1 day breach. Looking for strong trade to continue as it moves up through the buy point. Like strong volume at the 50 day EMA as that indicates big money moving back in at that important support level.
Volume: 619.6K Avg Volume: 281.785K
BUY POINT: $66.48 Volume=350K Target=$74.78 Stop=$64.97
POSITION: WC AM - Jan. $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wc.html
Continuing Plays:
Play Date: 07/16/2005
CELL (Brightpoint--$23.77; -0.34; optionable): Wholesale electronics. Forecast to announce a split 8-9-05 as no word on the split today.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 9-15-03 at $27.50. Before that it announced a 3:2 split on 7-29-05 at $25.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cell.html
After Hours: $23.79
STATUS: Breakout test. Good price move Thursday as CELL knocks on the door of the breakout. Volume did not move with it Thursday, but it was much stronger and above average Wednesday as CELL reached down below the 18 day EMA (23.64) on the low and rebounded to close above that level. Just needs to show some volume as it moves through the buy point and clears near resistance. To recap: CELL broke out from a 10 week cup with handle in late June, posting a strong gain on strong volume to end the month. It continued up close to 25 and then spent last week easing back to test the move, coming back to the 10 day EMA on low, below average volume. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers as it consolidated. Nice pullback from a solid leader that is setting up the next run higher and giving us an entry point. Want to see the volume jump as it resumes the move higher.
Volume: 287.153K Avg Volume: 275.347K
BUY POINT: $24.78 Volume=458K Target=$28.98 Stop=$23.74
POSITION: ULN JX - Oct. $22.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cell.html
Play Date: 07/23/2005
CHTT (Chattem--$45.55; -0.21; optionable): Branded over the counter healthcare and dietary products. Forecast to announce a split 9-19-05 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 10-30-02 at $44.60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chtt.html
After Hours: $45.59
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume exploded Thursday as CHTT continued to hold in a very narrow range right at the 10 day EMA (45.63). Looks very good; just being patient and want to see that strong volume continue as CHTT makes the breakout move. To recap: CHTT spent the past two weeks moving in a tight flat range above the 10 day EMA, forming the handle and setting up a breakout move from its 15 week base. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) is setting up the breakout that will send CHTT on its next leg higher. Money flow is also solid, a very good indication that the stock will make the breakout move in the near future, sending the stock to a new all-time high.
Volume: 492.909K Avg Volume: 262.72K
BUY POINT: $46.49 Volume=396K Target=$52.45 Stop=$45.22
POSITION: HQT LI - Dec. $45c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chtt.html
Play Date: 07/02/2005
EAT (Brinker Intl.--$40.95; +0.25; optionable): Restaurants (Chili's, Romano's, On the Boarder, etc.). Kind of a wild card at this time of the year and tentatively forecast for 8-11-05, but a great pattern has set up.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 12-9-00 at $41.00.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eat.html
STATUS: Breakout test. EAT continues its very low volume, very tight range lateral move along the 18 day EMA (40.52) as it continues the test of the early June breakout. Nice 18 week base exploded with a breakout that sent EAT to 42. It has come back to test, and has moved laterally the past 4 weeks, setting up for the next move. Volume showed some life Thursday but was still below average. Being patient and letting it show us the strong volume move. Need to see the volume.
Volume: 230.7K Avg Volume: 716.645K
BUY POINT: $40.97 Volume=1.2M Target=$46.98 Stop=$40.22
POSITION: EAT JH - Oct. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eat.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/21/2005
DKS (Dicks Sporting Goods--$39.43; +0.53; optionable): Sporting goods stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dks.html
STATUS: Breakout test. DKS was up Thursday but volume was not moving with it. Moved back above the 18 day EMA (39.06) after slightly undercutting that level Wednesday but rebounded well on rising volume. DKS has been moving on low volume for over two months; would like to see at least a modicum of decent trade as it resumes the move higher. Good test and ready to move; if we see the volume it is also ready for a buy. To recap: DKS went dormant along the 18 day EMA the past two weeks, trading in a very narrow range on below average volume. This is often the calm before the storm as a stock disappears off the radar screens due to inactivity. Volume edged higher Tuesday as it showed a very tight doji. It is getting ready and we just need to see the break higher on volume. This break higher came out of a 7 month base; it got some volume in late June but after that the trade dried up. Like the way it has held the 18 day EMA on the pullback.
Volume: 383.2K Avg Volume: 635.359K
BUY POINT: New: $39.62 (orig. $39.38) Volume=800K Target=$44.55 Stop=$38.89
POSITION: DKS LH - Dec. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dks.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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