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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BCON; PWR
Thursday night play results
FIC: Nice low volume day of rest as the market sold.
END: Gapped on volume, but after that gap it kept selling most of the session so we decided to hold off, let it hold and start back up.
NWRE: Lower volume day of rest. Still a solid and ready to move, holding its own despite the market.
New Plays:
Play Date: 08/06/2005
APCC (American Power Conversion--$27.09; -0.33; optionable): Surge protection, power backup, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apcc.html
After Hours: $27.66
STATUS: Breakout test. APCC surged higher in late July on a strong earnings report, breaking out of a 15 week double bottom with handle base. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the base (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying that set the foundation for a breakout and run. This pullback was on low, below average volume, showing just some profit taking after a strong move. Money flow remains strong, still moving higher even on this test, a very good positive divergence. Looking to step in on the rebound from this first breakout test, one of our favorite entry points.
Volume: 734.376K Avg Volume: 1.111M
BUY POINT: $27.55 Volume=1.4M Target=$32.75 Stop=$26.55
POSITION: PWQ LE - Dec. $25c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/apcc.html
Play Date: 08/06/2005
NVDA (Nvidia--$28.25; +0.7; optionable): Semiconductors for gaming, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
After Hours: $28.29
Earnings: 8-11-05
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Taking another look at NVDA as it has come off of the late July dips that acted as a continuation of the handle to its 22 week base. Excellent 8 to 2 accumulation in the pattern has set up the breakout to come. As the market sold Friday NVDA posted a gain on rising, slightly above average volume. Has held up well, going about its own business in its base. You like to see that because it shows the action in the pattern is serious and not at the whim of the market. That Friday volume was a good sign and looking for even better trade as NVDA moves through the buy point.
Volume: 5.701M Avg Volume: 5.789M
BUY POINT: $28.95 Volume=7M Target=$34.72 Stop=$27.24
POSITION: UVA LY - Dec. $27.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nvda.html
Play Date: 08/06/2005
WRES (Warren Resources--$11.08; +0.08; no options): Oil and gas services company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wres.html
After Hours: $10.98
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A new issue in December 2004, this is WRES' first base. That is our favorite time to enter a new stock as it lets the first hype settle down and the IPO buyers get their selling over. After that it is just the stock and its earnings setting its position in the market, and that shows us whether it gets the thumbs up from the big money. WRES looks to be doing that with a nice 26 week base, working on the handle above the 18 day EMA (10.87) the past two weeks. Excellent 7 to 2 accumulation in the base shows a lot of buying, and money flow is surging higher ahead of price. It looks to be right on all fours, including a winning sector. Just waiting for it to show us the breakout move.
Volume: 92.509K Avg Volume: 162.832K
BUY POINT: $11.48 Volume=250K Target=$13.75 Stop=$10.82
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wres.html
Continuing play that is ready:
Play Date: 08/01/2005
KLAC (KLA Tencor--$50.36; +0.12; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/klac.html
After Hours: $50.30
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Really like the way KLAC has basically ignored the market the past week. Yes it sold back but volume was very light and the losses quite modest as it came back to tap the 18 day EMA (49.64) on the Friday low and then rebounding for a modest gain. It remains set up to show us the breakout. To recap: Responded well to the INTC earnings back even if Intel did not. That broke it higher and tested the breakout waters, moving up to its February high at 51 in its 20 week pattern. Positive 5 to 4 accumulation shows net buying along with the strong money flow. Two Fridays back volume shot up as KLAC surged to the breakout that cleared the February highs. A low volume test has followed while the market sells, setting up a nice rebound move.
Volume: 3.453M Avg Volume: 5.125M
BUY POINT: $51.55 Volume=5.5M Target=$59.45 Stop=$49.82
POSITION: KCQ LJ - Dec. $50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/klac.html
New buy point on continuing play:
Play Date: 08/06/2005
OPMR (Optimal Robotics--$20.82; -0.38; optionable): Credit card, electronic transfer payment systems technology and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/opmr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Already has made us some money, and this test is setting up the next move higher to make us more. Looking to add positions as it does. OPMR shot higher to end July, making a high volume breakout from its nicely formed 18 week cup with handle base. The base formed along the 50 day EMA (18.67), garnering strong 5 to 2 accumulation along the way. That buying set up the breakout, and after this test OPMR will be ready to continue the move. When it starts higher on a good jump in volume we move in to take positions. The first breakout test is one of our favorite entry points as it shows buyers still ready to buy into the stock even at a higher price, using the test to enter after the short term profit takers bail out. Excellent money flow is still leading higher even as OPMR makes this test.
Volume: 165.807K Avg Volume: 303.252K
BUY POINT: $21.25 Volume=455K Target=$25.45 Stop=$20.05
POSITION: OQG AD - Jan. $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/opmr.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, CELG, BLUD, BR, COH, HW, PSYS, RTSX, STN
CELG: Slipped below the 10 day EMA in its low volume lateral move, but still solid as it sets up for the next move.
BLUD: Recovered the 200 day SMA last week but is now struggling at the 50 day. It got further than we thought it would so it may make it through this level as well.
COH: Closed at the 50 day EMA on rising trade. Needs to hold here.
STN: Doji a the 50 day EMA may signal the pullback is over.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
IDIX: Solid breakout in July from this biotech, rallying to 28. It tested and bounced right back up, just what you want to see. As it hit the prior high volume was lower, however, and it started to fade last week. A lower volume second peak at a high is not good to see. Volume has not spiked on the selling but this needs to form back up some to give us any comfort in it.
USPI: A short cup with handle has formed the past four weeks, a bit shorter than you would like. Still, it has rallied higher on strong trade and is making a nice test of the 10 day EMA, showing a tight doji over that level Friday.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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