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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: FTO; PWR
Best Plays:
1) FLR: Nice breakout test.
2) NVDA: Volume was up Friday as NVDA showed some great relative strength.
3) MSTR: Another good breakout test underway.
4) PPD: Has tested the 50 day EMA and is now ready.
5) PPDI: Nice test.
6) TALX: Straining to move higher.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/06/2005
FLR (Fluor Corp.--$63.98; -1.07; optionable): Construction and construction engineering
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Good results in late July sent FLR higher and out of a 21 week cup with handle base. Strong volume on the move, but then the market started to stutter step and FLR then moved laterally while the 10 day EMA (63.40) played catch up. Friday FLR reached down and tapped the 10 day on the low and rebounded to recoup some losses. Nice breakout from a solid pattern sporting solid 6 to 3 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume), showing plenty of buyers during the base. This move has taken it to a new all-time high. After this modest, low volume pullback it will be ready to continue the breakout move. Money flow is strong, still moving higher as the stock makes this lateral move. Just going to let it make the test and then move in when it shows a higher volume rebound.
Volume: 421.2K Avg Volume: 638.5K
BUY POINT: $64.85 Volume=775K Target=$72.95 Stop=$63.21
POSITION: FLR AM - Jan. $65c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/flr.html
Play Date: 08/06/2005
MSTR (Microstrategy--$73.39; -1.98; optionable): Business intelligence software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mstr.html
After Hours: $73.95
STATUS: Breakout test. MSTR exploded higher to end July as it reported strong results. The move broke it out of a 7 month cup with handle base sporting strong 8 to 4 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume). That accumulation shows strong buying and support for the stock and it sets the foundation for a run higher. The breakout took MSTR to a 4+ year high. Nice low volume test of the break higher, and looking to move in as it rebounds on a strong dose of above average volume.
Volume: 464.251K Avg Volume: 551.049K
BUY POINT: $74.25 Volume=750K Target=$85 Stop=$72.68
POSITION: EOU AO - Jan. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mstr.html
Play Date: 08/06/2005
NVDA (Nvidia--$28.25; +0.7; optionable): Semiconductors for gaming, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
After Hours: $28.29
Earnings: 8-11-05
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Taking another look at NVDA as it has come off of the late July dips that acted as a continuation of the handle to its 22 week base. Excellent 8 to 2 accumulation in the pattern has set up the breakout to come. As the market sold Friday NVDA posted a gain on rising, slightly above average volume. Has held up well, going about its own business in its base. You like to see that because it shows the action in the pattern is serious and not at the whim of the market. That Friday volume was a good sign and looking for even better trade as NVDA moves through the buy point.
Volume: 5.701M Avg Volume: 5.789M
BUY POINT: $28.95 Volume=7M Target=$34.72 Stop=$27.24
POSITION: UVA LY - Dec. $27.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvda.html
Play Date: 08/06/2005
PPD (Pre-Paid Legal--$46; +0.61; optionable): Fixed cost legal services (like insurance for legal problems)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppd.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. First test of the 50 day EMA (44.64) after the early June breakout from a 6 month flat base that formed using the 50 day as support. Nice run from 38 to 55, and now an orderly, low volume test, coming back to key support at the 50 day. Solid 6 to 3 accumulation in the base set up the move. Money flow has remained strong on the pullback. Volume was up Friday as PPD moved up off the 50 day. Looking for a break back through the 10 day EMA (46.79) on strong volume to start the play. Can run fast when it gets underway.
Volume: 83.7K Avg Volume: 90.5K
BUY POINT: $46.88 Volume=150K Target=$54.45 Stop=$44.55
POSITION: PPD AI - Jan. $45c (52 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ppd.html
Play Date: 08/06/2005
USPH (U.S. Physical Therapy--$18.45; -0.08; no options): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usph.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. USPH has rallied back up to an all-time high, matching its early 2001 and mid-2002 highs, now taking a 5 week breather from a strong May to July run up the 10 and 18 day EMA (18.75). Good volume on the upside sessions even with the up and down action last week as it reported strong earnings Tuesday and shot higher that session. It tested that move as the market sold to end the week, holding right on top of the 50 day SMA (18.36). Strong money flow is leading higher. After this pullback we are looking for some continued strong volume as USPH rebounds and moves through the short term moving averages.
Volume: 104.244K Avg Volume: 350K
BUY POINT: $18.92 Volume=150K Target=$22.15 Stop=$18.11
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/usph.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 08/04/2005
AMX (America Movil--$21.7; -0.27; optionable): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still making the test of the breakout form the end of July, slipping just below the 10 day EMA (21.75) on Friday's close. Very low trade Friday shows few sellers on this pullback. That means once this pullback finds its bottom it will be ready to rebound. Looks as if it is there and ready to move higher this week. To recap: AMX broke out from a 14 week cup with handle base in mid-June and rallied up the 18 day EMA (21.40) before a strong surge last week on the telecom news about potentially some real deregulation. It took a breather after it split in late July, and that gave it the launch point for that big break higher. It came back from that move with a nice, easy test the past week, falling back to the 10 day EMA. This pullback has set up the next move, ready to follow the money flow higher once more after this market pullback has run its course.
Volume: 1.703M Avg Volume: 3.895M
BUY POINT: $22.21 Volume=5M Target=$25.55 Stop=$21.54
POSITION: AMX KD - Nov. $20c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amx.html
Play Date: 07/30/2005
COSI (Cosi--$8.34; -0.14; optionable): Low end restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cosi.html
After Hours: $8.30
Earnings: 8-12-05
STATUS: Breakout test. Ended last week with a pullback to the 18 day EMA (8.30), undercutting that on the low and rebounding to hold that level with a big doji with tail. After a pullback that often signals a rebound is coming. Tried the move early in the month but the market selling pushed it back. Now we see if it can give us the strong move higher to continue the breakout move. To recap: Surged out of an 18 week cup with handle base three weeks back, rallying to 9.53 on the high. Volume backed off as it slowed down and came back to test that move, then picked up Friday as it reversed and recovered the 18 day EMA by the close. Excellent 5 to 1 accumulation in the base shows plenty of buying and great money flow is leading the move higher. Expecting COSI to follow it higher and continuing the breakout move to a new all-time high.
Volume: 333.703K Avg Volume: 331.714K
BUY POINT: $8.65 Volume=485K Target=$9.72 Stop=$8.21
POSITION: CQA AU - Jan. $7.50c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cosi.html
Play Date: 08/03/2005
MMSI (Merit Medical Systems--$17.11; -0.14; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mmsi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still holding the 10 and 18 day EMA (17.21, 17.03), working laterally on low volume to end the week. Solid trade Wednesday, and it looked as if MMSI was ready to take off and continue the breakout move. It took a breather as the market sold to end the week, keeping its powder dry for this week. Still looks very solid and ready to move higher. To recap: After a strong run in 2003, MMSI has spent the past 18 months in a long base. It bottomed in late 2004, bounced, and then formed a very nice 7 month cup with handle base. It broke out in mid-July on a solid volume surge. It rallied to 18 on a strong move and has spent the past three weeks coming back to test the move, holding the 18 day EMA as it made the test. Volume spiked the past two sessions, posting a solid gain Wednesday. Strong volume is leading higher and MMSI looks ready to follow it.
Volume: 182.619K Avg Volume: 165.595K
BUY POINT: $17.74 Volume=235K Target=$20.44 Stop=$16.79
POSITION: RMQ AQ - Jan. $17.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mmsi.html
Play Date: 07/27/2005
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Product Dev.--$56.38; -0.24; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
Earnings: Released 7-13-05
After Hours: $56.35
STATUS: Test breakout. Holding over the 18 day EMA (55.90) on low, below average volume, showing a doji Friday on the candlestick chart. This all suggests that there is no selling, and that once the market gets through the recent selling PPDI will be ready to move right back up. The fact that it did not sell much at all during the recent overall pullback shows it has strength. Being patient and waiting for the move above the 10 day EMA (56.82). To recap: PPDI exploded higher 7-13 on news it beat earnings estimates and upped Q3 and Q4. The move broke it out of a 13 week base on some very strong volume. After rallying to 60 it has pulled back to test the 10 day EMA, moving lower on declining volume. Strong money flow has surged ahead of the price and is holding well on the test. Looking for PPDI to turn back up from here and continue the breakout move.
Volume: 265.136K Avg Volume: 367.405K
BUY POINT: $57.38 Volume=547K Target=$64.48 Stop=$56.35
POSITION: PJQ AK - Jan. $55c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ppdi.html
Play Date: 07/25/2005
RIG (Transocean--$58.64; -0.94; optionable): Oil and gas exploration and drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rig.html
After Hours: $58.91
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher Tuesday on solid volume as RIG reported very strong earnings. It waffled after the move, however, as the market overall came under pressure. It tested the 10 day EMA (58.21), filling the gap higher; that helps set the continuation of the breakout. The pattern was a base on base, a 9 week double bottom with handle breakout and then a 6 week ascending triangle; this combination can provide a strong rally. Looked as if RIG was ready for the races to start the week, but faded with the market. It is set to move again, and we are ready to move in on a solid volume advance through the buy point.
Volume: 3.416M Avg Volume: 4.367M
BUY POINT: $59.75 Volume=4.6M Target=$67.44 Stop=$57.47
POSITION: RIG KK - Nov. $55c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rig.html
Play Date: 08/03/2005
TALX (Talx Corp.--$38.64; +0.07; optionable): Automated employment and income verification, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/talx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Another tight doji over the 10 day EMA (37.70) as TALX continues its low volume lateral move that tests the gap higher to start the month. Set up well, just needs to show us the volume return as it resumes the break out move. To recap: Strong run for TALX this year after breaking out in April. It has made two gaps higher, one in early July and then again to start August. It gapped Monday on news of strong earnings and has come back on lower volume to test that move. It has pretty much come back to the 10 day EMA to complete the test, setting up the rebound move. Strong stock and we want to be ready if it turns back up from here. Strong money flow is leading higher and we expect TALX to continue to follow it. Moved up the buy point to let it clear the highs it hit the last two sessions.
Volume: 242.919K Avg Volume: 256.752K
BUY POINT: $39.38 Volume=400K Target=$44.95 Stop=$37.54
POSITION: TUB LG - Dec. $35c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/talx.html
Play Date: 08/03/2005
ULTI (Ultimate Software--$17.28; -0.28; optionable): Payroll and workforce management solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ulti.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A bit wild Friday with a test down to the 50 day EMA (16.73), but then a nice rebound to close just below the 18 day EMA (17.43). It may not be done testing, but like the way buyers came back in after the test of the key 50 day MA. Going to be patient and let ULTI show us the strong volume break higher. To recap: ULTI jumped out of a 15 week ascending triangle the last week of July with a strong volume surge higher as it reported strong earnings numbers. After that surge it has moved laterally for a couple of weeks, holding over the 10 day EMA and then that quick tap of the 50 day EMA as it consolidates. Just being patient and letting it set up and show us the continued breakout move. Outstanding 6 to 1 accumulation in the base has set up the move, and it looks ready to continue following the strong money flow higher.
Volume: 136.333K Avg Volume: 170.682K
BUY POINT: $18.05 Volume=256K Target=$20.88 Stop=$17.61
POSITION: JUL KW - Nov. $17.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ulti.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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