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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: BJS; DVN; FTO; MDR; MSTR; MUR; SOSA; XTO
Best Plays:
1) MINI: Nice test of the breakout from a market leader.
2) JWN: Ready to fall further.
3) IEX: Nice move on strong volume and still ready for more.
4) NXTP: Sweet pattern.
5) PPDI: Nice doji at the 18 day EMA and a good sector for now
6) RIG: Now it looks ready.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/10/2005
MINI (Mobile Mini--$40.57; +1.05; optionable): Portable storage containers, mobile offices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mini.html
STATUS: Breakout test. MINI makes small metal buildings. With the construction boom its business has been sweet. It broke out from a 16 week cup with handle base to end July, surging to 44. It has come back to test the move, holding the 18 day EMA (39.83) the past three sessions and bouncing Wednesday on another surge in very strong trade. Nice base that used the 50 day EMA (38.43) as support. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation in the pattern (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying remains. Strong money flow is leading higher as well, another good indication of solid buying. Looking to move in on a continued strong volume move higher.
Volume: 281.106K Avg Volume: 100K
BUY POINT: $40.95 Volume=200K Target=$46.95 Stop=$39.69
POSITION: UAC KH - Nov. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mini.html
Play Date: 08/10/2005
GPRO (Gen Probe--$46.5; 0; optionable): Medical equipment (probe-based products for diagnosis of diseases.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpro.html
After Hours: $48
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After disappointing earnings in early May gapped GPRO lower and started the current 14 week base. It gapped higher to start the month as it reported better than expected earnings; ah the earnings game. Positive 3 to 2 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers and that is all it takes to support a breakout move. It has come back to fill most of that early August gap higher, showing a doji on the 10 day EMA (46.08) Wednesday. Going to let it show us the move on strong volume to enter. With the market a bit equivocal, the healthcare sector is more defensive and a good place to look.
Volume: 422.993K Avg Volume: 712.114K
BUY POINT: $47.12 Volume=1.1M Target=$54 Stop=$45.95
POSITION: PSU KI - Nov. $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gpro.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/10/2005
JWN (Nordstrom--$32.34; -0.12; optionable): Higher end retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jwn.html
STATUS: Put. After a long, steady climb since early 2003 JWN faltered early this month with the retail sales figures that disappointed. It gapped below the 50 day EMA (33.89) and has never recovered. It made a lukewarm attempt at the 50 day on the Wednesday high and then rolled over on high volume for a loss. Looking weak with money flow diving lower. Ready to play another move lower here toward some support at 30. That move lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 3.884M Avg Volume: 2.272M
BUY POINT: $32.11 Volume=2.8M Target=$30.05 Stop=$32.77
POSITION: JWN UG - Sept. $35p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jwn.html
Play Date: 08/10/2005
SYMC (Symantec--$21.98; -0.29; optionable): Internet security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/symc.html
After Hours: $22.05
STATUS: Put. SYMC tried to rebuild, rallying up to the 200 day SMA (23.55) in July, but then gapping lower to end the month as it disappointed on the earnings front. It has tried to hold the 50 day EMA (22.23) much as it tried to hold the 200 day, but it has just bumped up against it the past two weeks. Wednesday volume jumped back above average as it started lower from that resistance level. With money flow diving lower ahead of price we are looking to pick up some put positions as SYMC continues lower from here, following the money. A move to the target lands us a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 20.021M Avg Volume: 15.672M
BUY POINT: $21.82 Volume=16M Target=$20.31 Stop=$22.42
POSITION: SYQ UX - Sept. $22.50p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/symc.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 07/30/2005
CVD (Covance--$49; +0.04; optionable): Research services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvd.html
STATUS: Breakout test. CVD continues to move laterally the past two weeks following the breakout from a 14 week double bottom with handle base that formed along the 50 day EMA (47.46). Solid action and volume was higher though still below average Wednesday as CVD probed 50. Holding up very well in the weaker market. Want to see a big volume surge as it makes the move through the buy point.
Volume: 317.3K Avg Volume: 373.664K
BUY POINT: New: 50.05 (orig $49.05) Volume=400K Target=$55.95 Stop=$47.87
POSITION: CVD KJ - Nov. $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvd.html
Play Date: 08/02/2005
DRIV (Digital River--$37.11; +0.76; optionable): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/driv.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Another strong stock that gapped higher in late July on earnings news and has since come back to fill that gap on lower overall volume. It has held at the breakout point at 36 the past three sessions, starting higher Wednesday on rising though still below average volume. It fell back from the high as did the market. Want to see that volume return with a strong surge as DRIV follows the money flow higher.
Volume: 965.172K Avg Volume: 1.06M
BUY POINT: $37.77 Volume=1.6M Target=$44.25 Stop=$35.13
POSITION: DQI LH - Dec. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/driv.html
Play Date: 08/08/2005
IEX (Idex--$43.25; +0.93; optionable): Engineered industrial products. Researching next date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 4-22-04 at $44.80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iex.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Solid move Wednesday, rising on a good jump in above average volume and holding the gain into the close. Still a buy on this move as it continues higher. To recap: Gapped out of a 19 week cup with handle base in late July on a solid earnings report, rallying to 44 on the move. It ahs spent the past week coming back to test the move, tapping the 18 day EMA (42.28) Monday. Solid 6 to 4 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) shows solid buying during the consolidation. Nice test of the breakout to the new high; the low volume showing no selling, just profit taking. Strong money flow is leading higher.
Volume: 314.6K Avg Volume: 250.655K
BUY POINT: New: $43.35 (orig. $42.94) Volume=315K Target=$48.92 Stop=$41.94
POSITION: IEX AH - Jan. $40c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iex.html
Play Date: 08/03/2005
MMSI (Merit Medical Systems--$17.39; +0.16; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mmsi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. MMSI continues working laterally over the 18 day EMA (17.09) the past four weeks, moving in a tight range with a few volume spikes sprinkled here and there. That is a good sign that buying continues in the stock even after this breakout. Good sector to look to if the market gets a bit defensive. Strong money flow is leading higher and we are looking for MMSI to follow it. As with other upside plays at this point we need to see strong volume on the continuation of the breakout move.
Volume: 115.251K Avg Volume: 168.012K
BUY POINT: $17.74 Volume=235K Target=$20.44 Stop=$16.79
POSITION: RMQ AQ - Jan. $17.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mmsi.html
Play Date: 08/08/2005
NXTP (Nextel Partners--$26.35; -0.08; optionable): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nxtp.html
After Hours: $26.33
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A nice tight doji Wednesday on rising though still below average volume, and still in a very good tight handle. Still looks very sweet. To recap: A sweet little 7 week pattern has formed over the 50 day EMA (24.98) after a nice breakout and run from March to late June. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows solid buying as NXTP took a breather. Has formed the handle now.
Volume: 2.439M Avg Volume: 2.259M
BUY POINT: $26.69 Volume=3.4M Target=$30.25 Stop=$25.98
POSITION: KTU AE - Jan. $25c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nxtp.html
Play Date: 07/27/2005
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Prodcut Dev.--$56.02; +0.16; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
After Hours: $56.03
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice doji Wednesday on the 18 day EMA (55.88) on rising though still below average volume. Good sector to look to as the market turns a bit defensive. Money flow is strong still. Strong breakout from a 12 week base and a solid test. As with all upside at this point, need to see some volume on the move to show those buyers that are looking upside are moving into the stock.
Volume: 389.583K Avg Volume: 369.232K
BUY POINT: $57.38 Volume=547K Target=$64.55 Stop=$56.35
POSITION: PJQ AK - Jan. $55c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ppdi.html
Play Date: 07/25/2005
RIG (Transocean--$58.75; +0.8; optionable): Oil and gas exploration and drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rig.html
After Hours: $58.74
STATUS: Breakout test. Did not blast higher with the other oil stocks, but the drillers were lagging a bit. Still a nice doji that tapped the 18 day EMA (57.82) on the low and rebounded. Volume jumped, moving up to near average. Money flow is moving higher ahead of price once more. Looks ready to go next. To recap: Gapped higher last week on solid volume as RIG reported very strong earnings. It waffled after the move, however, as the market overall came under pressure. It tested the 10 day EMA, filling the gap higher; that helps set the continuation of the breakout. The pattern was a base on base, a 9 week double bottom with handle breakout and then a 6 week ascending triangle; this combination can provide a strong rally. It is set to move again, and we are ready to move in on a solid volume advance through the buy point.
Volume: 4.315M Avg Volume: 4.339M
BUY POINT: $59.75 Volume=4.6M Target=$67.44 Stop=$57.47
POSITION: RIG KK - Nov. $55c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rig.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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