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us stock market, trade stock
Beginp art 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: DNA; PWR; QSII; VLO; JWN
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 08/11/2005
THQI (THQ, Inc.--$35.65; +1.10; optionable): Multimedia and graphics software. Splits 3:2 on 9-2-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
After Hours: $35.40
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. After a strong move out of a 16 week base in early July, THQI rallied to 36.50 and then gapped back down. It managed to hold the 18 day EMA (34.35) and moved laterally the past week on lower volume. Thursday THQI bounced higher off of that near support on rising, above average volume. Strong money flow. Looking good for a pre-split run here from this market leader.
Volume: 822.999K Avg Volume: 733.492K
BUY POINT: $35.88 Volume=1M Target=$40.35 Stop=$34.22
POSITION: QHI LE - Dec. $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/thqi.html
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 08/11/2005
GENZ (Genzyme--$71.02; +0.05; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
After Hours: $70.03
STATUS: Breakout test. This one will grow into a pre-announcement play if it continues this strong move. GENZ broke out in mid-July on strong trade and earnings, moving to 76 on the impressive run. GENZ has come back the past two weeks, holding near support at the 18 day EMA (70.51), and important support point for breakouts. Strong stocks will hold this level and continue the move. Nice low volume on the pullback and money flow is holding up strong as GENZ makes this test. A pair of nice dojis a the 18 day EMA have set up the rebound. Looking for that volume to return as it makes the break higher through the buy point.
Volume: 1.428M Avg Volume: 2.888M
BUY POINT: $71.49 Volume=4.3M Target=$90.55 Stop=$69.98
POSITION: GZQ AN - Jan. $70c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/genz.html
Continuing leader play:
Play Date: 08/02/2005
DRIV (Digital River--$37.72; +0.61; optionable): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/driv.html
After Hours: $37.76
STATUS: Breakout test. Exploded higher in late July on strong earnings, gapping off the 18 day EMA (37.01). It has made a full test of the breakout, filling the gap on lower trade. It has started to move off of that test but volume has not been there yet. Still looks ready to rally once more in the continuing breakout. Strong move out of a 8 month cup with handle pattern. Strong money flow is leading higher.
Volume: 899.738K Avg Volume: 1.062M
BUY POINT: $37.77 Volume=1.6M Target=$44.25 Stop=$35.13
POSITION: DQI LH - Dec. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/driv.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all positions but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANSI: Researching to pinpoint the date.
APA: Forecast 9-9-05.
APPX: Forecast 8-12-05
CDIS: No split announcement 8-2-05 with its earnings. Moving up off the 18 day EMA and letting it continue to work for us.
CELL: No split announced 8-9-05. Broke higher Wednesday but could not hold the move, coming back to test already.
CHTT: Forecast 9-19-05 after the close.
DNA: Researching next split date.
EAT: No split announced 8-11-05. Unable to give us the entry.
HOC: Forecast mid-August. Made the break higher.
IEX; Researching to pinpoint date.
LM: Did not announce on 7-21-05 but a strong stock. Researching the next date.
MRVL: Forecast to announce 8-18-05 after the close.
PLCE: Forecast 8-18-05
POOL: Forecast 8-12-05. Will see if it can deliver yet again.
TSCO: Researching the next date.
URBN: Forecast 8-11-05. Never gave us the entry as it continued to languish under the 50 day EMA. Big volume Thursday so will see if it can recover, but not a low risk entry point.
VLO: Researching to pinpoint the date.
WC: No announcement 8-3-05 and researching next date.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
CWTR (Coldwater Creek--$27.72; +1.03; optionable): Catalog and mail order retail. Researching to pinpoint an exact split date. Just split in March so this is quite a wildcard at this point.
BACKGROUND: A frequent splitter of late. Last split 3:2 on 2-14-05 at $26.90. Like these as they build up shares for holding onto a good stock.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cwtr.html
After Hours: $27.51
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. CWTR broke out from a 5 month base in late May and has rallied up the 18 day EMA (26.55), using that level to bounce up for each move. It has comeback the past week to make another test and then started higher Thursday on rising though still below average volume. Strong money flow is leading higher and we are looking to move in on a continued bounce on solid trade.
Volume: 391.363K Avg Volume: 474.586K
BUY POINT: $27.88 Volume=712K Target=$32.38 Stop=$26.42
POSITION: UCJ AE - Jan. $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cwtr.html
Play Date: 08/11/2005
NX (Quanex--$61.87; +1.23; optionable): Steel and iron. Forecast 8-25-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 12-2-04 at $58.90. Pretty recent from the last split announcement, but nice pattern and want to be in on a good breakout.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Excellent 21 week base has formed using the 50 day EMA (56.92) as support. That is the level where the large institutions move in to accumulate shares. They have been doing that as accumulation is 5 to 3 (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume), showing net buyers in the base. Ready to break to a new high and just want to see the volume really pick up as it makes the breakout.
Volume: 149.5K Avg Volume: 282.529K
BUY POINT: $62.74 Volume=424K Target=$72.88 Stop=$60.57
POSITION: NX KL - Nov. $60c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nx.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/09/2005
ANSI (Advanced Neuromo--$50.18; +0.02; optionable): Medical instruments. Researching next date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 6-6-03 at $48.90.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ansi.html
After Hours: $50.2
STATUS: Breakout test. Finally showed some volume Thursday as ANSI showed a doji after a two day bounce off 47.50. May come back to test the move at the 10 day EMA (48.94) before it is ready to really take off, but we want to be ready given this volume shown Thursday. To recap: Exploded higher in late July on a superb earnings report, rallying over 10 points on that move. Great breakout from a 6 month cup with handle base sporting excellent 8 to 3 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). That shows a lot of buying that set up the breakout and the run higher. Very good test back on low volume, holding near the 10 day EMA.
Volume: 834.438K Avg Volume: 419.151K
BUY POINT: New: Test 49, then $49.75 Volume=600K Target=$59.65 Stop=$48.18
POSITION: UAI KJ - Nov. $50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ansi.html
Play Date: 08/06/2005
APPX (American Pharmaceutical--$45.47; -0.11; optionable): Drugs. Forecast to announce a split 8-12-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 8-8-03 at $38.00.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appx.html
After Hours: $45.39
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. APPX is definitely set up to deliver the goods, fading back to the 10 day EMA (45.26) and holding that level. Now just need to see volume kick up as it rebounds. To recap: APPX is moving in a tight lateral range over the 10 day EMA the past 2 weeks as it comes off the bottom of a 17 week cup base. Used the 200 day SMA (43.52) on the low as support, an important level to see buyers step up to support a stock. They did and APPX jumped off the lows and rallied on solid trade. Strong money flow is leading higher, paving the way for price to follow. Set up well; want to see the strong volume come back into play as it breaks higher out of this nice consolidation.
Volume: 281.982K Avg Volume: 542.811K
BUY POINT: $47.26 Volume=903K Target=$54.45 Stop=$44.77
POSITION: AQO AI - Jan. $45c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/appx.html
Play Date: 08/06/2005
POOL (SCP Pool--$36.25; +0.03; optionable): Wholesale swimming pool supplies. Forecast to announce a split 8-12-05.
BACKGROUND: A frequent splitter, announcing six splits in the past 8 years. Last announced a 3:2 split 8-6-04 at $39.90. Prior to that it announced a 3:2 split on 8-8-03 at $37.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pool.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Continues laterally over the 50 day EMA (35.61) on below average volume that has started to swell the past three sessions. Looking for volume as it makes the move. To recap: POOL is working through an 11 week base that has formed moving up the 50 day EMA. It is coming back to test that level, tapping it Friday after it tried and failed a breakout the third week of July when it announced some strong earnings. Was not quite ready for that all-time high yet, but now it has regrouped at the 50 day EMA and looks good, particularly with the stolid 5 to 1 accumulation in the pattern. Money flow could be better; thus we want to see some strong volume as it makes the move through the buy point.
Volume: 206.853K Avg Volume: 266.245K
BUY POINT: $36.48 Volume=402K Target=$41.55 Stop=$35.41
POSITION: QCL AG - Jan. $35c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pool.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/30/2005
DADE (Dade Behring Holdings--$73.31; +0.1; optionable): Diagnostic substances. Splits 2:1 on 8-30-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dade.html
After Hours: $73.31
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice tight hammer doji Thursday on rising though still below average volume. Excellent pullback and ready to rebound. To recap: Strong leader making a test of the late July breakout. Strong breakout from a 9 week reverse head and shoulders base. Money flow is super and has turned back up. Looks ready to give us the pre-split run.
Volume: 430.956K Avg Volume: 433.553K
BUY POINT: $73.55 Volume=500K Target=$79.98 Stop=$71.95
POSITION: JDQ KO - Nov. $75c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dade.html
POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/04/2005
ADSK (Autodesk--$36.69; +0.01; optionable): CAD programs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adsk.html
After Hours: $36.7
STATUS: Double bottom. Moving laterally the past two sessions, showing dojis both days as ADSK continues to form the handle to its double bottom base. Volume has started to kick higher Tuesday and Wednesday, and that indicates it is ready to move. Being patient and letting it show us the breakout. To recap: Split in December 2004, set up a 5 month cup with handle, made the breakout, but then stalled and fell into the current 9 week pattern. Nice base on base pattern; these form one after the other and work to really shake out the sellers. Thursday volume shot higher as ADSK jumped past the 'hump' in the double bottom at 36.55 and then settled back for a modest gain. Positive 3 to 2 accumulation in the pattern (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying.
Volume: 1.747M Avg Volume: 2.603M
BUY POINT: $36.69 Volume=2.7M Target=$42.21 Stop=$35.65
POSITION: ADQ AG - Jan. $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adsk.html
Play Date: 08/04/2005
HRS (Harris Corp.--$36.43; +0.33; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hrs.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally over the 10 day EMA (35.65). Volume has been improving the past week as money flow moves higher. Looks ready to continue the breakout move. To recap: HRS reported some strong results to end July and gapped sharply higher on excellent trade. That move took it out of a 19 week double bottom with handle base. The move took HRS to a new all-time high just over 37. It has come back the past 4 sessions to test the move, holding easily above the 10 day EMA, moving lower on lower volume.
Volume: 534.4K Avg Volume: 861.654K
BUY POINT: New: $36.65 (orig. $35.95) Volume=1M Target=$41.65 Stop=$35.55
POSITION: HRS KG - Nov. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hrs.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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