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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves: AAPL; END; NVDA
Thursday night play results
MPET: Low volume continues as MPET hold the 10 day EMA despite the market selling.
TER: Low volume pullback to the 18 day EMA. Continuing the test but will need the market to rebound to make its move.
UTHR: Rallied a bit but volume fell off the map so sat it out.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/13/2005
ANX (Adventrx Pharmaceuticals--$3.50; -0.17; no options):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Not all solid patterns are household names. ANX was a new issued in August 2004, and rallied well in March and April before peaking and forming a 14 week double bottom with handle base. It broke out on strong volume to start this month, and has spent the past week coming back to test the move. It held at the 10 day EMA (3.39), the closest support level, and bounced on sharply higher, above average volume on Thursday. It faded back to test again on the Friday selling, but remains above the 10 day EMA and ready to continue the breakout move. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) show solid buying that set up the breakout. Strong money flow continues to lead higher, and we are ready to move in as ANX continues the breakout.
Volume: 642.6K Avg Volume: 439.971K
BUY POINT: $3.75 Volume=660K Target=$4.55 Stop=$3.49
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/anx.html
Play Date: 08/13/2005
ARD (Arena Resources--$15.3; -0.19; no options): Oil and gas drilling & exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ard.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A new issue in May 2003, ARD has made steady progress and has just broken out from its second large base since going public. A nice 18 week cup with handle pattern that showed a massive breakout in late July and early August. ARD rallied to just over 16 on the move and has come back on lower volume the past two weeks to test, holding the 10 day EMA (15.20), the closest support after a breakout. That is a sign of strength that the stock will resume its upside breakout move in short order. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying. Money flow is very strong as well. May take another session or two to complete the pullback, but looks ready. Want to see some continued strong trade as it makes the next bounce in the breakout move. These first tests of a breakout our a great entry point as it shows buyers still ready to move in even at a higher level from the breakout.
Volume: 84K Avg Volume: 75K
BUY POINT: $15.66 Volume=112K Target=$18.75 Stop=$14.97
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ard.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/13/2005
ICF (Ishares Cohen & Steers--$72.7; +0.28; optionable): Realty ETF
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/icf.html
STATUS: Put. Real estate is showing some troublesome signs and this index is no exception. After a strong breakout and run higher May to early August, ICF hit the wall and sold hard to start the month. It undercut the 50 day EMA (72.65) on strong volume, and then spent last week rebounding to test that level with volume declining each session. That shows fewer and fewer buyers on the rebound, and now that it has hit the 50 day EMA it will likely see renewed selling. That is where we look to move in as ICF rolls back over and follows the tanking money flow lower. A move to the target lands us a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 223.4K Avg Volume: 328.388K
BUY POINT: $72.42 Volume=335K Target=$70.41 Stop=$73.02
POSITION: ICV UU - Sept. $75p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/icf.html
Play Date: 08/13/2005
TINY (Harris & Harris Group--$11.63; -0.25; optionable): Closed end debt fund
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tiny.html
After Hours: $11.63
STATUS: Put. TINY is in a long downtrend punctuated by rally attempts. The last one was a cup base formed from May to July, but TINY ran out of buyers when it tried the breakout move. it rolled over and sliced through the 200 day SMA (12.72) in early August. It moved laterally the past week, but was unable to gain any upside traction. As it did, the 10 day EMA (12.16) has moved down on its head. Friday TINY broke lower on slightly rising but still below average volume. Looking for it to pick up some speed on the way down. A move to the target give us a 46%ish gain.
Volume: 111.457K Avg Volume: 179.421K
BUY POINT: $11.52 Volume=200K Target=$10.25 Stop=$11.86
POSITION: QJT UV - Sept. $12.50p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tiny.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, CELG, BLUD, BR, COH, HW, PSYS, RTSX, STN
AAPL: Gave us the breakout Friday and we issued an alert. Nice action in a weak market.
COH: Nice bounce off the 50 day EMA and now moving laterally at the 18 day EMA. Retailers are struggling some so we will see if this has the strength to continue higher.
PSYS: Something of a double bottom trying to form over the 50 day EMA. Trying.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
AMT: A leader that broke higher to end July after a strong late June breakout that led into a 3 week lateral consolidation. AMT is moving laterally again, bouncing up and down over the 18 day EMA. When the pattern tightens up in the lateral move it may provide us another breakout to the upside.
Downside:
XWG: After a big breakout and run in late July form a 6 week cup with handle base, XWG peaked at 15 and sold back through the 18 day EMA. It moved laterally below that level all last week. It will either base out some more here and try to move higher once more or it will come back to test the 50 day EMA (9.49). Stock closed at 11.21.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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