|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: DRIV; NVDA
Best Plays:
1) CMX: Nice test from a breakout from an all-time high.
2) EEFT: Ready to breakout to its own new high.
3) FORD: Plenty of strength and ready to resume the breakout from a top-rated stock.
4) IYR: Ready to tumble lower.
5) SSNC: Money flow is tanking and it looks ready to follow.
6) ASPM: Ready to rebound after the test.
7) MINI: Nice test and looks ready to resume the move.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/13/2005
CMX (Caremark RX--$46.43; -0.41; optionable): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. CMX blasted out of a nice little 8 week double bottom with handle base to start August. This base followed directly on the heels of a 15 week trading range in May; a good base on base pattern that really works to weed out the sellers. Strong volume breakout and then a lateral move the past week to tap and test the 10 day EMA (46.05) on the Friday low as volume turned low and below average Thursday and Friday. Nice test and looking for a strong break higher once more as CMX moves to another new all-time high.
Volume: 1.23M Avg Volume: 2.351M
BUY POINT: $47.25 Volume=2.6M Target=$53.15 Stop=$45.97
POSITION: CMX LI - Dec. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmx.html
Play Date: 08/13/2005
EEFT (Euronet Worldwide--$30; +0.04; optionable): Secure electronic financial transactions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eeft.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A very nice 12 week base has formed using the 200 day SMA (26.50) as support for both legs of the double bottom base. EEFT is a leader in this market, setting up for a new all-time high on a breakout from the pattern. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) shows plenty of buying and has set up the foundation for the breakout and breakout run. Money flow is strong as well, leading higher ahead of price. Volume has kicked up the past week, positing a higher close Friday as EEFT edged toward the breakout in a down market. All we need to see it the breakout move on even better volume.
Volume: 331.755K Avg Volume: 343.586K
BUY POINT: $30.41 Volume=515K Target=$34.95 Stop=$28.97
POSITION: HSQ AF - Jan. $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/eeft.html
Play Date: 08/13/2005
FORD (Forward Industries--$26.12; -0.31; no options): Carrying cases, bags, clips, etc. for hand held consumer electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ford.html
After Hours: $26.19
STATUS: Breakout test. FORD exploded on the scene, at least in terms of breakouts, in January and has trended higher up the 50 day EMA (22.10) since. Its latest base was a 7 week job, using the 50 day EMA as support and then blasting higher in late July on superb earnings. It rallied over 28 on that move and has come back the past two weeks to test, holding the 18 day EMA (25.00) on the early week lows and then starting to rebound toward the end of the week. Strong 4 to 1 accumulation in the base shows continued strong buying and set up this breakout. Strong volume is leading higher as well. We are looking to move in on a resumption of the breakout run.
Volume: 458.603K Avg Volume: 1.27M
BUY POINT: $26.96 Volume=1.4M Target=$32.55 Stop=$25.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ford.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/13/2005
ISSC (Innovative Solutions--$17.75; -0.41; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/issc.html
After Hours: $17.76
STATUS: Put. ISSC double topped in May and June, tried to consolidate at the 50 day EMA, but then imploded in mid-July on its earnings results. That move cut the 200 day SMA (20.81) with such violence that ISSC did not even attempt to test that level when it rebounded to try and catch its breath. Instead it hit the 10 day EMA (18.41) and has slid lower below that level. Friday it started to break harder to the downside, and we are looking to move in on a further decline and ride it on the next leg lower. A move to the target gives us a 54%ish gain.
Volume: 175.048K Avg Volume: 368.765K
BUY POINT: $17.74 Volume=400K Target=$16.22 Stop=$10.86
POSITION: BJU UW - Sept. $17.50p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/issc.html
Play Date: 08/13/2005
IYR (Dow Jones Real Estate Index--$64.04; -0.11; optionable): Closed end real estate ETF
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iyr.html
STATUS: Put. Real estate is starting to show signs of wear and tear, breaking down in the past week after strong runs. The IYR ETF broke out from a 20 week base in June and rallied to 69 to start the month. It then collapsed, plunging through the 50 day EMA (64.52). After a further plunge Monday on massive volume, IYR managed a very low volume rebound the rest of the week, tapping at the 50 day EMA on the Friday intraday high. It closed the session showing a hanging man doji. After a rebound that often signals the end of the line, particularly when it occurs below this kind of resistance after a nasty plunge. This is call the kiss goodbye. Looking for IYR to roll over once more and give us the second downside run in this sell off. Money flow has flushed down the toilet and we are looking for IYR to follow it further. A move to the target lands us a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 2.041M Avg Volume: 1.952M
BUY POINT: $63.91 Volume=2.5M Target=$62 Stop=$64.55
POSITION: IYD UL - Sept. $65p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/iyr.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 08/11/2005
AMGN (Amgen--$80.42; -0.42; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amgn.html
After Hours: $80.39
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Showing a doji over the 18 day EMA (79.16) on low volume. Nice test and holding up well given the selling market. Holding up like this in a weak market indicates it is going to rebound for us when the market firms. To recap: AMGN exploded higher in mid-July with a superb earnings report, gapping higher after already clearing a 7 month flat base. It has moved laterally the past 4 weeks and then received some downgrades last week and earlier this week. That sent AMGN back to the 18 day EMA where it has held its ground and is starting to rebound, giving us an opportunity. A strong stock will get these valuation downgrades, test near support, then rebound. Looking for more volume as it continues higher.
Volume: 5.231M Avg Volume: 9.675M
BUY POINT: $81.65 Volume=11M Target=$92.88 Stop=$78.78
POSITION: VAM AQ - Jan. $85c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amgn.html
Play Date: 08/01/2005
ASPM (Aspect Medical--$32.42; -0.02; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aspm.html
After Hours: $32.33
STATUS: Breakout test. Still a very nice, low volume test of the late July breakout, holding over the 18 day EMA (31.97) last week as the market sold. That is a sign of strength we love to see. This move follow the breakout from a 7 week base formed just over the 50 day EMA (30.49). Just a solid base, nice breakout, and a super test. Looking for a strong volume move higher this week.
Volume: 97.462K Avg Volume: 176.054K
BUY POINT: $32.78 Volume=276K Target=$38.65 Stop=$31.48
POSITION: UCU KF - Nov. $30c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aspm.html
Play Date: 08/09/2005
BTUI (BTU International--$7.21; +0.33; no options): Semiconductor equipment (thermal processing systems for the electronics industry)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/btui.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Started higher Friday as the rest of the market sold, though volume went the other way for the lowest trade in three weeks. All we need to see is more volume and it is a buy. To recap: BTUI just came back to test the breakout from a 17 month cup with handle base after exploding higher in late July with a big upside gap. It rallied to 8 on the high and then made the test this month, holding the 18 day EMA (6.45) on the test, tapping the 18 day on the low and rebounding on strong volume. Strong breakout and a strong rebound off the test. Strong money flow is leading higher and BTUI is following it higher.
Volume: 56.254K Avg Volume: 121K
BUY POINT: New: $7.28 (orig. $7.18) Volume=165K Target=$8.79 Stop=$6.82
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/btui.html
Play Date: 07/30/2005
CVD (Covance--$49.54; -0.64; optionable): Research services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvd.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Solid move Thursday but not a lot of volume. Tested back to the 10 day EMA (49.18) Friday on continued low trade, bouncing off that level and cutting its losses by the close. A low volume test in a selling market, not bad action at all. Just looking for the volume to kick in a bit better this week and CVD is a buy. To recap: CVD continues to move laterally the past two weeks following the breakout from a 14 week double bottom with handle base that formed along the 50 day EMA (47.64). Holding up very well in the weaker market. Want to see a big volume surge as it makes the move through the buy point.
Volume: 280.8K Avg Volume: 373.155K
BUY POINT: $50.25 Volume=400K Target=$56.95 Stop=$48.68
POSITION: CVD KJ - Nov. $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvd.html
Play Date: 08/10/2005
GPRO (Gen Probe--$46.81; -0.15; optionable): Medical equipment (probe-based products for diagnosis of diseases.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpro.html
After Hours: $46.9
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another nice doji at the 10 day EMA (46.34) Friday on very low, below average volume as GPRO continues to form the handle in preparation for the break higher. Just being patient and letting it set up and then show us the breakout move. To recap: After disappointing earnings in early May gapped GPRO lower and started the current 14 week base. It gapped higher to start the month as it reported better than expected earnings; ah the earnings game. Positive 3 to 2 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers and that is all it takes to support a breakout move. It has come back to fill most of that early August gap higher, showing a doji on the 10 day EMA the past three sessions. Going to let it show us the move on strong volume to enter. With the market a bit equivocal, the healthcare sector is more defensive and a good place to look.
Volume: 205.001K Avg Volume: 699.205K
BUY POINT: $47.12 Volume=1.1M Target=$54 Stop=$45.95
POSITION: PSU KI - Nov. $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gpro.html
Play Date: 08/10/2005
MINI (Mobile Mini--$40.98; -0.65; optionable): Portable storage containers, mobile offices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mini.html
STATUS: Breakout test. After a strong surge Wednesday on heavy volume and a continued run Thursday on lighter trade, MINI fell back Friday on much lower, below average volume. Tapped the 10 day EMA (40.58) on the low and rebounded to cut some of its losses just like CVD. Nice test to let off some of the steam from the Wednesday and Thursday run. Looking for MINI to continue the move after this test. To recap: MINI makes small metal buildings. With the construction boom its business has been sweet. It broke out from a 16 week cup with handle base to end July, surging to 44. It has come back to test the move, holding the 18 day EMA and bouncing last Wednesday on another surge in very strong trade. Nice base that used the 50 day EMA (38.65) as support. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation in the pattern (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying remains. Strong money flow is leading higher as well, another good indication of solid buying. Looking to move in as MINI continues the run after this test.
Volume: 43.296K Avg Volume: 100K
BUY POINT: New: $41.15 (orig. $40.95) Volume=200K Target=$46.95 Stop=$39.69
POSITION: UAC KH - Nov. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mini.html
Play Date: 08/08/2005
NXTP (Nextel Partners--$26.02; -0.26; optionable): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nxtp.html
After Hours: $25.99
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. NXTP continues to form the handle to its sweet little base, easing back Friday to tap close a the 10 day EMA (26.00) on the close. This looks to be the point where the last sellers are shaken out in the handle, and once they are going we should see a strong upside breakout. To recap: A nice 7 week pattern has formed over the 50 day EMA (25.07) after a nice breakout and run from March to late June. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows solid buying as NXTP took a breather. Looks ready to make the move.
Volume: 1.166M Avg Volume: 2.273M
BUY POINT: $26.69 Volume=3.4M Target=$30.25 Stop=$25.98
POSITION: KTU AE - Jan. $25c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nxtp.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
