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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: JWN
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 08/16/2005
CELL (Brightpoint--$25.04; +0.44; optionable): Telecom electronics. Splits 3:2 on 9-16-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cell.html
After Hours: $25.04
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume has jumped the past week as CELL announced its split but ahs been unable to make the bit break higher over 25. Nice 15 week cup with handle base has set up the move higher. Positive accumulation in the pattern has set up the breakout move. Looking for the breakout on continued strong volume.
Volume: 376.348K Avg Volume: 245.488K
BUY POINT: $25.25 Volume=368K Target=$28.45 Stop=$24.12
POSITION: ULN AE - Jan. $25c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cell.html
New Downside Play:
Play Date: 08/16/2005
JOSB (Joseph A. Banks--$39.95; -1.59; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/josb.html
After Hours: $39.86
STATUS: Put. Nice breakout and run March through July, but it peaked on no volume (low, below average volume). It rolled over and sliced through the 50 day EMA (41.93) two weeks back on a strong volume surge. It fell to some support at 40 and rebounded to test the breakdown. Volume remained pathetically low, however, and Tuesday JOSB plowed lower on the strongest volume since it broke through the 50 day EMA. Looking to move in on a further drop. A move to the target lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 435.622K Avg Volume: 298.958K
BUY POINT: $39.85 Volume=300K Target=$37.83 Stop=$40.55
POSITION: QAS UH - Sept. $40p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/josb.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANSI: Researching to pinpoint the date.
APA: Forecast 9-9-05.
CDIS: No split announcement 8-2-05 with its earnings. Could not hold the 18 day EMA.
CETV: Tentatively forecast in mid-October.
CHTT: Forecast 9-19-05 after the close. In real trouble. Will have to set back up.
CWTR: Researching to pinpoint the date. Split in March so this is a bit of a wildcard.
DE: It can run like a deer, up and down. Tumbled on the earnings, obviously not giving us the breakout we were looking for.
DNA: Researching next split date.
HOC: Forecast mid-August. Have been unable to pinpoint the board meeting date. Nice test of the 10 day EMA could give us a buy opportunity.
IEX: Researching to pinpoint date.
LM: Did not announce on 7-21-05 but a strong stock. Researching the next date.
LOW: Great earnings but no split announcement. Letting it make the test here at the 18 day EMA and will see if it can hold and give us a strong break higher.
MRVL: Forecast to announce 8-18-05 after the close.
NX: Forecast 8-25-05. Falling through the 18 day EMA on low volume. Needs to check up soon.
PLCE: Forecast 8-18-05
TECH: No split announcement but ripped higher on the strong earnings.
TSCO: Researching the next date. Dumped lower to the 50 day EMA.
VLO: Researching to pinpoint the date. Going to let it make the test and will look at it again after that is over.
WC: No announcement 8-3-05 and researching next date.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/16/2005
GYI (Getty Images--$81.12; -0.5; optionable): Imagery and related services to businesses. Researching the next potential announcement date.
BACKGROUND: No splits in Getty's history, but at a favored split level after the 2000 crash.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gyi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. GYI exploded out of a 14 week trading range in late July, rallying to 84 on that move. It has spent the past three weeks moving laterally over the 10 day EMA (80.94) on lower, below average volume, setting up the continued move. Strong volume Tuesday as GYI sold back but held the 10 day EMA with a modest loss. Strong money flow is leading higher and accumulation is outstanding at 8 to 2 (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). Just waiting for the break higher from this range on continued strong volume to enter.
Volume: 1.224M Avg Volume: 494.589K
BUY POINT: $82.25 Volume=742K Target=$92.55 Stop=$80.69
POSITION: GYI AQ - Jan $85c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gyi.html
Play Date: 08/16/2005
KMG (Kerr-McGee--$84.63; -0.5; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Researching the potential date.
BACKGROUND: No splits in KMG's history but many oil and gas stocks are announcing at this level.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmg.html
STATUS: Breakout test. KMG gapped higher on 8-8 on the proposed sale of some North Sea assets. The move took KMG out of a 21 week cup with handle base formed right at a new all-time high and over the important 50 day EMA (79.67) support level. Nice test on lower volume has taken KMG back to the 10 day EMA (84.20). Volume jumped and KMG ran to 87.60 on Tuesday on an AG Edwards upgrade. Strong stock and a nice pullback to test the move higher. Just going to be patient and let it move higher once more on strong volume.
Volume: 2.349M Avg Volume: 2.702M
BUY POINT: $86.48 Volume=3.3M Target=$97.25 Stop=$84.15
POSITION: KMG AR - Jan. $90c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kmg.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/09/2005
ANSI (Advanced Neuromo--$50.11; +1.21; optionable): Medical instruments. Researching next date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 6-6-03 at $48.90.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ansi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume moved up to average as ANSI moved off the 10 day EMA (49.19) as it continues the test of the big breakout to end July. Nice action in a weak market, showing it is ready to move higher. To recap: ANSI exploded higher in late July on a superb earnings report, rallying over 10 points on that move. Great breakout from a 6 month cup with handle base sporting excellent 8 to 3 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). That shows a lot of buying that set up the breakout and the run higher. Very good test back on low volume, holding near the 10 day EMA.
Volume: 444.359K Avg Volume: 437.856K
BUY POINT: $49.75 Volume=600K Target=$59.65 Stop=$48.18
POSITION: UAI KJ - Nov. $50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ansi.html
Play Date: 08/13/2005
CETV (Central European Media--$50.51; +0.13; optionable): Central and eastern European television stations. Forecast to announce a split in mid-October
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 10-14-03 at $28.07. It has two earlier splits under its belt at a similar price.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cetv.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another low volume test of the 10 day EMA (50.07) as CETV continues to form the handle and set up the breakout move. To recap: We may be a bit early with a split forecast way out in October, but this pattern is one we were not going to let go without a comment and a position if it makes the break higher. A nice 22 week pattern that formed mostly using the 50 day EMA (48.22) as support. Accumulation is an outstanding 7 to 3 (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume), showing plenty of buying as CETV moved along the 50 day in this lateral consolidation. Excellent money flow is leading higher as well. Volume has kicked up on a few occasions the past two weeks as CETV formed the handle, and it was up above average Friday as well. That is telling us to get ready for the breakout to come.
Volume: 95.17K Avg Volume: 144.339K
BUY POINT: $51.28 Volume=250K Target=$58.95 Stop=$49.76
POSITION: EVU AJ - Jan. $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cetv.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/04/2005
GPN (Global Payments--$66.69; -0.43; optionable): Electronic payment systems. Splits 2:1 on 10-31-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpn.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. GPN was ready to move last week but ran out of steam and fell to the 50 day EMA (66.55). Not bad action with the low volume; It is actually forming a handle to its 11 week pattern. Strong money flow continues to lead higher, and after this shakeout GPN will be set to follow it higher.
Volume: 144.4K Avg Volume: 294.002K
BUY POINT: $67.89 Volume=456K Target=$76.42 Stop=$66.21
POSITION: GPN KM - Dec. $65c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gpn.html
Play Date: 08/11/2005
THQI (THQ, Inc.--$35.45; -0.29; optionable): Multimedia and graphics software. Splits 3:2 on 9-2-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Low volume as THQI works laterally over the 10 day EMA (35.14) after the solid break higher Thursday off the 18 day EMA (34.67). Setting up well during the market selling, showing great relative strength. Looks ready. To recap: After a strong move out of a 16 week base in early July, THQI rallied to 36.50 and then gapped back down. It managed to hold the 18 day EMA and moved laterally the past week on lower volume. Thursday THQI bounced higher off of that near support on rising, above average volume and has held the 10 day EMA since. Strong money flow is leading. Relative strength is on the verge of a breakout. Looking good for a pre-split run here from this market leader.
Volume: 382.897K Avg Volume: 741.248K
BUY POINT: $35.88 Volume=1M Target=$40.35 Stop=$34.22
POSITION: QHI LE - Dec. $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/thqi.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/13/2005
ATVI (Activision--$20; -0.29; optionable): Multimedia and graphics software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atvi.html
After Hours: $19.99
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped up Monday on continued low volume, and in the market selling Tuesday, it sold back to the 10 day EMA (20.01). Getting a bit volatile here, but hanging in above the 10 day and the 18 day EMA (19.69). Set up well to make the move so we are going to be patient with it. To recap: Thursday and Friday ATVI tapped at and tested the 18 day EMA on the lows, closing at that key near term support Friday. Volume rose Thursday and was still higher Friday than on the prior selling sessions; that shows us some interest in the stock as it tests and holds this near support. The 18 day EMA should be the support for a strong stock making a test of its breakout. That is what ATVI is doing, testing the late July breakout from its 6 month cup with handle base. The breakout took the stock to a new all-time high, and this tests appears to be setting it up for the resumption of that move. Looking for that volume to continue to build as ATVI moves up and off the 18 day EMA and through the 10 day EMA to give us the entry point.
Volume: 1.002M Avg Volume: 2.371M
BUY POINT: $20.05 Volume=2.8M Target=$23.45 Stop=$19.42
POSITION: AQV AD - Jan. $20c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atvi.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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