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us stock market, stock ticker
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves: AAPL; HXL; ODP; JOSB; TINY
Tuesday night play results
ALXN: Low volume test of the 18 day EMA as it continues to set up.
ARRS: Low volume as it tested and held the 10 day EMA.
JOSB: Tumbled lower.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/17/2005
AMT (American Tower--$22.71; +0.03; optionable): Telecom towers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Broke out in late June from a 15 week cup with handle and has rallied well. This is AMT's second deeper test of the break higher, and instead of a pullback to the 50 day EMA down at 21.20 it has formed a lateral range over the 18 day EMA (22.41) and below 23. Excellent strength by this leader in a selling market, holding its gains while the market does not. It is set up well to continue the break higher, making a higher low just over the 10 day EMA (22.61), showing a tight doji Wednesday at that level.
Volume: 1.18M Avg Volume: 3.4M
BUY POINT: $23.38 Volume=5.1M Target=$26.88 Stop=$22.31
POSITION: AMT AX - Jan. $22.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/amt.html
Play Date: 08/17/2005
CTL (Centurytel--$35.55; +0.11; optionable): Local, long distance, internet access, DSL
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. CTL broke out from a 7 month reverse head and shoulders base in early August, rallying to 36.50 on the high. CTL has come back the last week, tapping and holding the 18 day EMA (35.32) on low volume. That volume kicked a bit higher Wednesday as CTL moved off that near support. Strong 7 to 4 accumulation in the base (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buyers in the pattern, setting up the breakout and run higher. Strong money flow. Ready to move to a 4 year high as it continues the breakout run.
Volume: 884.7K Avg Volume: 1.135M
BUY POINT: $35.72 Volume=1.2M Target=$41.35 Stop=$35.17
POSITION: CTL AG - Jan. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ctl.html
Play Date: 08/17/2005
KNOT (The Knot--$9.31; +0.10; no options): Online and offline wedding services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/knot.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Seems almost incredible but a very nice 4.5 month base has formed over the 50 day EMA (7.53) that broke out last week and has moved laterally this week, tapping at the 10 day EMA (8.70) on the Tuesday low. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation shows solid buying and money flow is surging higher ahead of price. Tried to continue the break higher Wednesday but gave back most of the gain by the close. We have learned not to doubt the pattern and its positive attributes over the years, having seen many we said could not or should not make the move do just that. This is one of those.
Volume: 195.713K Avg Volume: 100K
BUY POINT: $9.55 Volume=175K Target=$11.55 Stop=$8.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/knot.html
New Buy Point on Current Play:
Play Date: 08/17/2005
RBAK (Redback Networks--$9.22; -0.05; optionable): Telecom networking equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rbak.html
After Hours: $9.22
STATUS: Breakout test. RBAK broke out from a 5.5 month cup with handle base to end July, and rallied up to 9.80. It peaked and has come back to test the 10 day EMA (9.15) the past week, doing so on very nice, below average volume. Wednesday, however, volume jumped back up to average as RBAK showed a hammer doji at the 10 day. Strong money flow is leading higher even as RBAK makes this test. Looking for continued strong volume as RBAK breaks higher and continues its breakout run.
Volume: 876.564K Avg Volume: 693.071K
BUY POINT: $9.66 Volume=1M Target=$11.25 Stop=$9.05
POSITION: RBU LU - Dec. $7.50c (75 delta) or RBU LB - Dec. $10c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rbak.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, CELG, BLUD, BR, COH, HW, PSYS, RTSX, STN
BR: Fell through the 18 day EMA on strong volume as energy stocks suffered. No doubt it will be back, but if it makes a test of the 50 day EMA at 60.72 that is a pretty sizable drop from here. That is why we locked in our gain.
HW: Did not hold 40 and indeed gapped below that level on strong volume. Held the 50 day EMA. That is about all you can say about the action.
RTSX: Very tight flat range the past week as RTSX tries to set up for another run higher with the semiconductors.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Downside:
USTR: Broke out in early July and then tried to consolidate into early August with a flat move. It then imploded, gapping below the 50 day EMA and then breaking below the 200 day SMA (46.60) last week. It has bounced back up to test the 200 day, tapping at it on the intraday high the past two sessions, showing a doji Wednesday. This looks like the kiss goodbye before USTR heads back down.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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