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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ADSK; AMED; CCK; CUTR; DNA; GYI; JAKK; TBL
Thursday night play results:
JAH: Gapped higher but was all over the map on the session. Settled down in the close and looks ready to continue the move off the 50 day EMA.
MOBE: Another nice doji at the 18 day EMA.
VIVO: Faded back to the 18 day EMA on low, below average volume.
ANX: Nice doji over the 10 day EMA.
AMT: Modest gain on low volume. Looks good.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/20/2005
CMVT (Comverse Technology--$25.69; -0.13; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmvt.html
STATUS: Test breakout. CMVT broke out in early August on a strong volume shot, moving out of a 15 week ascending triangle sporting excellent 6 to 2 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). As the market sold back the past two weeks CMVT has held the 18 day EMA (25.64) on nice low, below average volume. Friday volume bounced back close to average as CMVT showed a tight doji. Excellent action as it sets up for the next break higher to a 3.5 year high.
Volume: 1.615M Avg Volume: 1.807M
BUY POINT: $26.32 Volume=2.1M Target=$29.95 Stop=$25.55
POSITION: CQV AE - Jan. $25c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cmvt.html
Play Date: 08/20/2005
KERX (Keryx Biopharmaceuticals--$16.54; +0.22; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kerx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. KERX is moving laterally, holding the 18 day EMA (16.24) the past 6 weeks as it tests the mid-July break higher from a 6.5 month base. That base is part of a larger 16 month cup with handle, and this lateral move is the handle to that base. Solid 9 to 4 accumulation in this year's pattern showing plenty of buying. Money flow is surging higher, confirming the accumulation we see. Very nice set up and looking for volume to return (it has been very low and well below average the past three weeks) as KERX moves through the buy point.
Volume: 104.508K Avg Volume: 452.357K
BUY POINT: $16.95 Volume=679K Target=$19.97 Stop=$16.11
POSITION: QKY LC - Dec. $15c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/kerx.html
Play Date: 08/20/2005
SYNM (Syntroleum--$12.26; +1.04; optionable): Synthetic oil (converting natural gas to liquid hydrocarbons)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/synm.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. SYNM jumped on above average volume Friday as it started toward the breakout from its 5 month base. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the base shows net buying, and money flow is rising ahead of price, confirming that accumulation. Looking for a continued move higher to star the play.
Volume: 507.468K Avg Volume: 420.358K
BUY POINT: $12.42 Volume=631K Target=$14.95 Stop=$11.55
POSITION: HYU AV - Jan. $12.50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/synm.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/20/2005
CC (Circuit City--$17.19; -0.14; optionable): Electronics stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cc.html
STATUS: Put. CC enjoyed a decent run from May to August, but as it made a new high volume remained below average; fewer buyers having to carry the load, and that often means a reversal. The stock fell to the 50 day EMA (17.47) early in the month, held that support for a week, then broke down through that level last week. A modest, low volume rebound tested the 50 day on the Friday open, but by the close it had turned back down on stronger volume. Looking for CC to continue lower after this failed test of the 50 day EMA, a.k.a. the kiss goodbye. A move to the target gives us a 49%ish gain.
Volume: 1.218M Avg Volume: 1.599M
BUY POINT: $17.08 Volume=1.6M Target=$16.15 Stop=$17.55
POSITION: CC VW - Oct. $17.50p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cc.html
Play Date: 08/20/2005
HRB (H&R Block--$55.12; -0.68; optionable): Income tax services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hrb.html
STATUS: Put. Tax time is over and HRB is struggling. It gapped sharply higher in June on good earnings and rallied near 60. It formed a weak head and shoulders from mid-June to early August, however, and broke through the 50 day EMA (56.31) the first week of the month. An attempt to recover that level failed, Friday HRB was heading lower once more on a sharp spike in volume. It looks as if it is going to try and fill at least a part of that gap, and we want to make some strong green on that flop. Thus looking for a further drop on some decent volume in order to move into positions. A move to the target lands us a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 1.905M Avg Volume: 1.102M
BUY POINT: $54.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$52.85 Stop=$56.11
POSITION: HRB VK - Oct. $55p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hrb.html
Continuing plays ready to move:
ANX; ANSI; CVD; FLSH; MOBE
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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