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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ADSK; AMED; CELL; DNA; GYI; JOYG
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 08/20/2005
ASVI (A.S.V., Inc.--$46.36; +0.26; optionable): Farm and construction machinery. Splits 2:1 on 8-25-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asvi.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A very nice handle has formed the past 5 weeks, holding over the 50 day EMA (44.53) on the lows as it tests lower and rebounds, shaking out the last sellers. Excellent 8 to 4 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) in the pattern shows plenty of buying. Rallied up to the 18 day EMA (46.56) Friday on stronger, above average volume. Need to see continuing strong trade as it moves through the buy point. With the split coming mid-week it looks as if that will act as the catalyst to send ASVI to the breakout. Strong leader looking for a new all-time high.
Volume: 135.017K Avg Volume: 111.62K
BUY POINT: $46.72 Volume=167K Target=$52.55 Stop=$44.78
POSITION: HUA KI - Nov. $45c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/asvi.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 08/20/2005
ANSS (Ansys--$37.92; +0.28; optionable): Technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ANSS is moving laterally over the 18 day EMA (37.52) on low volume, testing the early August break higher out of a 22 week cup with handle base. Strong 8 to 2 accumulation in the base set up the breakout and has laid the foundation for a continuing run here. Strong money flow is leading higher as well. Just waiting for the strong break higher with some above average volume. Very nice pattern and ready for that new all-time higher. Another strong market leader looking for its next run.
Volume: 124.115K Avg Volume: 160.514K
BUY POINT: $38.73 Volume=241K Target=$43.88 Stop=$37.38
POSITION: QUS AG - Jan. $35c (64 delta) or QUS AH - Jan. $40c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 08/20/2005
CMVT (Comverse Technology--$25.69; -0.13; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmvt.html
STATUS: Test breakout. CMVT broke out in early August on a strong volume shot, moving out of a 15 week ascending triangle sporting excellent 6 to 2 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). As the market sold back the past two weeks CMVT has held the 18 day EMA (25.64) on nice low, below average volume. Friday volume bounced back close to average as CMVT showed a tight doji. Excellent action as it sets up for the next break higher to a 3.5 year high.
Volume: 1.615M Avg Volume: 1.807M
BUY POINT: $26.32 Volume=2.1M Target=$29.95 Stop=$25.55
POSITION: CQV AE - Jan. $25c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmvt.html
New Downside Play:
Play Date: 08/20/2005
HRB (H&R Block--$55.12; -0.68; optionable): Income tax services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hrb.html
STATUS: Put. Tax time is over and HRB is struggling. It gapped sharply higher in June on good earnings and rallied near 60. It formed a weak head and shoulders from mid-June to early August, however, and broke through the 50 day EMA (56.31) the first week of the month. An attempt to recover that level failed, Friday HRB was heading lower once more on a sharp spike in volume. It looks as if it is going to try and fill at least a part of that gap, and we want to make some strong green on that flop. Thus looking for a further drop on some decent volume in order to move into positions. A move to the target lands us a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 1.905M Avg Volume: 1.102M
BUY POINT: $54.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$52.85 Stop=$56.11
POSITION: HRB VK - Oct. $55p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hrb.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
ANSI: Researching to pinpoint the date.
APA: Forecast 9-9-05. Trying to hold the 50 day EMA with a doji Thursday and modest, low volume bounce Friday. Needs a strong move over 70.
CETV: Tentatively forecast in mid-October.
CHTT: Forecast 9-19-05 after the close. Still unable to recover the 50 day EMA, pausing at the 10 day EMA. Not looking too solid just now; needs some time to rebound.
CWTR: Researching to pinpoint the date. Split in March so this is a bit of a wildcard.
DNA: Researching next split date.
GYI: Still moving higher.
IEX: Researching to pinpoint date.
KMG: No announcement in July with earnings; researching to pinpoint the date.
LLL: Tentatively forecast for late October.
LM: Did not announce on 7-21-05 but a strong stock. Researching the next date.
MRVL: No announcement last week but still looks good for a continued move.
NX: Forecast 8-25-05. Continues testing the 50 day EMA. May give us an opportunity off this level.
TECH: No split announcement but enjoying a nice move higher.
WC: No announcement 8-3-05 and researching next date.
WWY: Tentatively set for mid-December but like the pattern here.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/20/2005
USNA (Usana Health Science--$49.65; +1.15; optionable): Drug products. Forecast to announce a split mid-October.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 10-14-03 at $54.70.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/usna.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. USNA is looking for a new all-time high. It broke out of a 17 week base in early August but then faded back to test with the market, fading to just over the 50 day EMA (46.57) on low, below average volume. It has recovered and has held the 18 day EMA (48.14) the past week, setting up the next move. Moved up off of the 18 day EMA on some rising though still below average volume. Looking for the next break higher on strong volume to enter the play.
Volume: 208.599K Avg Volume: 214.754K
BUY POINT: $49.88 Volume=300K Target=$56.94 Stop=$48.05
POSITION: UNX AJ - Jan. $50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/usna.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/09/2005
ANSI (Advanced Neuromo--$51.02; +0.9; optionable): Medical instruments. Researching next date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 6-6-03 at $48.90.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ansi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working back higher after the test of the big July breakout. Volume edged higher Friday but was still below average. Ready to move in but need to see better volume. To recap: ANSI exploded higher in late July on a superb earnings report, rallying over 10 points on that move. Great breakout from a 6 month cup with handle base sporting excellent 8 to 3 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume). That shows a lot of buying that set up the breakout and the run higher. Very good test back on low volume, and now needs to show us the upside volume breakout.
Volume: 313.115K Avg Volume: 437.626K
BUY POINT: New: $51.25 (orig. $49.75) Volume=600K Target=$59.95 Stop=$48.18
POSITION: UAI KJ - Nov. $50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ansi.html
Play Date: 08/16/2005
KMG (Kerr-McGee--$85.99; +2.74; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Researching the potential date.
BACKGROUND: No splits in KMG's history but many oil and gas stocks are announcing at this level.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmg.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Held up better than most in last week's oil selling, falling to the 18 day EMA (84.29) where it showed a doji Thursday and bounced Friday with a strong price move. Wanted to see more volume with that move, and ready to move in as it continues higher if it shows that trade. To recap: KMG gapped higher on 8-8 on the proposed sale of some North Sea assets. The move took KMG out of a 21 week cup with handle base formed right at a new all-time high and over the important 50 day EMA (80.19) support level. Nice test on lower volume has taken KMG back to the 18 day EMA Strong stock and a nice pullback to test the move higher.
Volume: 1.816M Avg Volume: 2.246M
BUY POINT: $86.48 Volume=3.3M Target=$97.25 Stop=$84.15
POSITION: KMG AR - Jan. $90c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kmg.html
Play Date: 08/18/2005
WWY (William Wrigley Jr.--$72.08; +0.08; optionable): Confections. No split announced w/July earnings. Likes to announce near year end but this pattern is too good to wait.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 in March 2001 at $88.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wwy.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Posted an ever so modest move Friday on much lower volume,, teasing the buy point but coming up short. Very nice lateral consolidation and ready for the breakout move. To recap: WWY has formed a nice three week flying plateau above the 18 day EMA (71.34), consolidating the late July breakout (on earnings) from a 24 week double bottom with handle of sorts. Solid 8 to 6 accumulation in the base (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 6 down price weeks on rising volume) has set up the breakout and run. Jumped last Thursday on rising, above average volume as WWY headed toward the top of the recent range. Good money flow leading as well. Looking for the breakout on volume to give us the entry point.
Volume: 309.3K Avg Volume: 536.305K
BUY POINT: $72.38 Volume=808K Target=$81.44 Stop=$70.95
POSITION: WWY LN - Dec. $70c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wwy.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/30/2005
DADE (Dade Behring Holdings--$72.75; -0.27; optionable): Diagnostic substances. Splits 2:1 on 8-30-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dade.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Tried the break higher Friday, moving to 74.34 on the high on some rising, slightly above average volume. Could not hold the move, fading back to the 18 day EMA (72.75). Still holding the breakout and still ready to move higher in to the split. To recap: After exploding higher in late July on great earnings. DADE has used the market pullback to come back itself, testing back to the 18 day EMA on low, below average volume. Lateral move for the past 2 weeks at this near support for breakout moves. Looking for a bump in volume as it continues higher to give us an entry point.
Volume: 539.836K Avg Volume: 435.748K
BUY POINT: $73.66 Volume=500K Target=$79.98 Stop=$72.22
POSITION: JDQ KO - Nov. $75c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dade.html
Play Date: 08/18/2005
VIVO (Meridian Biosciences--$24.72; -0.41; optionable): Diagnostic substances. Splits 3:2 on 9-6-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vivo.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Low volume test back toward the 18 day EMA (24.41) Friday as VIVO continues to consolidate over the 18 day, preparing for the pre-split run. To recap: VIVO broke out of a 6.5 month base in June and has run up the 18 day EMA, now making one of those periodic tests of that support. Volume has swelled the past week as it crouches before the next move. Big volume spike Wednesday on an upside day. Looking for a solid volume session with a strong break higher.
Volume: 107.82K Avg Volume: 125.015K
BUY POINT: $25.65 Volume=187K Target=$30.75 Stop=$24.22
POSITION: ZUG AE - Jan. $25c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vivo.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/12/2005
AAPL (Apple Computer--$45.83; -0.47; optionable): PC's and Ipod's
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still making the test, holding the 10 day EMA (45.50) again Friday on more below average volume. This is setting up the continue breakout move after this very orderly test. To recap: Coming back to tap at the 10 day EMA on lower, below average volume. This move follows the sharp breakout a week back from its 24 week cup with handle base that formed around the 50 day EMA. Very nice test of the breakout, using the market selling to make this low volume pullback. A rebound on strong volume proves up the breakout and shows buyers ready to move in once again. The first breakout test is one of our favorite entry points.
Volume: 13.642M Avg Volume: 17.788M
BUY POINT: New: $46.38 (orig. $46.01) Volume=29M Target=$53.55 Stop=$45.39
POSITION: QAA AI - Jan. $45c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aapl.html
Play Date: 08/18/2005
JAH (Jarden--$37.70; +0.27; optionable): Branded consumables.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jah.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Volume has moved above average the past two sessions as JAH moves off of the 50 day EMA (36.36). Money flow is moving higher even as JAH makes this test. Ready to start its pre-split run. To recap: Volume jumped above average Thursday as JAH jumped off the 50 day EMA. That is exactly what you want to see, volume off the 50 day. Even though it is in the consumer products arena JAH looks solid with money flow leading higher. It needed a breather after its split, and this pullback where it has hugged the 50 day for the past two weeks has given it that. Looking to move in as it continues higher on solid trade.
Volume: 715.4K Avg Volume: 641.691K
BUY POINT: $37.88 Volume=959K Target=$43.68 Stop=$36.25
POSITION: JEP AX - Jan. $36.62c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jah.html
Play Date: 08/18/2005
TEVA (Teva Pharmaceutical--$33.29; -0.1; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teva.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Low volume test of the 10 day EMA (32.86) Friday and then a rebound to close basically flat. Still ready to make the breakout from the handle; just need to see volume return as it makes the move. To recap: Volume has jumped back above average the past two sessions as TEVA tries the breakout from its 11 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (30.36) on the bottom of the pattern. This comes after a November 2004 to May rally and the stock needed a breather. Excellent volume surge the past month as it built the right side of the base and then backing off as it formed the handle the past two weeks. Ready to follow the strong money flow higher.
Volume: 3.061M Avg Volume: 4.693M
BUY POINT: $33.68 Volume=7M Target=$38.75 Stop=$32.35
POSITION: TVQ LZ - Dec. $32.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/teva.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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