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us stock market, trading system
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AEZ; CVD; ENER (bonus); UBET; VAS; SYMC; TBL
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/23/2005
MINI (Mobile Mini--$40.41; +0.62; optionable): Metal mobile buildings
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mini.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. MINI broke out from a 15 week cup with handle base in late July, surging over 44 on strong volume. Came back to the 50 day EMA (38.98) on lower volume the past three weeks, and then volume rebounded the past two sessions as it moved up off the 50 day, volume moving over average Tuesday. Strong 6 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying as MINI consolidated, using the 200 day SMA (35.82) at the bottom. After the strong breakout it has fully tested the move. Money flow remains strong, and if it can continue showing the good volume we will be ready to move in as it continues higher through the buy point.
Volume: 146.373K Avg Volume: 95K
BUY POINT: $40.95 Volume=150K Target=$46.95 Stop=$39.69
POSITION: UAC KH - Nov. $40c (54 delta) or UAC BI - Feb. $45c (38 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mini.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 08/22/2005
^SOX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$467.52; -0.20; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/^/^sox.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Started the move, but overall volume in the market was lower and SOX could not hold the break over the buy point. Still like the nice doji over the 18 day EMA (466), and looking for another try higher. Want to see a bit more market volume as it makes the move. To recap: SOX broke out of its 11 month trading range in mid-July, rallying 35 points from the breakout point. It has spent this month testing the move, falling back toward the 50 day EMA (455.69) the past week, bottoming easily above that level. 450 marks the top of the trading range and SOX easily held above that level and Monday SOX moved back up through the 18 day EMA. Some resistance at 470, and we are looking for SOX to move through that level to start our position.
BUY POINT: $470.25 Target=$494 Stop=$463
POSITION: SXX JN - Oct. $470c (50 delta, low OI) or SXX IN - Sept. $470c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/^sox.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/22/2005
FST (Forest Oil Corp.--$43.2; +0.63; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fst.html
STATUS: Put. Rallied up to tap the 50 day EMA (43.26) again, moving on stronger, above average volume. Still looking for it to stall at this point and resume the move below the 50 day EMA (43.26) after the kiss goodbye. To recap: FST made a new 10 year high in early August, but volume lagged and the moves stalled. Moreover, the stocks started to sell on much higher, above average volume, a sign that the buyers on the way up have turned to sellers. It crashed through the 50 day EMA Tuesday, sold hard Wednesday, and then made a lower volume rebound Thursday and Friday. Monday it tapped at the 50 day on the high and turned back down on rising though still below average volume. Money flow is falling steeply ahead of the price, and we anticipate FST to continue to follow it lower after this 'kiss goodbye.' A move to the target gains us 44%ish.
Volume: 847.5K Avg Volume: 726.939K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $42.75; orig. $42.25 Volume=735K Target=$40.12 Stop=$42.89
POSITION: FST VI - Oct. $45p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fst.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
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http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
^SOX 08/22 Test 50 0 0 470.25 494 0 0 463
Buy Not Issued.
AEZ 08/22 DB hdl 5.94 +0.19 5.91 7.11 213K 314K 5.47
Entered today. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back for a great move on lower below average volume.
AMGN 08/11 Test BO 78.82 -0.37 81.65 92.88 5.1M 11M 78.78
Buy Not Hit. Gapped down tapping 78.09 at the intraday low and rallied back on below average volume. Still in the pattern.
AMX 08/04 Test BO 22.14 -0.46 22.21 25.55 1.5M 5M 21.54
Buy Not Issued. Pullback holding just above the 18 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. May continue to test back to the 22.
ANIK 08/18 Test 50 14.05 +0.44 14.55 16.95 42K 125K 13.53
Buy Not Hit.
BRCM 08/15 FlyPlat 42.83 +0.39 43.54 49.95 5.5M 11M 42.25
Buy Not Hit.
CCK 08/19 Cup hdl 16.73 -0.21 17.17 20.54 927K 1.6M 16.71
Current. Gapped down at the open and continued to move down on lower below average volume. May continue to test back to the 10 day MVA (16.60)
CMX 08/13 Test BO 46.34 +0.09 46.11 52.08 1.1M 2.6M 45.38
Buy Not Issued.
CUTR 08/03 Test BO 22.85 +0.15 22.39 26.58 228K 325K 22.27
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave some of it back on lower below average volume. Still in uptrend.
CVD 07/30 Test BO 52.44 +1.07 51.62 58.31 520K 400K 50.18
Current. Gapped up for a nice gain on strong volume surge. Did come off the day's high of 53.54.
DRIV 08/02 Test BO 39.01 -0.1 38.78 44.42 468K 1.6M 37.72
Current.
EEFT 08/13 DB hdl 28.4 -0.73 30.41 34.95 260K 515K 28.97
Buy Not Hit. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
ENER 08/23 Rv H&S 28.2 +1.25 28.23 33.94 981K 700K 26.72
Entered today. Bonus. Issued alert on nice break higher on strong
volume after testing the 18 day EMA & breakout from
20 week reverse H&S pattern w/strong 6:2 accumulation.
FLSH 08/15 DB hdl 25.21 +0.33 26.68 30.69 363K 850K 25.41
Buy Not Hit. Gapped down at the open and rallied back holding the 18 day MVA on lower below average volume. Still in the pattern.
GNSS 07/27 Test BO 24.61 -0.56 24.93 29.22 1M 1.4M 25.25
Current.
GNSS 07/11 FlyPlat 24.61 -0.56 20.81 24.82 1M 1M 25.25
Current.
HAWK 08/15 FlyPlat 11.2 +0.03 11.57 13.31 366K 642K 10.98
Buy Not Hit.
IEX 08/08 Test BO 43.32 +0.15 43.15 48.99 91K 315K 42.72
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on low volume. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA.
INGR 05/10 Asc Tri 39.75 +0.2 30.64 34.45 236K 276K 38.77
Current. Tapped 39.21 at the intraday low and rallied back on lower below average volume. Meeting resistance at 40.
KERX 08/20 Test BO 16.34 -0.37 16.95 19.97 300K 679K 16.11
Buy Not Hit. Pullback holding the 18 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Meeting some resistance at 16.32.
MCHP 08/17 Test 50 30.77 -0.23 31.22 35.95 832K 1.7M 30.44
Buy Not Hit. Pullback holding the 50 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern.
MFE 08/17 Test 50 30.92 +0.38 30.95 35.95 2.2M 2M 29.94
Entered today.
MMSI 08/03 Test 18 17.73 -0.37 17.74 20.44 102K 235K 16.79
Buy Not Issued. Ease back tapping 12.13 at the intraday low and rallied back holding just below the 10 day MVA on lower below average volume. Volume not there to enter the play. If stock starts its move up tomorrow with strong volume will be a buy.
MSTR 08/06 Test BO 76.7 -0.98 76.14 85.68 354K 750K 76.25
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday on lower below average volume. Looking for a bounce from here.
NVDA 08/06 Cup hdl 29.15 +0.19 29.94 35.72 2.1M 7M 29.65
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on low volume. Moving up after testing the breakout.
ORBK 08/22 Test 50 25.45 0 25.57 29.89 79K 200K 24.52
Buy Not Issued. Did not enter the play today because stock spent session coming off the day's high and volume was not there.
PWR 07/22 Rv H&S 10.83 -0.17 10.08 12.12 420K 1M 10.55
Current. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on lower below average volume. Meeting resistance at 11
RATE 08/08 Test 18 25.43 +0.02 24.61 29.55 86K 235K 24.64
Current.
RATE 07/06 Cup hdl 25.43 +0.02 20.62 23.74 86K 219K 24.64
Current.
SONO 08/01 Rv H&S 34.98 -0.45 35.15 40.45 100K 175K 34.98
SYKE 08/20 Test 18 10.5 +0.01 10.68 12.65 225K 409K 10.25
Buy Not Hit.
SYNM 08/20 Cup hdl 13 -0.21 12.88 15.38 667K 631K 12.35
Current. Pullback on lower but still strong volume. Came off the day's high of 13.68. Still in uptrend.
UBET 07/23 Cup hdl 6.03 +0.19 6.11 7.39 416K 564K 5.77
Current.
VAS 08/17 Test BO 26.25 +0.87 25.35 28.85 342K 247K 25.65
Current. Gapped up at the open for another great move on strong volume.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AVT 08/20 Put 24.34 +0.01 23.61 22.32 587K 950K 24.08
Buy Not Hit.
CC 08/20 Put 16.97 -0.12 17.08 16.15 1.2M 1.6M 17.55
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down showing a doji on the 200 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Tapped 17.20 at the intraday high, but could not hold the gain. Did not enter the play because volume was not there and stock did not make a clear and decisive move.
FST 08/22 Put 43.2 +0.63 42.25 40.12 848K 735K 42.89
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 42.14 at the intraday low and rallied back holding the 50 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Stock needs to roll over here.
HCP 08/17 Put 26.08 +0.15 25.71 24.59 274K 510K 26.25
Current.
IYR 08/13 Put 63.9 +0.08 63.68 61.89 2.6M 2.5M 64.38
Current.
SYMC 08/10 Put 20.53 -0.45 21.64 20.13 21M 16M 20.72
Current. Rebounded some from the low that tapped the target
for an instant. Given the heavy trade & the nasty downtrend
we decided to let it run to see if it drops further.
TBL 08/16 Put 32.64 -0.4 34.01 32.45 961K 700K 32.92
Current. Another nice move down the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
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