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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: MFE; CC; SYMC
Best Plays:
1) PPDI: Surging higher on volume after the very orderly test.
2) CRZO: Rebounding from a test of the 50 day EMA on some solid volume.
3) JCP: Turning down from the 10 day EMA on rising volume.
4) CMX: Volume was up Wednesday as CMX shows a hammer doji.
5) KERX: Volume jumped up to average as KERX started the move.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/24/2005
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Prodcut Dev.--$57.14; +2.11; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
After Hours: $57.13
STATUS: Breakout test. Strong volume Wednesday, moving easily above average, as PPDI rallied off the 50 day EMA test (53.66). This looks like the continuation of the mid-July breakout move that saw PPDI explode off of the 50 day and out of its 12 week double bottom base. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price. Ready to move in on a further solid volume gain.
Volume: 1.022M Avg Volume: 379.791K
BUY POINT: $57.38 Volume=547K Target=$64.55 Stop=$55.55
POSITION: PJQ AK - Jan. $55c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ppdi.html
Play Date: 08/24/2005
CRZO (Carrizo Oil & Gas--$21.88; +1.10; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crzo.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. CRZO broke out from a 12 week reverse head and shoulders base in early July and rallied to 23.67 on the breakout run. It got boxed around with the oil pullback two weeks back, falling toward the 50 day EMA (19.50) and tapping at it intraday on Thursday and then rebounding on strong volume. It tested the 18 day EMA (20.85) Monday and Tuesday, and then started higher Wednesday on lower though still above average volume. Relative strength is ready to break out once more, and we are ready to move in as CRZO continues the move on continued strong volume.
Volume: 307.727K Avg Volume: 299.414K
BUY POINT: $22.08 Volume=400K Target=$25.75 Stop=$20.71
POSITION: QOW AD - Jan. $20c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crzo.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/24/2005
JCP (J.C. Penney--$49.72; -0.69; optionable): Department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcp.html
STATUS: Put. Retail has enjoyed a nice run, but with the consumer struggling after the sustained gasoline price rise it is stumbling. JCP peaked in late July on very low volume and then gapped sharply lower the first week of August on strong volume. It fell through the 50 day EMA (52.70), rallied back up to test but only made it to the 10 day EMA (50.93), and then fell again. Managed to move laterally as the market consolidated the past week, but started lower Wednesday as volume started higher. Money flow is falling along with the price. Looking to move in on a continued drop. A move to the target lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 2.13M Avg Volume: 2.101M
BUY POINT: $49.65 Volume=3.2M Target=$47.59 Stop=$50.97
POSITION: JCP VJ - Oct. $50p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jcp.html
Play Date: 08/24/2005
MWD (Morgan Stanley--$51.53; -0.87; optionable): Investment brokerage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mwd.html
After Hours: $51.53
STATUS: Put. Volume was up but still below average Wednesday as MWD made another test of the 50 day EMA (52.68) on the intraday high and then rolled over. It has been a struggle for MWD, rallying back up to the 200 day SMA (53.72) after that nasty decline during the management battle, but failing to take it out. It gapped below the 50 day last week, and this test looks to be the kiss goodbye. Looking to move in on a further drop. A move to the target lands us a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 4.422M Avg Volume: 5.593M
BUY POINT: $51.42 Volume=6M Target=$49.88 Stop=$51.96
POSITION: MWD VJ - Oct. $50p (-35 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mwd.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Upside:
Not yet entered:
Play Date: 08/18/2005
ANIK (Anika Therapeutics--$13.81; -0.24; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anik.html
After Hours: $13.73
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. ANIK continues to work in its 15 month pattern, moving laterally below 14 and over the 18 day EMA (13.41). Volume remains very low and below average. Money flow remains strong as ANIK moves laterally and makes its higher lows. Pressure is building for a break above this resistance level. That is when we move in.
Volume: 22.425K Avg Volume: 100K
BUY POINT: $14.55 Volume=125K Target=$16.95 Stop=$13.53
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/anik.html
Play Date: 08/13/2005
CMX (Caremark RX--$46.22; -0.12; optionable): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume moved higher Wednesday though remained below average as CMX works laterally along the 18 day EMA (45.85) in a very tight range. Relative strength is ready to make the breakout once more, and we are just being patient and waiting for CMX to make the breakout as well.
Volume: 1.682M Avg Volume: 2.075M
BUY POINT: $46.11 Volume=2.6M Target=$52.08 Stop=$45.38
POSITION: CMX LI - Dec. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmx.html
Play Date: 08/15/2005
FLSH (M-Systems Flash Disk--$25.58; +0.37; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flsh.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Despite the struggle in the market, FLSH had a better session, recovering what was lost Monday, moving back above the 18 day EMA (25.18) and maintaining the handle. The test lower and recovery shows a shakeout that buyers used to gather some more positions. Still holding up very well in the handle, and we are just being patient and waiting for the breakout move. To recap: Still forming the handle to its 23 week base. Solid pattern that used the 200 day SMA (21.36) as support for the two legs. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength broke out as well. Positive accumulation shows net buyers. Making a 5 year new high and ready to move in as it continues the breakout.
Volume: 452.411K Avg Volume: 630.808K
BUY POINT: $26.68 Volume=850K Target=$30.69 Stop=$25.41
POSITION: VUM AE - Jan. $25c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/flsh.html
Play Date: 08/20/2005
KERX (Keryx Biopharmaceuticals--$17.01; +0.67; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kerx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume finally sparked, moving up to average Wednesday as KERX posted a solid price gain. Still a buy on a continued move higher with further solid trade. To recap: KERX is moving laterally, holding the 18 day EMA the past 6 weeks as it tests the mid-July break higher from a 6.5 month base. That base is part of a larger 16 month cup with handle, and this lateral move is the handle to that base. Solid 9 to 4 accumulation in this year's pattern showing plenty of buying. Money flow is surging higher, confirming the accumulation we see. Very nice set up and looking for volume to return (it has been very low and well below average the past three weeks) as KERX moves through the buy point.
Volume: 445.322K Avg Volume: 449.486K
BUY POINT: $16.95 Volume=679K Target=$19.97 Stop=$16.11
POSITION: QKY LC - Dec. $15c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kerx.html
Play Date: 08/23/2005
MINI (Mobile Mini--$40.5; +0.09; optionable): Metal mobile buildings
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mini.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Good volume Tuesday as MINI moved off of the 50 day EMA (39.04). Wednesday trade fell back below average as MINI posted a modest gain, basically going nowhere. Not bad for such a weak session. Still ready to move higher and follow the money flow. To recap: MINI broke out from a 15 week cup with handle base in late July, surging over 44 on strong volume. Came back to the 50 day EMA on lower volume the past three weeks, and then volume rebounded the past two sessions as it moved up off the 50 day, volume moving over average Tuesday. Strong 6 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying as MINI consolidated, using the 200 day SMA (35.86) at the bottom. After the strong breakout it has fully tested the move. Money flow remains strong, and if it can continue showing the good volume we will be ready to move in as it continues higher through the buy point.
Volume: 71.124K Avg Volume: 95K
BUY POINT: $40.95 Volume=150K Target=$46.95 Stop=$39.69
POSITION: UAC KH - Nov. $40c (54 delta) or UAC BI - Feb. $45c (38 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mini.html
Play Date: 08/22/2005
ORBK (Orbotech--$25; -0.45; optionable): Automated optical inspection products for printed circuit boards, flat panel displays
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/orbk.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. A down session for ORBK but volume was still very low as ORBK came back to hold the 10 day EMA (24.94). Still solid and not bad at all given the market selling; just a routine, low volume pullback after a solid move up off 24. This is resetting it for the next move higher if it can get some help from the NASDAQ. To recap: ORBK broke out from a 20 week double bottom base in late July and rallied to 26. It tested back with the market, holding above the 50 day EMA (23.77) on the test. A solid volume jump Thursday and then an upside move today on rising volume. Looks like a successful breakout test and a buy on a continued volume move higher. The base sports outstanding 8 to 2 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), setting the foundation for a good move. Money flow is surging ahead of price.
Volume: 80.946K Avg Volume: 112.4K
BUY POINT: $25.57 Volume=200K Target=$29.89 Stop=$24.52
POSITION: OKQ AE - Jan. $25c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/orbk.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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