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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ANX; CUTR; ENER; KERX; SNDK; HRB
Wednesday night play results:
FTO: Still consolidating nicely for the next move higher.
PPDI: Started higher again but lost its bid and closed back at the 10 day EMA.
ADCT: Still working laterally below the 50 day EMA
JCP: Rallied back up to test the 10 day EMA. Want to see it fail here to enter the play.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 08/25/2005
CONR (Conor Medsystems--$19.82; +0.46; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/conr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A new issue in December 2004, CONR rallied into early March and then fell into a 22 week double bottom with handle base. Solid 6 to 3 accumulation in the pattern (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying. Strong breakout last week on surging, above average volume shows the big money was crowding in to bid the price higher. Nice move over 20 and then a pullback the past week to test the 10 day EMA (18.97). Started the rebound Thursday on rising, above average volume. Money flow is moving higher ahead of the stock and relative strength broke out on the with the stock as it made the move. Ready to move in on a further rebound from this test. Love new issues after their first base.
Volume: 310.684K Avg Volume: 215.652K
BUY POINT: $20.05 Volume=275K Target=$23.45 Stop=$18.89
POSITION: QAP BD - Feb. $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/conr.html
Play Date: 08/25/2005
GNSS (Genesis Microchip--$25.64; +1.75; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gnss.html
After Hours: $25.75
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. GNSS broke out of a 16 month double bottom with handle base in July and rallied up the 18 day EMA (24.71) up to 27. It pulled back with the market, but got a bit carried away Wednesday. It broke below the 18 day EMA, but Thursday volume surged and GNSS rebounded through that level. Solid money flow is leading higher as GNSS continues its move from the late July breakout. Ready to move in after this nice recovery. Solid leader showing excellent action.
Volume: 2.267M Avg Volume: 929.843K
BUY POINT: $25.89 Volume=1M Target=$30.95 Stop=$24.65
POSITION: QFE LE - Dec. $25c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gnss.html
Downside:
Play Date: 08/25/2005
EPD (Enterprise Products--$25.01; -0.25; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/epd.html
STATUS: Put. Not looking as strong as other energy stocks. EPD broke down from a 6.5 month flat base to start the month, cascading through the 200 day SMA (26.03) in the first week. It bottomed at 24 and rebounded the past week, but could only make it back to the 18 day EMA (25.40). It showed a doji there Wednesday and started back down Thursday on even stronger above average volume. Money flow is leading lower. Looking to move in on a further drop to enter the play. A move to the target lands us a 65%ish gain.
Volume: 622.6K Avg Volume: 380.457K
BUY POINT: $24.94 Volume=500K Target=$23.95 Stop=$25.18
POSITION: EPD EV - Oct. $25p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/epd.html
Play Date: 08/25/2005
WFR (Memc Electronic--$16.5; +0.07; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfr.html
STATUS: Put. Not all of the stocks in this group are fairing as well as the leaders (e.g., GNSS). WFR double topped in July and August, then gapped lower two weeks back. It tried to hold the 50 day EMA (16.67) but failed this week. It made a rebound to test that level, but showed a tombstone doji Thursday, tapping the 50 day EMA on the high and fading back. Looking for volume to rise as WFR continues lower. Want to see the trade bump up. A move to the target gains us 50%ish.
Volume: 1.448M Avg Volume: 2.349M
BUY POINT: $16.34 Volume=2.4M Target=$15.06 Stop=$16.77
POSITION: WFR VW - Oct. $17.50p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wfr.html
Continuing Play:
Play Date: 08/15/2005
FLSH (M-Systems Flash Disk--$26.35; +0.77; optionable): Semiconductor memory chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flsh.html
After Hours: $26.29
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume jumped back above average Thursday in a weak market as FLSH posted a solid gain, moving right up to the breakout point on the high (26.60). Very nice recovery in the 4 week handle to the 24 week base. Money flow is leading higher and relative strength has already broken out. Looking to move in on a continued run higher with solid volume.
Volume: 759.294K Avg Volume: 633.915K
BUY POINT: $26.68 Volume=850K Target=$30.69 Stop=$25.41
POSITION: VUM AE - Jan. $25c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/flsh.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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