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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: GYI; HRB; ISSC
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 08/27/2005
RESP (Respironics--$39.08; +0.52; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/resp.html
STATUS: Ascending base. RESP broke higher off the 50 day EMA (37.03) Tuesday and Wednesday, surging on strong trade. We were tempted to enter on that move but figured we would see it make a test and then start back up. It did that Thursday, holding above the 10 day EMA (38.36) as it eased back before it rebounded Friday. Volume was not there, but we anticipate it will return this week as RESP continues its move higher. Strong 4 to 1 accumulation in the pattern, and with money flow surging higher as well we anticipate a nice continuing move from this market leader. Relative strength demonstrates it is a market leader and it is in position to resume the breakout this week.
Volume: 325.872K Avg Volume: 366.28K
BUY POINT: $39.48 Volume=525K Target=$44.95 Stop=$38.21
POSITION: RBQ AH - Jan. $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/resp.html
New Downside Play:
Play Date: 08/27/2005
YHOO (Yahoo!--$33.57; +0.09; optionable): Internet portal and search
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yhoo.html
After Hours: $33.58
STATUS: Put. YHOO is in formed a broad top over the past 5 months, a pattern resembling a head and shoulders. A rally into earnings in July came close to breaking up the pattern, but YHOO sold hard on the news, gapping down almost 4 points on the news. It recovered to the 50 day EMA (34.54; the news gapped it down through the 200 and the 50 day) but then failed at that level. Last week it managed a rebound to the 10 day EMA (33.73), but volume tailed off Thursday and Friday as the stock tested that level, showing a doji Friday, a sign that indicates this modest rebound is ending. Looking for YHOO to fail here and continued the bounce lower. A move to the target lands us a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 9.84M Avg Volume: 17.085M
BUY POINT: $33.42 Volume=17M Target=$31.92 Stop=$33.95
POSITION: YHQ VG - Oct. $35c (-64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/yhoo.html
Continuing Leader Play:
Play Date: 08/23/2005
MINI (Mobile Mini--$40.33; -0.22; optionable): Metal mobile buildings
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mini.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. No change after Friday. Volume moved higher as MINI tested below the 18 day EMA (40.15) and rebounded to hold that level. Still set for the continuation of the breakout move after this test. To recap: MINI broke out from a 15 week cup with handle base in late July, surging over 44 on strong volume. Came back to the 50 day EMA on lower volume the past three weeks, and then volume rebounded early this week as it moved up off the 50 day. Strong 6 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying as MINI consolidated, using the 200 day SMA (35.96) at the bottom. After the strong breakout it has fully tested the move. Money flow remains strong, and if it can continue showing the good volume we will be ready to move in as it continues higher through the buy point.
Volume: 90.937K Avg Volume: 83.8K
BUY POINT: $40.95 Volume=150K Target=$46.95 Stop=$39.69
POSITION: UAC KH - Nov. $40c (54 delta) or UAC BI - Feb. $45c (38 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mini.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
Dates: We are in the process of pinpointing dates for several of these leaders. As we glena more information we will include more specific dates, but with many, the pattern is good and we want to move in when they show us it is time to buy. That way we can enjoy a nice gain even as the stock sets up for the eventual announcement.
AMHC: Forecast 9-19-05 after the close.
ANSI: Tentatively forecast 10-27-05
APA: Forecast 9-9-05. Ready for a buy on an above average volume (2.5M average) move over 71.35.
CETV: Tentatively forecast in mid-October.
CHRW: Forecast 10-25-05
DNA: DNA continues its lateral move over the past 6 weeks.
GYI: Forecast 10-20-05
IEX: Tentatively forecast 10-20-05
KMG: No announcement in July with earnings; researching to pinpoint the date.
LLL: Tentatively forecast 10-24-05
LM: Did not announce on 7-21-05. Researching next date.
MRVL: No announcement last week but a leader we are not going to get rid of.
USNA: Forecast 10-18-05
WC: No announcement 8-3-05 and researching next date as WC continues its lateral move in a tight range over the 18 day EMA.
WWY: Tentatively set for mid-December but like the pattern here.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/27/2005
LSS (Lone Star Technologies--$50.65; -1.19; optionable): Oil and gas service company. Wildcard forecast 10-18-05
BACKGROUND: No splits in LSS' history but trading near an all-time high and in a range other service companies are announcing.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lss.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. After a good breakout in mid-July from an 18 week double bottom with handle base, LSS has come back to test the 50 day EMA (49.97) on lower, mostly below average volume. After a breakout and run up the 10 day EMA (52.25) it got caught in the energy selling the past two weeks. The low volume tells us, however, that it is not undergoing any distribution, just a consolidation. Want to see a nice, sharp jump off of the 50 day and up through the short term MVA. Money flow has remained solid as LSS has made this pullback. Looking for leading energy stocks to rebound after this test of support, and LSS is one of those leaders.
Volume: 446.2K Avg Volume: 605.902K
BUY POINT: $52.39 Volume=800K Target=$59.95 Stop=$51.15
POSITION: LSS KJ - Nov. $50c (57 delta) or LSS BK - Feb. $55c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lss.html
Play Date: 08/27/2005
RS (Reliance Steel--$47.56; -0.34; optionable): Metal fabrication. Forecast to announce a split 10-20-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split 7-29-99 at $34.87. Before that it announced a 3 for 2 split in June 1997 at approximately $37.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rs.html
STATUS: Breakout test. RS is testing and holding the 18 day EMA (47.35) as it consolidates the strong surge in July and early August that pushed it near 50 on that strong run that took it out of its 20 week cup base. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation in the pattern (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying during the pattern that set up the breakout and will foster the subsequent run higher. Money flow remains strong on this low volume pullback as few are selling. Want to see it hold in this general range; the intraday taps lower and rebounds last week are working to shakeout the sellers and set it up for the next move. When it starts back up on that above average volume we will be ready to enter.
Volume: 234.2K Avg Volume: 270.962K
BUY POINT: $48.25 Volume=406K Target=$54.95 Stop=$47.15
POSITION: RS LI - Dec. $45c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rs.html
Play Date: 08/27/2005
WFT (Weatherford International--$64.13; -0.42; optionable): Oil and gas equipment and services. Wildcard tentatively forecast to announce a split 10-27-05.
BACKGROUND: No splits in WFT's history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wft.html
After Hours: $64.13
STATUS: Breakout test. WFT has sold back along with the rest of the energy stocks, but it is a very mild sellback, just a $3 drop. This is a modest pullback after a nice late July breakout on strong volume from its 19 week cup with handle. Nice pattern, nice breakout, nice test. Then some strong volume as WFT jumped back above the 18 day EMA (63.94) Thursday. That shows buyers at the ready. Looking for volume to continue to jump as WFT moves up off of this near support.
Volume: 2.754M Avg Volume: 2.277M
BUY POINT: $64.82 Volume=3M Target=$72.95 Stop=$63.77
POSITION: WFT AM - Jan. $65c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wft.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/25/2005
AMHC (American Healthways--$43.44; +0.1; optionable): Specialized health services. Forecast late October
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 11-19-03 at $41.20. Prior to that a it announced a 3:2 split on 10-29-01 at $38.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amhc.html
After Hours: $43.52
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Gapped higher Friday on some better volume, but could not hold the move, giving it just about all back by the close. Still very solid in the pattern, and it just was not a great day for stocks, even those that wanted to move higher. To recap: AMHC is making a higher low over the 18 day EMA (42.93) after a two week lateral move along the 50 day EMA (42.23). This is part of an 8 week lateral base consolidating the April through June move after breaking out from an 18 week base. Positive 3 to 2 accumulation in the pattern is setting up the breakout. Like the higher low after the move off the 50 day EMA Monday and Tuesday on strong, above average volume. Ready to move in as AMHC makes the break higher on a return to above average volume.
Volume: 480.595K Avg Volume: 389.64K
BUY POINT: $44.44 Volume=578K Target=$51 Stop=$42.77
POSITION: QMH BI - Feb. $45c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amhc.html
Play Date: 08/25/2005
CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide--$60.29; -0.73; optionable): Air delivery & freight. Forecast late October; working to pinpoint the date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 stock split on 10-24-00 at a price of $51.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chrw.html
After Hours: $60.29
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Volume was up again Friday, but CHRW was testing lower, tapping the 18 day EMA (59.80) on the low and rebounding off that level. Still in solid shape as it comes off the 50 day EMA (59.05). Just waiting for the break higher. To recap: Volume has started bumping back above average as CHRW moves off the 50 day EMA at it tests the breakout from an 18 week base in mid-May. The 50 day EMA test after a breakout and run higher up the 18 day EMA is typical and a strong stock will resume the move after the test. The stronger volume on the bounce, money flow rising ahead of price, and relative strength ready for another breakout are strong indications CHRW is ready to make the next move.
Volume: 829.822K Avg Volume: 578.845K
BUY POINT: $61.33 Volume=765K Target=$68.95 Stop=$59.65
POSITION: CJQ BL - Feb. $60c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chrw.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/25/2005
NBL (Noble Energy--$84.53; -0.83; optionable):Independent oil and gas. Splits 2:1 on 9-15-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nbl.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Very low volume Friday as NBL held its lateral line along the 18 day EMA (84.68). Just letting it finish this lateral move at the 18 day and then looking for some stronger volume move higher. To recap: NBL is moving laterally along the 18 day EMA after a test of the 50 day EMA (81.57) last week. After a solid run up the 18 day EMA, a pullback to test the 50 day EMA is very typical. Money flow is leading higher ahead of the stock, and after this quick test of the 50 day and consolidation on the 18 day EMA, NBL looks ready for another move higher. It can gobble up the real estate pretty quickly once it gets going. Want to see the volume move higher as it jumps through the buy point.
Volume: 557.4K Avg Volume: 843.645K
BUY POINT: $85.68 Volume=1.3M Target=$93.88 Stop=$84.52
POSITION: NBL KQ - Nov. $85c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nbl.html
Play Date: 08/18/2005
VIVO (Meridian Biosciences--$25.21; -0.29; optionable): Diagnostic substances. Splits 3:2 on 9-6-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vivo.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Very low volume Friday as VIVO continues its tight lateral move over the 10 day EMA (25.11). Volume has shown us several above average sessions on the up days. That is telling us to get ready for the move. Just have to be patient and let it show us the move.
Volume: 82.893K Avg Volume: 128.889K
BUY POINT: $25.65 Volume=187K Target=$30.75 Stop=$24.22
POSITION: ZUG AE - Jan. $25c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vivo.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/04/2005
AMX (America Movil--$22.02; -0.4; optionable): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
STATUS: Test breakout. The small pennant continues to narrow at the 18 day EMA (22.07) as AMX consolidates the good run higher from June through July. Very low volume last week, and looking for the volume to bounce as the stock does the same. To recap: Still working laterally along the 18 day EMA in its three week breakout test. Volume has started to edge higher again. Broke out in mid-June from a 16 week cup with handle and has run up the 18 day EMA. Nice money flow moving higher and relative strength is breaking out. Just looking for volume to kick higher as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 1.585M Avg Volume: 3.283M
BUY POINT: New: $22.75 (orig. $22.21) Volume=5M Target=$25.78 Stop=$21.54
POSITION: AMX KD - Nov. $20c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amx.html
Play Date: 08/13/2005
ATVI (Activision--$20.9; -0.04; optionable): Multimedia and graphics software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atvi.html
After Hours: $21.2
STATUS: Breakout test. Testing back very modestly Thursday and Friday after the nice break higher Wednesday on above average volume. After this low volume pullback it is ready. To recap: ATVI jumped off the 18 day EMA (20.19) Wednesday. This follows a four week lateral move over the 18 day that is consolidating its breakout from a 23 week base in late July. Fell into a test of that move this month as the market sold back. ATVI did not give back the breakout at all, a sign of strength. Looks ready to continue on.
Volume: 1.088M Avg Volume: 2.162M
BUY POINT: New: $21.15 (orig. $20.05) Volume=2.8M Target=$24.45 Stop=$19.42
POSITION: AQV AD - Jan. $20c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atvi.html
Play Date: 08/24/2005
FTO (Frontier Oil--$31.2; +0.02; optionable): Oil and gas refining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fto.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Forming up very well as FTO continues the tight consolidation above the 10 day EMA (30.99). A very nice little base that is just about ready to allow the break higher. To recap: Nice volume Wednesday as FTO moved up off the 10 day EMA, making a higher low in a series of higher lows in its 7 week base. Using the 50 day EMA (29.12) as the general support as it moves up with a constant top near 32. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern shows solid buying. Ready to move in as FTO breaks higher on continued strong volume.
Volume: 868.1K Avg Volume: 1.247M
BUY POINT: $32.25 Volume=1.5M Target=$37.55 Stop=$30.35
POSITION: FTO AF - Jan. $30c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fto.html
Play Date: 08/17/2005
MSCC (Microsemi--$23.1; -0.16; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mscc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still working laterally over the 10 day EMA (22.97) as MSCC sets up for the next move higher. Nice low volume on the move shows very few sellers. Has refused to give up its gains in the market selling; It just needs the market selling to abate and it is ready to continue the run. To recap: Working laterally over the 10 day EMA as MSCC makes its second test of the 10 and 18 day EMA after coming off the 50 day EMA (21.68) to start July. That move followed the breakout from a 22 week pattern and breakout in May. This is the second test of that move, and still gives us plenty of upside. Want to see the volume back above average as MSCC makes the next move.
Volume: 340.009K Avg Volume: 791.372K
BUY POINT: $23.54 Volume=900K Target=$27 Stop=$22.29
POSITION: QMS LX - Dec. $22.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mscc.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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