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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: Plenty of strong stocks still ready to move higher.
Good movers: FTO; JOYG; MRVL; ISSC; YHOO
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 08/30/2005
THQI (THQ, Inc.--$33.48; -0.06; optionable): Multimedia and graphics. Splits 3:2 on 9-2-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. THQI used the market selling to test its nice break higher in early July that took it out of a 15 week reverse head and shoulders base. It peaked just over 36 and has spent this month easing back to the 50 day EMA (33.18). It held there Tuesday with a tight doji on the candlestick. That often indicates the pullback os over. Looking for strong volume as this market leader rebounds.
Volume: 756.679K Avg Volume: 716.023K
BUY POINT: $33.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$38.92 Stop=$33.05
POSITION: QHI LF - Dec. $30c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/thqi.html
Play Date: 08/30/2005
PCZ (Petro-Canada--$78.11; +1.72; optionable): Oil and gas refining. Splits 2:1 on 9-15-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcz.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Nice breakout in June and run higher up the short term moving averages. Rallied to 80 then slipped into the current 3 week lateral move over the 18 day. Making a higher low the past week at that near support. Volume jumped above average Tuesday as PCZ moved off support. Strong money flow and relative strength leading the way.
Volume: 285.5K Avg Volume: 221.573K
BUY POINT: $78.55 Volume=290K Target=$87.75 Stop=$76.32
POSITION: PCZ LP - Dec. $80c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pcz.html
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 08/30/2005
RECN (RSCS Connection--$28.48; +0.52; optionable): Accounting, finance, risk management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/recn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. RECN split in March and it was in its second month of its 7 month base. Huge earnings in July gapped it sharply higher, from 24 to 28. It rallied to 30 and then spent August pulling back to test the move, holding easily above the 50 day EMA (27.08) as it made the pullback. Tuesday volume was up as RECN jumped up over the 10 and 18 day EMA (28.14, 28.26). Looks ready to follow the strong money flow higher and resume the breakout move. A strong market leader ready to shoot for another new all-time high.
Volume: 452.892K Avg Volume: 666.985K
BUY POINT: $28.75 Volume=850K Target=$32.97 Stop=$27.97
POSITION: JJJ BE - Feb. $25c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/recn.html
New Downside Play:
Play Date: 08/30/2005
OSUR (Orasure Technologies--$8.99; +0.01; optionable): Oral specimen collection devices, e.g. Q.E.D. Saliva Alcohol Test
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/osur.html
STATUS: Put. This is a stock you would want to short simply by the description of its business. In any event, OSUR posted a double top with a peak in early July and another in early August. It gapped lower just before that second peak; it was gapping all over the place. Then it made 'the' gap, blasting below the 50 day EMA (9.69) on mega volume. A rebound to test and then a slide down the 10 day EMA (9.11). Rallied back up to test the 10 day the past two sessions on very low volume. Money flow is in the toilet and Orasure is heading that way. A move to the target lands us a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 227.973K Avg Volume: 656.076K
BUY POINT: $8.91 Volume=650K Target=$8.09 Stop=$9.21
POSITION: QTP VB - Oct. $10p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/osur.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 08/30/2005
WTW (Weight Watchers--$54.70; +0.8; optionable): Weight loss services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wtw.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. This is a stock we are looking at as a pre-announcement play. Nice breakout in mid-June from an 18 week cup with handle base and then a move up the 18 day EMA (54.26) to 58. It has spent the market pullback making its own pullback, testing the 50 day EMA (53.33) the past two weeks. Volume has jumped as WTW tests the 50 day, doing it again Tuesday as WTW moved through short term moving averages. Strong money flow is leading higher. Nice jump off the 50 day and ready to move in as it continues the move on some decent volume.
Volume: 479.3K Avg Volume: 475K
BUY POINT: $54.89 Volume=712K Target=$61.89 Stop=$53.27
POSITION: WTW AK - Jan. $55c (51 delta) $/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wtw.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
Dates: We are in the process of pinpointing dates for several of these leaders. As we glena more information we will include more specific dates, but with many, the pattern is good and we want to move in when they show us it is time to buy. That way we can enjoy a nice gain even as the stock sets up for the eventual announcement.
AMHC: Forecast 9-19-05 after the close.
ANSI: Tentatively forecast 10-27-05
APA: Forecast 9-9-05. Still looks ready for a buy on an above average volume (2.5M average) move over 71.35.
CETV: Tentatively forecast in mid-October.
CHRW: Forecast 10-25-05
DNA: DNA continues its lateral move over the past 6 weeks.
GYI: Forecast 10-20-05
IEX: Tentatively forecast 10-20-05
KMG: No announcement in July with earnings; researching to pinpoint the date.
LLL: Tentatively forecast 10-24-05
LM: Did not announce on 7-21-05. Researching next date.
LSS: Wildcard forecast 10-18-05
MRVL: No announcement last week but a leader we are not going to get rid of.
RS: Forecast 10-20-05.
USNA: Forecast 10-18-05
WC: No announcement 8-3-05 and researching next date as WC continues its lateral move in a tight range over the 18 day EMA.
WFT: Forecast 10-27-05
WWY: Tentatively set for mid-December but like the pattern here.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/25/2005
AMHC (American Healthways--$43.54; +0.12; optionable): Specialized health services. Forecast late October
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 11-19-03 at $41.20. Prior to that a it announced a 3:2 split on 10-29-01 at $38.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amhc.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Nice pair of dojis at the 10 day EMA (43.17) Monday and Tuesday as AMHC continues its lateral move after bouncing off the 50 day EMA (42.33). Volume as continued to creep higher; looking for that to send the price higher as well. To recap: AMHC is making a higher low over the 18 day EMA (42.93) after a two week lateral move along the 50 day EMA. This is part of an 8 week lateral base consolidating the April through June move after breaking out from an 18 week base. Positive 3 to 2 accumulation in the pattern is setting up the breakout. Like the higher low after the move off the 50 day EMA Monday and Tuesday on strong, above average volume. Ready to move in as AMHC makes the break higher on a return to above average volume.
Volume: 384.299K Avg Volume: 390.405K
BUY POINT: $44.44 Volume=578K Target=$51 Stop=$42.77
POSITION: QMH BI - Feb. $45c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amhc.html
Play Date: 08/25/2005
CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide--$60.46; -0.46; optionable): Air delivery & freight. Forecast late October; working to pinpoint the date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 stock split on 10-24-00 at a price of $51.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chrw.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Another stock moving laterally over the 18 day EMA (60.14) after bouncing off a 50 day EMA (59.18) test. Strong money flow continues to point the way, and volume was very strong last week as CHRW made some test runs higher. To recap: Volume has started bumping back above average as CHRW moves off the 50 day EMA at it tests the breakout from an 18 week base in mid-May. The 50 day EMA test after a breakout and run higher up the 18 day EMA is typical and a strong stock will resume the move after the test. The stronger volume on the bounce, money flow rising ahead of price, and relative strength ready for another breakout are strong indications CHRW is ready to make the next move.
Volume: 383.795K Avg Volume: 575.084K
BUY POINT: $61.33 Volume=765K Target=$68.95 Stop=$59.65
POSITION: CJQ BL - Feb. $60c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chrw.html
Play Date: 08/27/2005
RS (Reliane Steel--$47.59; -0.11; optionable): Metal fabrication. Forecast to announce a split 10-20-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split 7-29-99 at $34.87. Before that it announced a 3 for 2 split in June 1997 at approximately $37.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rs.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice low volume lateral move over the 18 day EMA (47.41), holding in a fairly tight range the pat week. Nice test and looking for RS to continue the breakout move with some above average volume. To recap: RS is testing and holding the 18 day EMA as it consolidates the strong surge in July and early August that pushed it near 50 on that strong run that took it out of its 20 week cup base. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation in the pattern (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buying during the pattern that set up the breakout and will foster the subsequent run higher. Money flow remains strong on this low volume pullback as few are selling. Want to see it hold in this general range; the intraday taps lower and rebounds last week are working to shakeout the sellers and set it up for the next move. When it starts back up on that above average volume we will be ready to enter.
Volume: 120.9K Avg Volume: 270.964K
BUY POINT: $48.25 Volume=406K Target=$54.95 Stop=$47.15
POSITION: RS LI - Dec. $45c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rs.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/29/2005
RMD (Resmed--$71.58; +0.09; optionable): Medical appliances. Splits 2:1 on 10-3-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmd.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the very nice breakout test, holding above the 10 day EMA (71.02) on low, below average volume. It is set up perfectly to make its move. To recap: RMD made us some solid money earlier in the month when it broke out of its 6 week lateral base over the 50 day EMA (67.05), rallying over 75 on the move. It has come back on lower trade to test the move, holding at the 10 day EMA Monday with a very nice, tight doji on that near support. Volume jumped back above average Monday as RMD made this test. Strong money flow remains even on the pullback. Looking for a continued rebound off this level on more solid volume to enter the play on this outstanding leader.
Volume: 248.2K Avg Volume: 270.355K
BUY POINT: $72.05 Volume=350K Target=$79.95 Stop=$70.77
POSITION: RMD AN - Jan. $70c (63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rmd.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/29/2005
FLO (Flowers Foods--$26.81; +0.06; optionable): Processed and packaged goods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flo.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Nice doji over the 18 day EMA (26.16) on continued low, below average volume as FLO tests the blast higher from two weeks back. Looks very ready to continue the breakout move. To recap: FLO broke out from a 6 month base in late May and then rallied up the 18 day EMA through June and July. After that move it needed a breather and came back to the 50 day EMA. It bolted off that level just over a week back and then slid back last week to test that move. It has held above the 18 day EMA on this low volume test. We are looking for an above average volume bounce off this level to start the play and ride FLO higher on its next run up the 18 day EMA.
Volume: 162.2K Avg Volume: 248.559K
BUY POINT: $27.12 Volume=300K Target=$31.65 Stop=$25.96
POSITION: FWW AW - Jan. $26.625c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flo.html
Play Date: 08/18/2005
JAH (Jarden--$38.46; +0.36; optionable): Branded consumer products; just about everything you can imagine.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jah.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. In times of economic unease the consumer basics are great; you have to have them even if you are cutting back in other areas. JAH was already a leader, and this is going to held it further. Indeed, volume jumped back above average Tuesday as JAH bounced up off the 10 day EMA (37.68), continuing the bounce off the 50 day EMA (36.69). It is starting higher after a 7 week pullback to test a solid run higher; it split in early July, and this pullback started at that point. That is pretty typical. Now it is back on the upswing, following strong money flow higher. Ready to move in on continued strong trade.
Volume: 698.5K Avg Volume: 645.152K
BUY POINT: New: $38.64 (orig. $37.88) Volume=959K Target=$43.68 Stop=$36.25
POSITION: JEP AX - Jan. $36.62c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jah.html
Play Date: 08/27/2005
RESP (Respironics--$38.81; +0.11; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/resp.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume jumped up to average Tuesday as RESP continues its lateral move the past week, holding above the 10 day EMA (38.49) after a strong volume break higher off the 50 day EMA (37.16) last week. Looks ready to follow the money flow higher. To recap: RESP broke higher off the 50 day EMA last Tuesday and Wednesday, surging on strong trade. We were tempted to enter on that move but figured we would see it make a test and then start back up. It is making this test right now. Strong 4 to 1 accumulation in the pattern, and with money flow surging higher as well we anticipate a nice continuing move from this market leader. Relative strength demonstrates it is a market leader and it is in position to resume the breakout this week.
Volume: 339.662K Avg Volume: 368.089K
BUY POINT: $39.48 Volume=525K Target=$44.95 Stop=$38.21
POSITION: RBQ AH - Jan. $40c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/resp.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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