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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Good movers: ANDS; CELL; CHRW; DADE; FTO; PCZ; RESP; SYK; VIVO; WFT
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 09/01/2005
DNR (Denbury Resources--$46.71; +1.48; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Splits 2:1 on a date to be announced
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dnr.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. A short little double bottom has formed the past 5 weeks, using the 50 day EMA (43.35) as support. After making a higher low to start the week DNR bounced up Wednesday and Thursday. Solid money flow. Looking to start a position as it continues higher and then will add to the position after a test that holds and rebound.
Volume: 387.5K Avg Volume: 615K
BUY POINT: $46.95 Volume=922K Target=$52.82 Stop=$44.77
POSITION: DNR LI - Dec. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dnr.html
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 09/01/2005
DP (Diagnostic Products--$54.32; +0.32; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dp.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. DP last split back in 2001, and we made some good money off of it way back then (it was one of the few strong stocks in 2000 and 20001. Since then it has basically moved laterally in a big base. This year it formed into a new base sporting solid 9 to 6 accumulation (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 6 down price weeks on rising volume). After a huge surge in July on earnings it has dropped back to support at 52 to form the handle, moving on very low volume. It has set up well, but as we say, until it shows us the move it is jus a pretty picture. Looking for a good volume surge as DP breaks higher and once again becomes a market leader. It is near an all-time high, so a breakout will give it some room to run.
Volume: 77.5K Avg Volume: 133.08K
BUY POINT: $54.65 Volume=200K Target=$62.85 Stop=$52.96
POSITION: DP LK - Dec. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dp.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 09/01/2005
IMN (Imation--$42; -0.11; optionable): Magnetic and optical removable data storage products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. IMN has spent the past four weeks pulling back to the 50 day EMA (40.95) to form the handle to its 14 month base. Positive 12 to 10 accumulation in the base (12 up price weeks on rising volume to 10 down price weeks on rising volume) has set up the breakout move. IMN was a leader in the dog days of 2001 and 2002. It has moved laterally the past 2.5 years. This base is a nice set up for a breakout and new run. Just have to let it make the strong breakout.
Volume: 184.6K Avg Volume: 195.089K
BUY POINT: $43.92 Volume=293K Target=$50.45 Stop=$41.65
POSITION: IMN AH - Jan. $40c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/imn.html
Continuing Leader Play:
Play Date: 08/31/2005
MDT (Medtronic--$56.99; -0.01; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdt.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Tried to stretch the Wednesday move, rallying to 57.46 on the high. Could not hold the move as volume faded back below average, and faded back to flat. Not bad action, leaving still in position to make the break to the new all-time high. To recp: Nice test of the breakout from a 22 week cup with handle base that formed using the 200 day SMA (52.11) as support. It broke out in mid-August and rallied to 58. It made a quick test of the 18 day EMA (55.75) on the Tuesday low and then rebounding on strong volume. Strong 8 to 3 accumulation in the base (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying to support the breakout and run higher. Nice test and good volume jump higher Wednesday. Ready to move in as it breaks through the recent highs at 30.
Volume: 3.068M Avg Volume: 3.433M
BUY POINT: $57.21 Volume=4.2M Target=$64.35 Stop=$55.95
POSITION: MDT KK - Nov. $55c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mdt.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
Dates: We are in the process of pinpointing dates for several of these leaders. As we glena more information we will include more specific dates, but with many, the pattern is good and we want to move in when they show us it is time to buy. That way we can enjoy a nice gain even as the stock sets up for the eventual announcement.
AMHC: Forecast 9-19-05 after the close.
ANSI: Tentatively forecast 10-27-05
APA: Forecast 9-9-05. Still looks ready for a buy on an above average volume (2.5M average) move over 71.35.
CETV: Tentatively forecast in mid-October.
CHRW: Ripped of the split announcement ahead of time.
DNA: DNA continues its lateral move over the past 6 weeks.
GYI: Forecast 10-20-05
IEX: Tentatively forecast 10-20-05
KMG: No announcement in July with earnings; researching to pinpoint the date.
LLL: Tentatively forecast 10-24-05
LM: Did not announce on 7-21-05. Researching next date.
LSS: Wildcard forecast 10-18-05
MRVL: No announcement last week but a leader we are not going to get rid of.
RS: Forecast 10-20-05.
USNA: Forecast 10-18-05
WC: No announcement 8-3-05 and researching next date as WC continues its lateral move in a tight range over the 18 day EMA.
WFT: Forecast 10-27-05
WWY: Tentatively set for mid-December but like the pattern here.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 09/01/2005
FO (Fortune Brands--$86.41; -0.57; optionable): Consumer products (hardware, spirits/wine, golf products, office products). Forecast to announce a split 10-21-05
BACKGROUND: No splits in FO's history.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fo.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. FO is working laterally the past 3 weeks, holding above the 50 day EMA (86.27) in a fairly tight range. This comes after the June breakout from a 10 week cup with handle base and a run up to 90. After very low volume for the past three weeks trade jumped up Wednesday and Thursday to well above average as FO moved in a tight range over the 50 day. That often precedes the break higher. Want to see that strong volume continue as FO moves higher so it can clear the resistance from mid-August.
Volume: 778.4K Avg Volume: 533.168K
BUY POINT: $87.78 Volume=800K Target=$98.75 Stop=$86.05
POSITION: FO LQ - Dec. $85c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fo.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 08/25/2005
AMHC (American Healthways--$43.99; +0.29; optionable): Specialized health services. Forecast late October
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 11-19-03 at $41.20. Prior to that a it announced a 3:2 split on 10-29-01 at $38.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amhc.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume was back above average Thursday as AMHC started toward the break higher. AMHC tested back to the 50 day EMA (42.44) and then bounced in mid-August. Did not get far before starting this lateral move, but we like that it is not giving up its gains. Moreover, this move occurred as the market sold off. Not bad. Looking for volume to continue higher as AMHC starts the next move. To recap: AMHC is making a higher low over the 18 day EMA (43.20) after a two week lateral move along the 50 day EMA. This is part of an 8 week lateral base consolidating the April through June move after breaking out from an 18 week base. Positive 3 to 2 accumulation in the pattern is setting up the breakout. Like the higher low after the move off the 50 day EMA Monday and Tuesday on strong, above average volume. Ready to move in as AMHC makes the break higher on a return to above average volume.
Volume: 438.487K Avg Volume: 388.427K
BUY POINT: $44.44 Volume=578K Target=$51 Stop=$42.77
POSITION: QMH BI - Feb. $45c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amhc.html
Play Date: 08/09/2005
ANSI (Advanced Neuromo--$51.44; -0.05; optionable): Medical instruments. Forecast 10-27-05
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 6-6-03 at $48.90.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ansi.html
STATUS: Test breakout. ANSI is moving in a very narrow, tight range the past two weeks, tapping at the 18 day EMA (50.42) on the lows. Big break higher in late July on the earnings announcement and it is moving laterally ever since. That July break higher was out of a big 19 month double bottom base. Great surge and good test. Now it is set up to continue the move. Want to see that very low, below average volume surge as it makes the move.
Volume: 246.27K Avg Volume: 402.094K
BUY POINT: $51.45 Volume=600K Target=$60.78 Stop=$49.65
POSITION: UAI KJ - Nov. $50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ansi.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/30/2005
THQI (THQ, Inc.--$33.51; -0.1; optionable): Multimedia and graphics. Splits 3:2 on 9-2-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
After Hours: $33.55
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Still moving over the 50 day EMA (33.21) in a very tight range. Volume has started to swell he past week and money flow is moving higher. Looking for a strong move off the 50 day EMA. To recap: THQI used the market selling to test its nice break higher in early July that took it out of a 15 week reverse head and shoulders base. It peaked just over 36 and has spent this month easing back to the 50 day EMA. It has held the 50 day. Looking for strong volume as this market leader rebounds.
Volume: 676.897K Avg Volume: 718.152K
BUY POINT: $33.88; Next: 34.35 Volume=1.1M Target=$38.92 Stop=$33.05
POSITION: QHI LF - Dec. $30c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/thqi.html
Play Date: 08/29/2005
RMD (Resmed--$72.20; -0.14; optionable): Medical appliances. Splits 2:1 on 10-3-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmd.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still a buy here as RMD took a breather Thursday. Nice test of the 10 day EMA (71.43) has set up the next move. To recap: RMD made us some solid money earlier in the month when it broke out of its 6 week lateral base over the 50 day EMA (67.45), rallying over 75 on the move. It has come back on lower trade to test the move, holding at the 10 day EMA. Strong money flow remains even on the pullback. Looking for a continued rebound off this level on more solid volume to enter the play on this outstanding leader.
Volume: 254.5K Avg Volume: 269.623K
BUY POINT: $72.05 Volume=350K Target=$79.95 Stop=$70.77
POSITION: RMD AN - Jan. $70c (63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rmd.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/20/2005
CMVT (Comverse Technology--$25.76; -0.02; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmvt.html
After Hours: $25.84
STATUS: Test breakout. Still in that test of the 18 day EMA (25.71) after the breakout from its 18 week ascending triangle. A nice, orderly 4 week test, and now volume is picking up some the past three sessions as CMVT showed a hammer doji. Looking for that volume to come on even stronger as it makes the move through the buy point.
Volume: 1.709M Avg Volume: 1.801M
BUY POINT: $26.32 Volume=2.1M Target=$29.95 Stop=$25.55
POSITION: CQV AE - Jan. $25c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmvt.html
Play Date: 08/30/2005
RECN (RSCS Connection--$29.01; +0.01; optionable): Accounting, finance, risk management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/recn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Good move Wednesday but volume was not there as RECN jumped off the 18 day EMA (28.41). Tried to continue Thursday on better volume (though still below average) but ran out of gas. Looking for more volume as it continues the rebound from the breakout test. To recap: RECN split in March and it was in its second month of its 7 month base. Huge earnings in July gapped it sharply higher, from 24 to 28. It rallied to 30 and then spent August pulling back to test the move, holding easily above the 50 day EMA (27.08) as it made the pullback. Tuesday volume was up as RECN jumped up over the 10 and 18 day EMA. Looks ready to follow the strong money flow higher and resume the breakout move. A strong market leader ready to shoot for another new all-time high.
Volume: 511.8K Avg Volume: 662.564K
BUY POINT: New: $29.25 (orig. $28.75) Volume=850K Target=$32.97 Stop=$27.97
POSITION: JJJ BE - Feb. $25c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/recn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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