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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Thursday night play results
BCON: Gapped higher but could not hold the move.
FIX: Hmm. Turned down and gave away much of the Wednesday and Thursday move. Volume was lower and it held the 10 day EMA, so it is still in position to make the move.
RTK: Continued to work laterally on lower volume.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/03/2005
DRRX (Durect--$6.37; +0.41; no options): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drrx.html
STATUS: Flat base. DRRX broke out from a 2 year trading range in June and ran up the 18 day EMA (5.91) in a nice breakout run. It peaked at 6 and then started the current lateral move, using the 18 day EMA as support. It made a quick test of the 50 day EMA (5.53) in August and recovered quickly. Strong 3 to 0 accumulation in the lateral move shows plenty of buying, setting up the next break higher. Friday it looks as is DRRX is doing just that iwht a strong volume move higher. Looking to move in on a continued break higher as DRRX follows the money higher. Relative strength broke out as well, a good indication there is a strong move ahead.
Volume: 477.639K Avg Volume: 362.383K
BUY POINT: $6.48 Volume=544K Target=$7.95 Stop=$6.05
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/drrx.html
Play Date: 09/03/2005
IEX (Idex--$43.28; -0.22; optionable): Pump products, etc. for the movement of gases, fluids
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iex.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. IEX has formed a short 5 week base over the 50 day EMA (41.91) after the July breakout from a 19 week cup with handle. Good consolidation of the breakout from the pattern showing 9 to 6 accumulation. Strong money flow is leading higher, and this leader looks ready to make the next move higher and move to a new all-time high.
Volume: 81.6K Avg Volume: 235.345K
BUY POINT: $43.82 Volume=353K Target=$49.35 Stop=$42.95
POSITION: IEX AH - Jan. $40c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/iex.html
Play Date: 09/03/2005
MTZ (Mastec--$11.36; -0.16; optionable): Designs and builds energy transportation systems, telecom systems, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtz.html
STATUS: Breakout test. This is another Katrina-related play that is also in a good technical pattern. MTZ formed a 7 month cup with handle base and broke out in early August on strong volume. It tested back and last Wednesday surged higher on strong volume. It then tested back to end the week on much lower volume. After this little pullback it will be ready to continue the breakout higher. Excellent 9 to 5 accumulation in the pattern shows MTZ was building into the breakout well ahead of Katrina. Excellent money flow and a relative strength breakout. Well positioned to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 217K Avg Volume: 209.221K
BUY POINT: $11.65 Volume=300K Target=$13.98 Stop=$10.98
POSITION: MTZ AB - Jan. $10c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mtz.html
Play Date: 09/03/2005
NIHD (NII Hldgs--$78.05; +1.85; optionable): Telecom wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nihd.html
After Hours: $78
STATUS: Breakout test. Huge surge in late July as NIHD reported strong results. That shot it off the 18 day EMA (now at 75.32), breaking it out of a 15 week base. It has spent the past five weeks moving laterally over the 18 day EMA on low, below average volume, setting up the next move higher. Friday it posted a good price gain but volume was not there. Looking for that volume to return as it continues higher. Accumulation in the lateral move is solid at 3 to 0.
Volume: 291.466K Avg Volume: 674.412K
BUY POINT: $78.55 Volume=1M Target=$89.95 Stop=$75.92
POSITION: QHQ CP - Jan. $80c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nihd.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/03/2005
USTR (United Stationers--$46; -0.59; optionable): Wholesale business products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ustr.html
STATUS: Put. USTR broke higher in early July, a nice breakout from a 7 month double bottom with handle base. It could not extend the move, however, and after 4 weeks it tumbled lower, breaking through the 200 day SMA (46.65) on huge volume. It has tried to recover over the past three weeks, but it is in trouble. Friday it turned down from the 200 day again, this time on even stronger volume. Money flow is diving ahead of price and it just took a nasty turn lower. Looking to move in on a further drop from here. A move to the target lands us a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 513.209K Avg Volume: 164.106K
BUY POINT: $46.91 Volume=170K Target=$45.05 Stop=$46.75
POSITION: QTR VI - Oct.$45p (-28 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ustr.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, CELG, BLUD, BR, COH, HW, PSYS, RTSX, STN
HW: This looks like trouble as HW rallied back to the 50 day EMA after the breakdown but now it is turning back down again.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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