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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: FIC; FORD; GENZ; GNSS; MFE
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/07/2005
CDIS (Cal Dive--$60.74; +1.8; optionable): Oil and gas services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cdis.html
After Hours: $60.74
STATUS: Test breakout. CDIS is one of the offshore service companies that shot higher as Katrina approached and hit. Before that it was falling, slicing through the 50 day EMA (56.50). It stormed back, hitting 64 last Wednesday. It started back from there and on Tuesday tapped the 50 day EMA on the intraday low and rebounded on strong volume. Wednesday it added a gain on lower but still strong trade. This action follows a mid-June breakout from a 15 week cup with handle and run up the 10 and 18 day EMA. The news from the Gulf is that a lot of the feared damage did not occur. Thus we want to see CDIS keep the strong volume from here as it continues higher.
Volume: 1.473M Avg Volume: 688.928K
BUY POINT: $61.11 Volume=1.3M Target=$69.95 Stop=$58.98
POSITION: KPQ LL - Dec. $60c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cdis.html
Play Date: 09/07/2005
CRXL (Crucell--$23.41; +0.88; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crxl.html
After Hours: $23.52
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nicely formed 10 week base sporting solid 3 to 1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume). That shows net buying and has set CRXL up for its breakout and move to a new all-time high. Volume surged Wednesday as CRXL started the breakout. Ready to move in as it continues. Solid.
Volume: 327.368K Avg Volume: 203.398K
BUY POINT: $23.65 Volume=305K Target=$28.39 Stop=$22.25
POSITION: JXU LX - Dec. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crxl.html
Play Date: 09/07/2005
HCR (Manor Care--$39.86; +0.72; optionable): Long term care facilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hcr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong volume Wednesday as HCR started toward the breakout from a somewhat skewed 12 week base. Used the 200 day SMA (36.11) on the low in July as support. Outstanding 7 to 2 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a lot of strong buying that is setting up the breakout to a new 7 year high. Strong money flow. Like the volume surge and ready to move in as it continues higher on solid trade.
Volume: 1.941M Avg Volume: 827.52K
BUY POINT: $40.05 Volume=1.2M Target=$45.45 Stop=$39.09
POSITION: HCR AH - Jan. $40c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hcr.html
Play Date: 09/07/2005
WEN (Wendys International--$48.55; +1.48; optionable): Hamburger restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wen.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. WEN broke out from a 14 month cup with handle base in April and has rallied up the 50 day EMA (47.54), exploding higher in late July on a strong earnings report card. That shot it over 52. In the August market selling WEN pulled back as well but on mostly lower, below average volume. It filled the gap completely, holding at support at 46. From there it bounced Tuesday and then Wednesday, showing very strong volume today. Money flow is surging ahead of the stock. Ready to move in as it continues off this test.
Volume: 3.781M Avg Volume: 1.96M
BUY POINT: $48.77 Volume=2.5M Target=$55.95 Stop=$47.41
POSITION: WEN AJ - Jan. $50c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wen.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/07/2005
ETR (Entergy--$74.72; -0.94; optionable): Electric utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/etr.html
STATUS: Put. After a strong 15 month 45 degree run higher ETR is struggling some. After a run that took it from 50 to 79 it deserves to struggle a bit. It made a peak in early August and then a lower high on very low volume late in that money. It tumbled through the 50 day EMA (75.58), and then rebounded Friday. Tuesday it showed a big tombstone doji where it broke through the 50 day but could not hold that move on the close. Wednesday ETR was selling again. Looks ready to move down toward the 200 day SMA (71.51) on this pullback as ETR moves into a base forming phase. We are using that to grab some downside. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 2.016M Avg Volume: 1.109M
BUY POINT: $74.59 Volume=1.1M Target=$72.55 Stop=$75.62
POSITION: ETR VO - Oct. $75c (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/etr.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/11/2005
AMGN (Amgen--$81.66; -0.72; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amgn.html
After Hours: $81.66
STATUS: Flying plateau. Good jump higher Tuesday on rising though average volume as AMGN tested toward the top of the 7 week flat base that formed after the mid-July gap higher. It has refused to give back the gains, a sign of strength. Money flow remains strong and AMGN is showing signs it is ready to make the next move. Want to see the volume surge as it does.
Volume: 5.54M Avg Volume: 9.48M
BUY POINT: $81.65 Volume=11M Target=$92.88 Stop=$78.78
POSITION: VAM AQ - Jan. $85c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amgn.html
Play Date: 09/01/2005
RTK (Rentech--$2.68; +0.01; no options): Gas to liquids processing for natural gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rtk.html
STATUS: Breakout test. RTK continues its lower volume test of the 10 day EMA (2.63) after a strong breakout from late August as RTK blew out of its 8 month cup with handle base. Nice tight doji Wednesday on the 10 day EMA as volume edged back up toward average. Excellent test and ready to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 512.6K Avg Volume: 377.945K
BUY POINT: $2.98 Volume=538K Target=$3.78 Stop=$2.77
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rtk.html
Play Date: 09/03/2005
TLWT (Telewest Global--$22.21; -0.05; optionable): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tlwt.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Two more dojis over the 10 day EMA (22.05) as TLWT continues to form its handle that sets up the breakout. Volume moved up to average Wednesday, and that often indicates the breakout move is coming. Looks very good. To recap: The wireless telecom sector has shaped up very well overall the past few months, and TLWT is no exception. It is working on building a handle to its current 9 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (21.75) as support. Positive 3 to 2 accumulation in the base is setting up the breakout move.
Volume: 1.667M Avg Volume: 1.737M
BUY POINT: $22.52 Volume=2.7M Target=$25.95 Stop=$22.03
POSITION: QTX AX - Jan. $22.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tlwt.html
Play Date: 09/06/2005
URS (URS Corp.--$38.41; -0.36; no options): Engineering services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urs.html
STATUS: Flat base. Gapped higher Wednesday but could not hold the move and posted a modest lost on lower though still above average volume. Testing the waters of a breakout; just being patient for another strong volume surge through the buy point. To recap: This is a post-Katrina play. URS is moving toward a new 15 year high, using the current 9 week flat base as the launch point for that next move. Volume has kicked up with he market the past week as URS came off of the 50 day EMA (36.89). Solid 3 to 2 accumulation in the lateral move (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) is setting up the next move. Money flow is leading higher ahead of the price. Looking for it to continue following it higher on continued solid trade.
Volume: 351.5K Avg Volume: 309.149K
BUY POINT: $38.98 Volume=464K Target=$44.75 Stop=$37.05
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/urs.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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