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yahoo stock, us stock market
Begin Part 4 of 4
BRL (Barr Laboratories--$85.00; -1.80; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 3:2 split on 5-31-00 with a board meeting. The stock price was $52. The annual shareholder meeting 10-26-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Given the recent lower volume gains, we were watching for a potential pullback, and it started Wednesday as BRL gapped up to test the late July and late August highs, but could not push through them and promptly sold back on sharply increased volume. The stock followed that move by gapping down and closing with a tight doji on the 10 day MVA today as volume dropped significantly to 653,700 (average 815,700). This action provides a great example of why we are wary of lower volume gains. From here, we are still waiting to take positions until we see a more stable, lateral consolidation over support. After we see it, we can look for a solid breakout move to take out the recent double tops at 90 and carry the move to a new high.
BUY POINT: Breakout: After consolidating here on lower volume, a move to a new high (over 90.60) on volume of 1 million or greater. Stop: 85. Aggressive: After holding, a move back over 87.50 on above average volume. Stop: 84.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $85 calls to buy (BRL BQ).
CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$70.70; -0.20; optionable): Banking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5:4 split on 6-29-98. The stock price was $54.63. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-20-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has insufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: CBH fell back from the recent high Wednesday, and continued down today, showing a small loss on the day on slightly decreased volume of 140,600 (average 147,600). The stock had struggled to sustain a move over the 50 day (69.81), and was then showing smaller gains on weakening volume, so this gentle pullback is not entirely surprising. The stock is holding support over the 10 day MVA (70.65), and could form a handle to this 'v' cup (once again, the 'v' courtesy of the attacks), giving it a chance to gather some strength for a solid breakout run. The former pattern high is at 77.90, made on a break from a cup with handle in July.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move back over 72 with increased, above average volume. Stop: 69. Breakout: After froming a handle, 72.82 on volume of 225,000. Stop: 69.
POSITION: December $70 calls to buy (CBH LN).
FRX (Forest Labs--$72.39; -1.91; optionable): Drugs.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frx.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 12-18-00 with a board meeting. The stock price was $135. Prior to that announced a 2:1 split on 2-23-98 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price of $62. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: FRX has continued down after Tuesday's strong drop and is now struggling with resistance at the 50 day MVA (74.14). The stock made a brief attempt to clear that level yesterday, but it could not hold the move. Once again, the stock gapped down to open today, and after trading in a rather wide range between the 50 day and 71.30, FRX pulled into a loose doji to close as volume fell to 1.34 million (average 1.40 million). At this point, the stock has made two consecutive attempts to clear the 50 day and failed, so from here we will look for stronger selling down through the intraday low to trigger put positions (although we may see another test of the 50 day before we get the move), especially if we get more market weakness. The initial target is the 200 day at 68.15.
BUY POINT: From here, stronger selling down through 71.25. Test: After a weaker test of the 50 day fails, stronger selling through 72.25.
POSITION: November $85 puts to buy (FHA WQ).
GD (General Dynamics--$80.36; -3.39; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 10-17-01 before the open with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gd.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 3-4-98 at a stock price of $89. The company has just enough authorized shares for a 3:2 split, but can certainly announce contingent on an increase in the number of authorized shares.
STATUS: After making a weak push up from the 18 day earlier this week going into earnings, with the announcement news GD crashed back hard on sharply increased volume and has now given back all of the recent gains shown since the markets re-opened. The stock fell back through the short-term and 50 day MVA's (50 day at 84.53) Wednesday, and continued down today as volume surged to 5.86 million (average1.32 million). GD had made a very solid move with sector strength after the attacks, but defense plays are not universally solid now, and GD is now an aggressive downside play after a relief bounce fails. The 200 day is at 75.83 and will serve as the initial target.
BUY POINT: After a weaker bounce fails in the 82 range, a move down through 80 on strong selling volume.
POSITION: November $90 puts to buy (GD WR).
MIKE (Michaels Stores--$47.08; -0.87+0.02; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mike.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MIKE has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-13-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Volume has fallen back after Tuesday's strong move as MIKE has shown some volatility, but held support over the pivot (recent highs at 45). Today the stock made a push up to 48 before pulling back to close with a loose doji on lower volume of 244,400 (average 358,500). MIKE has made some very strong moves since early October with good earnings news, moving back over a previous double top and moving toward the all-time high of 49.63. From here, we would like to see the stock move into a steady consolidation over 46 (10 day MVA at 45.15) on continued light volume and rest a bit before we see the next run up. That is what it did earlier this month.
BUY POINT: After holding the 46 range, a move back up on above average volume. Stop: 44.
POSITION: December $40 calls to buy (IKQ LH - under 100 open interest).
TEAM TRADES
Today we were in the hunt for some SOX puts. They were selling on the open, but the techs were holding up relatively well to the rest of the market. Still, the SOX hit our buy point about 15 minutes into the session and this was a quick one to three day play. Se we entered partial positions at that point. When we enter trades early in the session, we usually do so piecemeal. That way we can add to if we get the move or we see a better move set up later. As it turned out, the latter was the case.
We picked up the first options at $40.90, and watched as the index ran down to 418. Not bad; an 8 point move off the bat. Then the index reversed and rallied up toward the opening price at 428. We did not like that, but we were also aware that it might very well test that point and still fail. Much like a move to the upside that will come back and test the open before it moves higher again, the same can happen to the downside. It did that, but it made a higher low. It rallied again and failed again. It made another higher low. We drew an up trendline along those lows. We also drew a horizontal resistance line across the tops at 428. We had set the battleground: an ascending wedge that had to break over the session high or else it would fail. If it broke out, we would have to close out the positions. If it failed, we would add to positions.
As the index tapped the trendline it rallied up for the next 7 or so minutes; looked as if it could make the break. It tapped 428, however, and turned. The next five minutes it broke the up trendline in a big move. We fired off another order at 37.10. The index then tanked all the way down to 410, and 18 point drop. The options were around 46 on the ask, but then it rallied to 419 and failed. It then rallied in the last 20 minutes to close just under 418.
We played the opening move and the later pattern when it gave us the signal. We did not close the positions as we were looking for a target of 400. In retrospect we perhaps should have done so on the second bounce from the 410 level. If we get some weakness in the morning, we will look at moving out of the positions if stocks hold at support and start to rally.
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
Good Movers: DAP made a new high today, with volume lower but still strongly above average.
Stocks/Indexes from Wednesday's report:
FIMG: Continued its pullback, closing with a doji just above the 18 day MVA, tested on the low of 15.15. Looks good!
LLTC: Managed a small move down, but this one did not pan out in selling that did not continue at yesterday's intensity.
QCOM: And this one actually gained as volume fell back to average levels.
Indexes:
Indexes: The QQQ ended up looking positive today; indeed, it closed $0.88 higher, and above the gap up point of 6 days ago and never hitting our downside buy point. It will try to test the 50 day MVA again (tapped on the high today at 34.69), but that may not be tomorrow. On continued selling, see last night's report for details. The DJX just eased below its 18 day MVA on lower volume; first level of support is at 89.50-90, so on the close at 91.63, that is an aggressive play from here. Buy point was 91.75.
Previous plays:
AHMH: Running up from the 50 day MVA. Buy point is 18.30 for stock and a run to 22.
BLL: Held at 59.28 with a small gain as volume dropped back again, well below average levels.
CFFN: Held the 10 day after yesterday's close there, but volume shot up to average on the move.
CMNT: Tapped 14 as expected, then bounced back, though not with much strength; will need some consolidation.
CVBF: Volume shot above average on a hold at the 50 day MVA; look for a break of the 18 day MVA.
DL: Sold down to the 50 day MVA, from where it bounced on sharply higher and above average volume.
DP: Holding just under 10 day MVA, moving up from a tap at support (18 day) on rising volume.
FTO: Sold back to the 50 day MVA on strong volume. It bounced, but closed below the 18 day MVA on heavy volume.
GTY: Held the 18 day MVA on shrinking volume that is well below average.
IMCL: Volume remained low and the stock held with a doji at the 18 day MVA. Seems like now or never; please see the 10-13 report for buy point and other details.
ITRI: Held at the 10 day MVA after yesterday's abrupt drop to that support. Volume remained below average.
KKD: Looks like it is forming that handle, pulling back to the 10 day MVA on lower volume.
PPDI: Broke below the 200 day MVA on continued selling.
PSSI: Sold below the 50 day MVA, but is trying to recover.
PZZA: Matched Wednesday's intraday low on today's low, and continues to look good in the handle. Buy point is 29.23 on volume of 357,000 or higher, stock and/or January $22.50 calls to buy (ZZQ AX).
QLGC: Caught support at the 10 day MVA, which can serve as good support in an uptrend. After yesterday's selling, the bounce back up from the support on continued strong volume is a very good sign.
RESP: Broke below the 50 day MVA, not a good sign for this already volatile stock.
RJR: Sold off below the 50 day MVA on strong volume; earnings were better than expected and are expected to improve, though the company gave a lowered outlook.
UHCO: Still holding up in the handle, above the 10 day MVA.
UNWR: Sold back to close just above the 10 day MVA.
VISG: At support of the 10 day MVA as volume fell back again and is quite low (below average). Looks pretty good!
VGR: Volume dropped way back and the stock was able to hold support at the 18 day MVA with a tight doji. Still looks good!
WMT: Tapped the 18 day MVA on the low; may not have completed the pullback that started basically 6 days ago, but is close.
Best Plays:
1) JDSU: Testing the break over resistance. An old name may have some life.
2) MGAM: Threw a volume spike in the handle.
3) ROST: Getting ready for a move up.
4) MSFT: Formed a wedge.
Covering two former leaders that are looking better
JNPR (Juniper Networks--$23.00; +1.87; optionable (JUX): Hardware: Networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnpr.html
STATUS: Reversed its downtrend from the April highs near the first of this month, and volume has been huge on the run up to the October high at 24.15. Wednesday JNPR was hit with selling like many tech stocks, but held support at the 20 range (the intraday low tapped 20.31) as volume dropped back. It was still strong at 36 million (avg. 14.8 million), bouncing the stock back up from the support. JNPR may re-test 20 or even its 50 day MVA at 18.31, but we think the stock will be heading higher. Our initial target is 30. Showing good money flow and buying.
BUY POINT: Aggressive after a pullback to 20: 21, on continued strong volume (average or higher). Stop: 19.50. Break of resistance: Over 24.15 on continued strong volume. Stop: 22.46
POSITION: Stock and/or November or January $20 calls to buy (JUX KD or AD).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/jnpr.html
JDSU (Jds Uniphase--$8.24; +0.12; optionable (UQD): Telecom Equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jdsu.html
STATUS: Broke out of a cup/saucer with handle October 10, and is testing the breakout as it pulls back to support, the 50 day MVA (8.13). JDSU saw some selling yesterday, but volume dropped back below average today (27 million; avg. 28.3 million) and showed a tight doji above the support. The doji suggests at the least a hold of this support, and after some possible consolidation, we are looking for JDSU to break higher, clearing the breakout high of 9.45. Buying looks good. Time to head back up! Initial target: 12-13
BUY POINT: 9.50, on volume of 28.5 million or better. Stop: 8
POSITION: Stock and/or December $5 calls to buy (UQD LA).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/jdsu.html
Another new stock:
MGAM (Multimedia Games--$20.70; -0.10; no options): Leisure
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mgam.html
STATUS: In a cup/double bottom with handle (the second dip was in the aftermath of the WTC tragedy), and pulling back in the handle on overall low volume. The stock showed a tight doji and a volume spike Wednesday, holding above support at 20, following up today with another small pullback. Volume fell resoundingly back below average on the move, good action (48,600; avg. 159,000). Looking for a move back up and breakout over the handle high 21.05. MGAM has strong money flow and good buying, with relative strength ahead of price, a bullish sign. Target: 25
BUY POINT: 21.18, on volume of 239,000. Stop: 19.70 (just below the 10 day MVA, 19.89). A buy on the breakout up to 22.24
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mgam.html
Update:
ROST (Ross Stores--$30.07; -0.24; optionable (REQ): Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rost.html
STATUS: Pulling back on steadily decreasing volume in a pattern that resembles an ascending wedge, formed after a strong breakout from a lateral pattern in July and August. Price is holding immediately above the 10 day MVA (where it closed today), and at lower support, the 18 day MVA (29.74). We really like the low volume of the last 2 days, down Thursday to 630,300 (avg. 1.3 million). Looking for a strong move back up after a hold at the current support. ROST shows huge money flow and buying. Target: 39
BUY POINT: 32.13 on volume in the range of 1.8 million. Stop: 30. A buy on the breakout up to 34.
POSITION: Stock and/or November $25 calls to buy (REQ KE).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rost.html
AHMH
|mktdly|mktss|Pivot=18.30 Wedge Tgt vol=1.8M Tgt $=39 Stop=30 Buy on breakout to 34
THE PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: Upon confirmation of last week's reversal, we will be picking the best of the newest leading stocks for infusion into the portfolio.
New Leaders: ESRX, ACS, NVDA, DGX, FRX.
Previous Leaders: VRSN
VRSN: Held at the 18 and 50 day MVAs.
ACS: Pulling back as needed.
NVDA: Needs some consolidation, but we will look for it to move over 45 in time.
VRSN: Held above the 10 day MVA for a slightly bounce. Volume was below average. On a move up, the 200 day MVA at 53 can pose resistance.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: THQI, KG. Upon confirmation of last week's reversal, we will be picking the best of the stronger, rising stocks for infusion into the portfolio. Needless to say, this bunch was pummeled by this market.
THQI: Looks super, moving up on big volume as the company reported that it beat earnings estimates. Looks like it is heading up!
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: New portfolio as selected by the subscribers. Some of these stocks are still struggling to move higher in their bases, and will likely continue to trade in close ranges just like the market. We'll be ready to catch them when they are ready to move. The new list: BRCM, CHKP, AMAT, JNJ, MSFT, AOL, HGSI, BUD, PXLW.
Old members: BRCM, CHKP, CSCO, EMLX, IDTI, INTC, JDSU, MVSN, NT, PWER, SUNW, VTSS
AOL: Trying to hold off on more selling.
BRCM: Held the 10 day MVA after yesterday's strong selling. Below the 50 day MVA, but we are looking for it to move up.
CHKP: Just broke the 50 day MVA on strong volume. Want to see it hold support there.
HGSI: Has not been able to take out the 50 day MVA, and sold back to the 18 day MVA from there.
MSFT (Microsoft--$56.75; +0.72; optionable (MSQ): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/msft.html
STATUS: A jewel emerges. MSFT has formed an ascending wedge just under its 50 day MVA (58.04). Volume has been trying to drop off, but has switched between above and below average levels since the first of the month. The pattern is clear, however, and after yesterday's selling and today's hold at support (the 18 day MVA, 55.97), we are looking for a breakout. Today's volume was up to 39.2 million (avg. 34 million). The company's earnings beat expectations. Money flow and buying improving. Initial target: 71
BUY POINT: 59.43 on minimum breakout volume of 46 million. Stop: 57.50
POSITION: Stock and/or November or January $50 calls to buy (MSQ KJ or AJ).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/msft.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
us stock market
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