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stock ticker, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: FIC; NGAS; NTGR; SONC
Tuesday night play results:
CASY: Continued higher on above average volume, but traded all over the map.
CNVR: Volume fell back below average as CNVR stalled a bit.
DESC: Backed off after the strong move Tuesday. Good pause before continuing.
PDE: Solid volume as PDE moves higher.
Upside:
Play Date: 09/28/2005
TRCA (Tercica--$11.20; +0.15; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trca.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A new issue in March 2004, TRCA broke out from a 9 month cup base in late July, gapping higher on strong volume and running to 12.77. It then fell into the current test, dropping to the 18 day EMA (11.08) where it moved laterally the past two weeks. Wednesday it reached down to the 50 day EMA (10.36) intraday and then rebounded to post a modest gain and holding the 18 day EMA. The higher, above average volume on the move shows buyers jumped in as it sold down and they drove it back up. Strong money flow is leading the way higher. This move filled the gap and looks like the last shakeout before it resumes the breakout move. Love these first bases on new issues.
Volume: 534.3K Avg Volume: 405K
BUY POINT: $11.42 Volume=608K Target=$13.78 Stop=$10.71
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/trca.html
Play Date: 09/28/2005
WGII (Washington Group--$52.71; +0.36; optionable): Design, engineering, construction management, and environmental remediation services to private and public entities. Right up the alley for disaster recovery.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wgii.html
After Hours: $52.70
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A nice 8 week base has formed after WGII hit a new all-time high in early August. This base is consolidating that move, setting up the next breakout where there is no overhead supply to push it back. Strong money flow has started to jump higher already even as the stocks works laterally this week; a stock usually follows the money. Volume jumped Wednesday as well as WGII reached down to the 50 day SMA (51.98) on the low and rallied back for a gain; buyers moved in as the stock sold and then recovered. Nice pattern, nice rest, and now ready to make the next breakout higher.
Volume: 499.858K Avg Volume: 231.569K
BUY POINT: $52.97 Volume=350K Target=$60.95 Stop=$51.48
POSITION: QUG CJ - Mar. $50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wgii.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/28/2005
XLY (Consumer Discretionary Spyder--$31.95; -0.29; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xly.html
STATUS: Put. The consumer still has to eat and drink, but with gasoline prices high and getting higher even after a long stint the discretionary dollars are the ones that are diverted into the gas tank or are held back for fear of worse times ahead. XLY formed a head and shoulders spanning June to early September. It broke down two weeks back, then rebounded to the 10 day EMA (32.40). It stalled there and Wednesday was falling on a big volume surge. Ripe to move lower, and does not have to fall too far to give us a nice gain. A move to the target lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 2.1M Avg Volume: 975.552K
BUY POINT: $31.89 Volume=1M Target=$30.99 Stop=$32.08
POSITION: XLY WF - Nov. $32p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/xly.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, CELG, BLUDE, BR, COH, HW, PSYS, RTSX, STN
AAPL: Sold off on Dell's announcement of its new line of high end computers and televisions. Maybe these computers will be better made than the usual rather low quality computers Dell puts out. Don't get me wrong, the laptops work fine if you don't move them. We know, we have had many in the office and have had many break on us. That is why we switched brands and have had better luck.
BLUDE: Continues its recovery, moving toward the 200 day SMA at 29.
COH: Retail is not doing well. No surprise given the continued high price of energy.
HW: Looks like another downside run is coming after failing at the 50 day EMA rebound.
PSYS: Setting up for the next move higher as it pinches off above the 10 day EMA.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Downside:
WTW: Falling under its own weight, breaking lower on rising above average volume Wednesday after a lateral move last week. It broke through the 50 day EMA, tried to hold up with a lateral move, and then started lower. A good downside play; kind of in between the $55 and $50 strike put options at this juncture, and that makes it harder to make the math work on the return you get versus the drop required to get that return.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock ticker
stock recommendation
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