|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good Movers: BRL; CMTL; DVA; ESRX; RESP; SNDK
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 10/04/2005
OPTN (Option Care--$14.52; -0.13; optionable): Home health care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/optn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. OPTN broke higher in September with a strong volume surge, breaking out of a 23 week flat base that formed using the 200 day SMA (13.17) as support. Good run from January to April, split, then fell into this base. Big reach lower to the 18 day EMA intraday (14.13) and rebound to hold the 10 day EMA (14.37) on rising, above average volume. Nice test, setting up for a run to a new all-time high.
Volume: 410.76K Avg Volume: 347.485K
BUY POINT: $14.95 Volume=521K Target=$17.95 Stop=$14.11
POSITION: UOC AC - Jan. $15c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/optn.html
Play Date: 10/04/2005
PPL (PPL Corp.--$32.88; -0.43; optionable): Electric utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppl.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Nice volume Monday as PPL broke higher, knocking at the breakout from its 9 week base. Tuesday volume slipped and so did PPL, coming back into the base as the market sold. Nice pattern that used the 50 day EMA (31.66) as support, making a couple of higher lows below a constant top near 33. Outstanding 4 to 0 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows all buying. After this pullback in the market selling we are going to be ready for the rebound on rising trade to move in.
Volume: 1.664M Avg Volume: 1.251M
BUY POINT: $33.24 Volume=1.9M Target=$37.95 Stop=$32.15
POSITION: PPL AZ - Jan. $32.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ppl.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AGN: Forecast 10-26-05. Recovered the 50 day EMA on stronger, above average volume.
APA: Tentatively set for 10-27-05 before the open
APC: Forecast 10-27-05 before the open
ATW: Forecast 10-27-05
BRO: Forecast 10-26-05
CDIS: Forecast 10-5-05. Down to the 18 day EMA the day before the forecast. Lower trade so looking for it to hold the 18 day and give us another break higher.
CELG: Forecast early December. Have not been able to pinpoint the date yet.
CERN: Forecast 10-20-05
CETV: Forecast 10-11-05
CLF: Forecast 11-8-05
GD: Forecast 10-19-05 before the open
GENZ: Forecast 10-18-05 before the open
GVA: Forecast in October.
GYI: Forecast 10-20-05
IMDC: Forecast 11-7-05
ISRG: Forecast 10-25-05
JOYG: Forecast 12-21-05 before the open
KMG: Forecast 10-26-05
LM: Forecast 10-25-05 before the open
LSS: Wildcard forecast 10-18-05
MRVL: Forecast 11-17-05 after the close
RS: Forecast 10-20-05.
WFMI: Forecast early November.
WFT: Forecast 10-27-05
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/04/2005
BOL (Bausch & Lomb--$80.88; +0.2; optionable): Medical instruments. Forecast 10-26-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Long time since its last split, a 2:1 on 4-30-91 at $80.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bol.html
STATUS: Double bottom. BOL has bounced off the second leg of its base, holding above the 200 day SMA (75.41) on the move. Nice 12 week base has formed after peaking in early July, but it is likely to form a handle here as the move up has lost a bit of steam and it has basically moved laterally for the past four sessions; already putting in time in the handle. Excellent 5 to 1 accumulation in the pattern shows plenty of buying and BOL is showing strong money flow as well. Expecting it to move laterally for a couple more sessions, but want to be ready when volume ratchets back up and BOL makes its break higher.
Volume: 352.8K Avg Volume: 498.478K
BUY POINT: $81.35 Volume=748K Target=$92.95 Stop=$79.48
POSITION: BOL AP - Jan. $80c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bol.html
Play Date: 10/04/2005
SIE (Sierra Health Services--$70.76; -0.96; optionable): Health care plans. Health care plans. Forecast to announce a split on 10-24-05 after the close
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split in May 1998 near $40.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sie.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong volume the past two weeks as SIE jumped off the 200 day SMA (63.90). It eased back last week to the 50 day EMA (67.66), working on the handle to the 12 week base. Strong volume Monday shot it higher once more before easing back on lower, average volume Tuesday. Looking for another solid volume session as SIE rebounds toward an all-time high to start the play.
Volume: 421.4K Avg Volume: 423.054K
BUY POINT: $72.35 Volume=635K Target=$83.25 Stop=$69.95
POSITION: SIE CN - Mar. $70c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sie.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 09/17/2005
EXP (Eagle Materials--$120.01; -3.89; optionable): Cement. Forecast to announce a stock split 11-2-2005.
BACKGROUND: No splits in EXP's history, but others in the sector have been announcing.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exp.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher Monday on solid volume, continuing the Friday move higher. Tuesday it was off its feed, dumping back to the 10 day EMA (119.24). Volume was lower, coming in well below average. That tells us EXP was caught up in the selling binge Tuesday afternoon. Looking for it to rebound from here (it did not violate the base) on above average volume. That will show us it is still ready to move higher. To recap: EXP broke out from a 19 week base in May and rallied up the 18 day EMA (117.68) as is typical with a solid breakout. After that run it tested back in August with the market, bouncing off the 50 day EMA (111.23) at the end of the month as it continued its breakout move. This is typical action. Now that it has tested the 50 day EMA it has set up the next move higher. After the first run off the 50 day it has spent the past two weeks moving laterally below 120, making higher lows and showing strong volume.
Volume: 155.6K Avg Volume: 179.783K
BUY POINT: New: $121.75 (orig. $120.95) Volume=234K Target=$134.95 Stop=$116.15
POSITION: EXP AD - Jan. $120c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/exp.html
Play Date: 09/27/2005
IMDC (Inamed--$77.5; +1.4; optionable): Medical appliances. Forecast to announce a split 11-7-05
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 11-4-03 at $87.60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imdc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Good price move Tuesday off of the 10 day EMA (75.73), but could not muster even average volume on the move. Good test, nice rebound, but need to see more trade to show us the big money is still serious after that big gap higher in mid-September. To recap: IMDC gapped higher mid-September on strong trade when it received FDA approval for its gel filled silicon breast implants. That blasted it out from an 8 month cup with handle base. It has spent the past week testing that move, coming back to the 10 day EMA on lower volume. Solid 7 to 5 accumulation in the base shows net buying. Relative strength broke out on the price breakout, a corroboration of the breakout move. Now that it has tested back to this breakout support level we are looking for IMDC to continue higher. That will be our entry point.
Volume: 519.886K Avg Volume: 532.812K
BUY POINT: New: $77.72 (orig $76.25) Volume=985K Target=$87.95 Stop=$74.05
POSITION: UZI AO - Jan. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/imdc.html
Play Date: 09/27/2005
ISRG (Intuitive Surgical--$75.15; +1.25; optionable): Medical appliances. Forecast to announce a split 10-25-05
BACKGROUND: No splits in ISRG's history. A wildcard, but a solid leader.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isrg.html
After Hours: $75.23
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Good volume Tuesday as ISRG jumped off the 10 day EMA (73.17), rallying to 77.05 on the intraday high. It gave more than half of the move back, but looks very good here for a breakout and run. Just looking for some continued solid trade as ISRG continues higher. To recap: ISRG broke out from a 5.5 month flat base in late July, rallied to 77, and then spent this month pulling back to the 50 day EMA to test that move. All the while money flow remained strong. Last week ISRG started higher, following the money. Looking to move in and start a position on a continued rally by this market leader.
Volume: 1.114M Avg Volume: 1.02M
BUY POINT: New: $75.65 (orig. $74.85) Volume=1.5M Target=$89.85 Stop=$72.88
POSITION: AXQ AO - Jan. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/isrg.html
Play Date: 10/01/2005
MRVL (Marvell Technology--$45.99; -0.11; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits. Forecast to announce a split 11-17-05 after the close.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html
After Hours: $46.10
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Showed a lot of pop Tuesday, surging to 47.55 on rising average volume. It gave the entire move back by the close as it was caught in the selling whirlpool in the afternoon session. Still like it a lot; it is ready. To recap: MRVL is making its second test of the 50 day EMA (44.66) since the mid-May breakout from a 14 week ascending base. Strong rally up the 18 day EMA (45.42) is how a strong stock moves higher, and then it makes a test of the 50 day MA where it reloads and starts higher. Volume surged back above average Friday as MRVL jumped off of the 50 day EMA. Strong money flow is leading higher. A leader, and after this test of solid support it is ready to go again.
Volume: 3.47M Avg Volume: 3.294M
BUY POINT: $46.44 Volume=3.5M Target=$53.45 Stop=$44.42
POSITION: UVM AI - Jan. $45c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrvl.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/01/2005
STJ (St. Jude Medical--$46.85; +0.46; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume moved up to average Tuesday as STJ spurted higher to 47.45 but as with most stocks it could not hold all of the move. Still looks very nice, ready to make the breakout. To recap: Split last November and then formed a 6 month cup with handle that broke out in late June. It rallied to 48 and then fell into the current 10 week pattern that has made a series of higher lows above the 50 day EMA (45.62) while it works on a constant top at 48. Like these base on base patterns; leaders tend to form them when the market cannot make a lot of headway and they really shake out the sellers. Excellent pattern; a top rated stock in terms of earnings and revenues compliment the pattern nicely. Being patient and letting it complete the base.
Volume: 1.672M Avg Volume: 2.153M
BUY POINT: $47.37 Volume=2.5M Target=$54.45 Stop=$46.05
POSITION: STJ AI - Jan. $45c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/stj.html
Play Date: 10/01/2005
WIRE (Encore Wire--$16.34; +0.08; optionable): Industrial electrical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wire.html
After Hours: $16.39
STATUS: Flying plateau. Volume moved above average Tuesday as WIRE showed a doji once more over the 10 day EMA (16.11). This continues the very tight lateral move over that support as WIRE sets up the next leg higher. To recap: WIRE split in August 2004 and did basically nothing until May when it started off its low and rallied well. It fell into a handle in August and early September to its 11 month cup with handle base. It then broke out on strong volume two weeks back. It has moved laterally since in a very tight, narrow range as the 10 day EMA rose to meet it. That is often the catalyst for the next run higher, i.e. when the 10 day EMA kisses the stock and sends it back up. Strong volume Thursday as WIRE showed a tight doji; that was a 'get ready' spike, telling us to be ready for the next move higher. Strong money flow is out in front and accumulation during the past 8 weeks is a solid 5 to 0 (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), showing more than enough buying to push the stock higher in a continued breakout run.
Volume: 131.359K Avg Volume: 115.018K
BUY POINT: $16.42 Volume=170K Target=$19.75 Stop=$15.78
POSITION: EJO BC - Feb. $15c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wire.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
