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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 10/06/2005
GPN (Global Payments--$79; +0.43; optionable): Global payment systems. Splits 2:1 on 10-31-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. GPN has made us some fine money already, and after this market selling it has come back toward the 10 day EMA (77.39) to test the strong September surge higher on upside earnings guidance. Thursday strong volume surged back above average once more as GPN posted a modest gain, too strong to even fall back to the 10 day EMA. Money flow remains strong and out in front of the stock, and relative strength continues to rally ahead of price. Looking to move in as GPN continues the pre-split run.
Volume: 786.9K Avg Volume: 385.664K
BUY POINT: $79.48 Volume=475K Target=$89.45 Stop=$77.12
POSITION: GPN BP - Feb. $80c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gpn.html
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 10/06/2005
CLE (Claires Stores--$25.59; +0.51; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cle.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. It has been awhile since CLE split (December 2003), but it has set up a really nice 9 week base sporting solid 4 to 2 accumulation and surging money flow. This is the tail end of a larger 11 month pattern; the larger pattern with this sweet smaller base is a good way to shakeout the last sellers. Strong volume the past week, but unlike the market, CLE was rallying. Big surge to 26.29 on the Thursday high before falling back for a nice though more modest gain. Solid retail sales were pushing it Thursday. If it can continue the move and make the breakout, that shows it is not just a September sales move.
Volume: 1.819M Avg Volume: 465.167K
BUY POINT: $25.82 Volume=550K Target=$30.98 Stop=$24.55
POSITION: CLE BE - Feb. $25c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cle.html
Play Date: 10/06/2005
FLO (Flowers Foods--$27.16; +0.6; optionable): Bakery products in the US
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. While the market struggled through another down session FLO held near support at the 10 day EMA (26.53) and posted a gain on rising, above average volume. It is preparing for a breakout from its short 7 week pattern that formed over the 50 day EMA (25.74). Split in early July and continued the run into mid-August before needing this breather. Strong 3 to 1 accumulation shows plenty of buying. Strong money flow as well is surging higher. Relative strength broke out Thursday ahead of the price, a bullish indication that the stock will follow.
Volume: 294.4K Avg Volume: 226.102K
BUY POINT: $27.88 Volume=339K Target=$31.98 Stop=$26.41
POSITION: FWW AW - Jan. $26.625c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flo.html
Play Date: 10/06/2005
SPIL (Siliconware Precision--$5.13; +0.06; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spil.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. As the market sold off this week, SPIL eased back to the 10 day EMA (5.08) on lower, below average volume. This is forming a nice handle to the stock's 9 week base that formed as the handle to a much larger 20 month cup with handle base. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the current base shows plenty of buying to support the stock and send it higher. Solid money flow is leading higher. A nice base setting up the breakout to a 4 year high.
Volume: 244.208K Avg Volume: 828.842K
BUY POINT: $5.34 Volume=1.2M Target=$6.45 Stop=$4.97
POSITION: QSP CA - Mar. $5c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/spil.html
Play Date: 10/06/2005
TEVA (Teva Pharmaceutical--$34.39; -0.27; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teva.html
After Hours: $34.55
STATUS: Breakout test. We were watching TEVA form up and then watched it make the breakout from its 4 month ascending triangle early this month, rallying on strong volume. Just as well we were only watching; it came back the past two sessions to test the move, tapping the 10 day EMA (34.08) on the intraday low and then rebounding for a modest, lower volume loss. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation has set up the breakout move. Money flow is strong as well, matching the accumulation. Relative strength broke out on the move, a good corroboration of the strong pattern and breakout. We love to enter on the breakout test; if the stock rebounds on strong volume that shows us the big money is moving back in. Solid pattern, nice test.
Volume: 3.714M Avg Volume: 4.587M
BUY POINT: $34.85 Volume=5M Target=$40.65 Stop=$33.95
POSITION: TVQ AZ - Jan. $32.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/teva.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AGN: Forecast 10-26-05. Diving back down below the 50 day EMA.
APA: Tentatively set for 10-27-05 before the open. Pretty horrific drop.
APC: Forecast 10-27-05 before the open. Ditto.
ATW: Forecast 10-27-05. And yet another.
BRO: Forecast 10-26-05
CDIS: Forecast 10-5-05. Held some support at 55 and bounced modestly
CELG: Forecast early December. Have been unable to pinpoint the date.
CERN: Forecast 10-20-05
CETV: Forecast 10-11-05. Diving toward the 200 day SMA.
CLF: Forecast 11-8-05
GD: Forecast 10-19-05 before the open
GENZ: Forecast 10-18-05 before the open. Diving below the 50 day EMA.
GVA: Forecast in October.
GYI: Forecast 10-20-05
IMDC: Forecast 11-7-05
ISRG: Forecast 10-25-05
JOYG: Forecast 12-21-05 before the open. Downgraded by LM and it gapped sharply lower.
KMG: Forecast 10-26-05. Another oil stock opening the bomb bay doors.
LM: Forecast 10-25-05 before the open
LSS: Wildcard forecast 10-18-05. Spiraling lower.
MRVL: Forecast 11-17-05 after the close
RS: Forecast 10-20-05.
WFMI: Forecast early November.
WFT: Forecast 10-27-05
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/06/2005
HAR (Harman Intl.--$100.82; -0.52; optionable): High end electronics. Tentatively forecast to announce a split 10-12-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 10/1/03 at $98.40. Prior to that it announced a 2:1 split on 8-16-2000 at 64.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/har.html
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Taking another run at HAR as it continues its test of the 200 day SMA (96.00) after blasting through that level in mid-August. After a month-long lateral move hugging the 200 day SMA it jumped higher on above average volume to end September. During the recent market selling HAR sold back on low volume, holding the 18 day EMA (99.89) and showing a nice doji with tail at that level Thursday. Money flow continues to surge as HAR sets up for the next rally. HAR is working on a 12 month cup base, but even without a breakout from the base it can give us a very nice gain. Has set up well for the continued move higher and volume jumped back above average Thursday as HAR showed this doji. Want to see the volume continue as HAR makes the break higher.
Volume: 795.1K Avg Volume: 722.376K
BUY POINT: $103.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$119.55 Stop=$99.77
POSITION: HAR AA - Jan. $105c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/har.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/04/2005
OPTN (Option Care--$14.37; -0.05; optionable): Home health care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/optn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Another doji Thursday, tapping the 18 day EMA (14.18) on the low and rebounding for a flat close. It is continuing its pattern, holding the near support even as the overall market sells off. Still ready to make the break higher from a nice pattern. To recap: OPTN broke higher in September with a strong volume surge, breaking out of a 23 week flat base that formed using the 200 day SMA (13.20) as support. Good run from January to April, split, then fell into this base. Big reach lower to the 18 day EMA intraday and rebound to hold the 10 day EMA on rising, above average volume. Nice test, setting up for a run to a new all-time high.
Volume: 312.997K Avg Volume: 345.759K
BUY POINT: $14.95 Volume=521K Target=$17.95 Stop=$14.11
POSITION: UOC AC - Jan. $15c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/optn.html
Play Date: 10/01/2005
WIRE (Encore Wire--$16.38; -0.04; optionable): Industrial electrical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wire.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Another hammer doji on strong, above average volume Thursday as WIRE continues to flirt with the next break higher. Teasing but not yet making the breakaway move. To recap: WIRE split in August 2004 and did basically nothing until May when it started off its low and rallied well. It fell into a handle in August and early September to its 11 month cup with handle base. It then broke out on strong volume two weeks back. It has moved laterally since in a very tight, narrow range as the 10 day EMA rose to meet it. That is often the catalyst for the next run higher, i.e. when the 10 day EMA kisses the stock and sends it back up. Strong volume spike last week and then again this week as WIRES shows us 'get ready' spikes, telling us to be ready for the next move higher. Strong money flow is out in front and accumulation during the past 8 weeks is a solid 5 to 0 (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), showing more than enough buying to push the stock higher in a continued breakout run.
Volume: 201.147K Avg Volume: 117.682K
BUY POINT: $16.42 Volume=170K Target=$19.75 Stop=$15.78
POSITION: EJO BC - Feb. $15c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wire.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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