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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CRXL; GPN; XLY
Weekend play results:
BRCM: Falling to fully test the 50 day EMA. Will look at picking it off if it can hold and rebound.
GG: Started higher but could not attract any volume.
JEF: Low volume pullback to the 10 day EMA.
PFWD: Low volume test of the 10 day EMA.
UNH: And yet another low volume test of the 10 day EMA.
MSCC: Fell through the 50 day EMA on strong volume.
Upside:
Play Date: 10/10/2005
BEAV (BE Aerospace--$17.4; -0.19; optionable): Commercial aircraft and business jet interior products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/beav.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. You could call this a double bottom with handle as well, but either way it is a nice 9 week base looking for a 4 year high as it continues higher. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows solid buying in the base, preparing BEAV for the breakout. Strong surge last week on volume broke it higher, and it is now forming a nice low volume handle. Strong money flow is moving higher and relative strength broke out on the move. Solid leader with great sales, great revenues, and a great technical pattern.
Volume: 532.218K Avg Volume: 633.498K
BUY POINT: $18.05 Volume=950K Target=$21.68 Stop=$16.85
POSITION: BQV AW - Jan. $17.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/beav.html
Play Date: 10/10/2005
CHS (Chicos Fas--$37.64; -0.14; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice, classic handle is forming to a 9 week double bottom. Used the 200 day SMA (31.45) on the right leg as support, undercutting the left leg from the August low. Positive 4:3 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers. Quiet pattern, ignored by the market. It is quietly setting up for a breakout to a new all-time high. Perennial leader that has set up for the next move.
Volume: 1.139M Avg Volume: 1.915M
BUY POINT: $38.75 Volume=2.9M Target=$46.45 Stop=$36.88
POSITION: CHS BG - Feb. $35c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chs.html
Play Date: 10/10/2005
IVIL (Ivillage--$7.20; -0.03; optionable): Online and offline media-based properties for women
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ivil.html
After Hours: $7.20
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Forming a handle to a 19 month base sporting solid 16 to 14 accumulation. Long base, positive buying, setting up for the breakout. Strong money flow is leading higher. Strong volume Monday as IVIL rallied higher to 7.48 and then faded to close nearly flat. Strong sales and earnings. Looking for a run back up to the highs in the base to give us a nice gain; if it goes further, all the better.
Volume: 1.064M Avg Volume: 478.238K
BUY POINT: $7.55 Volume=717K Target=$9.11 Stop=$7.11
POSITION: JUR AU - Jan. $7.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ivil.html
Play Date: 10/10/2005
SMSC (Standard Microsystems--$28.12; -0.42; no options): PC networking and communication products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smsc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. SMSC blasted out of a 9.5 month base in mid-September with a big gap on strong volume. Rallied to 30 on the run and then used the market selling to make a low volume pullback to near support at the 18 day EMA (28.14). Excellent money flow combines with positive accumulation to set up the breakout and keep the stock running. Excellent relative strength; really like the way it held near support on low volume in the heavy selling. Want to see volume jump back up as SMSC continues the breakout move.
Volume: 274.791K Avg Volume: 195.032K
BUY POINT: $29.42 Volume=293K Target=$35.32 Stop=$28.05
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/smsc.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/10/2005
TRI (Triad Hospitals--$43.55; +0.4; optionable): Hospitals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tri.html
STATUS: Put. TRI has trended lower below the 10 day EMA (44.07) since peaking in June and gapping lower through the 50 day EMA (46.55) in July. After selling hard Thursday, TRI has rebounded on lower, below average volume the past two sessions, tapping at the 10 day EMA on the Monday high before fading back. That low volume rebound shows few buyers willing to commit to the stock even after the last run lower. Looking to move in as it turns back down and continues its selling. A move to the target lands us a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 727.2K Avg Volume: 1.064M
BUY POINT: $43.41 Volume=1.1M Target=$41.38 Stop=$44.08
POSITION: TRI WI - Nov. $45p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tri.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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