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us stock market, trading system
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: CRXL; FLSH; NTRI; VAL
Strong plays:
1) BEAV: Super action in a weak market.
2) TSAI: Very solid action in a weak market.
3) SMSC: Excellent test of the breakout. Strong.
4) AKAM: Very nice action.
5) KNOT: Volume is rallying as it tests the breakout waters.
6) MACR: Nice doji at the 18 day EMA after the pullback.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 10/10/2005
BEAV (BE Aerospace--$17.4; -0.19; optionable): Commercial aircraft and business jet interior products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/beav.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. You could call this a double bottom with handle as well, but either way it is a nice 9 week base looking for a 4 year high as it continues higher. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows solid buying in the base, preparing BEAV for the breakout. Strong surge last week on volume broke it higher, and it is now forming a nice low volume handle. Strong money flow is moving higher and relative strength broke out on the move. Solid leader with great sales, great revenues, and a great technical pattern.
Volume: 532.218K Avg Volume: 633.498K
BUY POINT: $18.05 Volume=950K Target=$21.68 Stop=$16.85
POSITION: BQV AW - Jan. $17.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/beav.html
Play Date: 10/10/2005
SMSC (Standard Microsystems--$28.12; -0.42; no options): PC networking and communication products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smsc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. SMSC blasted out of a 9.5 month base in mid-September with a big gap on strong volume. Rallied to 30 on the run and then used the market selling to make a low volume pullback to near support at the 18 day EMA (28.14). Excellent money flow combines with positive accumulation to set up the breakout and keep the stock running. Excellent relative strength; really like the way it held near support on low volume in the heavy selling. Want to see volume jump back up as SMSC continues the breakout move.
Volume: 274.791K Avg Volume: 195.032K
BUY POINT: $29.42 Volume=293K Target=$35.32 Stop=$28.05
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/smsc.html
Play Date: 10/10/2005
TSAI (Transaction Sys Architects--$27.98; +0.67; optionable): Technical & system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsai.html
After Hours: $27.98
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume surged Monday as TSAI continued its move off of the 50 day EMA (26.81), following its strong money flow higher. Relative strength is breaking out ahead of the stock, a very bullish indication for the stock to follow. Excellent 5 to 1 accumulation in the base shows a lot of buyers wanting to own the stock. Ready for a new 6 year high. Top rated stock in terms of sales, earnings, and pattern.
Volume: 360.138K Avg Volume: 197.692K
BUY POINT: $28.55 Volume=297K Target=$33.65 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: TOU BE - Feb. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tsai.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/10/2005
TRI (Triad Hospitals--$43.55; +0.4; optionable): Hospitals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tri.html
STATUS: Put. TRI has trended lower below the 10 day EMA (44.07) since peaking in June and gapping lower through the 50 day EMA (46.55) in July. After selling hard Thursday, TRI has rebounded on lower, below average volume the past two sessions, tapping at the 10 day EMA on the Monday high before fading back. That low volume rebound shows few buyers willing to commit to the stock even after the last run lower. Looking to move in as it turns back down and continues its selling. A move to the target lands us a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 727.2K Avg Volume: 1.064M
BUY POINT: $43.41 Volume=1.1M Target=$41.38 Stop=$44.08
POSITION: TRI WI - Nov. $45p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tri.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 10/08/2005
AKAM (Akami Technologies--$16.07; +0.02; optionable): Services for the delivery of content and business processes over the internet.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/akam.html
After Hours: $16.02
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Nice doji Monday on continued low, below average volume. Really like the way it is going about its own business. It is ready; just needs the catalyst to send it higher again. To recap: Strong move to end September sent AKAM up to the neckline of its 15 month base. Excellent volume on that move and then in the market selling AKAM eased back toward the 10 day EMA (15.68) on low trade. Strong money flow is leading higher. Relative strength broke out on the late September move. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the last 8 weeks of the base (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows buying continues. After this pullback looking for volume to return as it continues the breakout move.
Volume: 847.551K Avg Volume: 1.505M
BUY POINT: $16.26 Volume=1.9M Target=$19.45 Stop=$15.48
POSITION: UMU AC - Jan. $15c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/akam.html
Play Date: 10/01/2005
BABY (Natus Medical--$12.23; +0.12; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/baby.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher Monday but no volume. It held onto the modest move but needs more trade to really break it higher. To recap: BABY shot out of an 11 week flat base two weeks back on a tremendous volume surge. It carried to 13.46 on the first breakout move and has since come back to test, holding above the 18 day EMA on the close. Strong 5 to 2 accumulation in the flat base (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows solid buying, and money flow has surged ahead of the price. Nice pullback to rest after hitting a new all-time high (a new issue in late 2001), setting up the next move in the breakout run. The first test of a breakout is one of our favorite entry points as it shows buyers ready to come back in even after the stock has made a move higher. That shows plenty of demand. An 'A' rated stock in terms of sales, earnings and pattern.
Volume: 52.093K Avg Volume: 146.527K
BUY POINT: $12.42 Volume=222K Target=$14.95 Stop=$11.75
POSITION: QBU AV - Jan. $12.50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/baby.html
Play Date: 10/01/2005
COSI (Cosi--$9.95; -0.05; optionable): Fast, casual restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cosi.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Microscopic volume Monday as COSI held at resistance in its base. Still ready to go, just needs to show us the move. To recap: COSI continues to hold the 18 day EMA on the lows as it tries for a higher low in its 10 week ascending base. It broke out in early August from a 15 month trading range. Good rally from that breakout and a good base has formed using the 50 day EMA (9.10) as support. Strong 5 to 1 accumulation in the current base shows plenty of buying along with those higher lows. Looking for that volume to jump back up above average as COSI breaks higher and above 10.
Volume: 41.06K Avg Volume: 455.003K
BUY POINT: $10.05 Volume=600K Target=$12.11 Stop=$9.38
POSITION: CQA AB - Jan. $10c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cosi.html
Play Date: 10/08/2005
GG (Goldcorp--$20.28; +0.19; optionable): Gold mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gg.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher but volume did not, and GG gave back most of the move. Still set to make the break higher. To recap: GG is moving laterally the past 3 weeks, holding near the 18 day EMA (19.72) as it tests the September break higher out of a 21 month cup with handle base. Got a bit rocky last week with the market selling, but held up relatively well, keeping the move orderly. Weathering that kind of storm sets it up to continue the breakout move as the market comes around. Gold is doing well in this inflation concerned environment, and GG is a top ranked stock in sales, earnings, and its technical pattern.
Volume: 2.159M Avg Volume: 2.359M
BUY POINT: $20.42 Volume=3.5M Target=$25.55 Stop=$19.48
POSITION: GG AD - Jan. $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gg.html
Play Date: 10/05/2005
INFA (Informatica--$11.94; +0.04; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/infa.html
After Hours: $11.93
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume has faded the past week as INFA ignored the selling and held near support at the 18 day EMA (11.66). Nice short handle to the short cup with handle. Looks ready but needs a catalyst. To recap: INFA has formed a small cup with handle that is acting as the handle to a larger 21 month base. The small base shows solid 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), using the 50 day EMA (11.15) as support. Easing back, tapping at and holding the 18 day EMA on the lows. Strong money flow. Relative strength is breaking out ahead of the stock; very bullish. Another stock going about its own business as the market sold off.
Volume: 798.77K Avg Volume: 1.287M
BUY POINT: $12.05 Volume=1.5M Target=$13.98 Stop=$11.55
POSITION: UYF CB - Mar. $10c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/infa.html
Play Date: 10/08/2005
KNOT (The Knot--$10.99; -0.13; no options): Online and offline wedding media and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/knot.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume jumped Monday as KNOT jumped higher to 11.97 on the high. Gave it back as the market could not hold its move. Still looks solid. To recap: Broke out from a 19 week cup with handle in late August and has rallied up the 18 day EMA (10.91) since then. In the selling last week it dropped to the 50 day EMA (9.89) on stronger, above average volume. Friday it jumped back up with a strong price move, but volume fell off the table, coming in well below average. Strong 7 to 4 accumulation in the base set KNOT up for the breakout. Strong money flow backs up the accumulation. Relative strength broke out as well on the move, a very good indication for the stock's continued run. Want to see more volume as it continues the move through the buy point.
Volume: 206.54K Avg Volume: 97.747K
BUY POINT: $11.55 Volume=147K Target=$13.88 Stop=$10.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/knot.html
Play Date: 10/08/2005
LRCX (Lam Research--$30.29; -0.03; optionable): Semiconductor equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lrcx.html
After Hours: $30.27
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Reached below the 50 day EMA (30.04) Monday on the XLNX news, but then rebounded to hold the 18 day EMA (30.23) on the close as volume jumped. That shows buyers jumped back in as it fell back. The move holds the pattern and sets the stage for the breakout. To recap: LRCX sold back as well with the market last week, but it was not a freefall as with many stocks. It made an orderly pullback to the 50 day EMA (30.04), attempting another higher low in its 28 week base that has used the 200 day SMA (28.87) on the lows. Solid 8 to 6 accumulation shows net buying, setting up the breakout move. Looking for a higher low here and a volume move through the recent highs in early October as our entry point for starters. After a strong breakout we will also look for positions on a successful test.
Volume: 3.055M Avg Volume: 2.516M
BUY POINT: $31.44 Volume=3.8M Target=$36.89 Stop=$29.81
POSITION: LMQ AF - Jan. $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lrcx.html
Play Date: 10/03/2005
MACR (Macromedia--$39.74; -0.01; optionable): Multimedia and graphics software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/macr.html
After Hours: $39.73
STATUS: Double bottom. Nice action continues with a hammer doji over the 18 day EMA (39.36) as MACR rallied but could not hold the move into the close. Used the market selling to test and set up the rebound. Getting ready. To recap: Nice 17 week base has set up using the 200 day SMA (36.87) as support on the lows in August and September. Strong 6 to 1 accumulation in the pattern shows basically all buying as MACR consolidated a strong 8 month run. Money flow is strong, a good corroboration of the accumulation.
Volume: 507.935K Avg Volume: 839.518K
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $40.57; Breakout: $42.02 Volume=1.3M Target=$49.95 Stop=$40.21
POSITION: MRQ BH - Feb. $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/macr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trading system
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