|
|
us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
Full report issues Wednesday.
THE PLAYS
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 10/11/2005
AME (Ametek--$42.83; 0; optionable): Industrial electrical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ame.html
STATUS: Breakout test. AME blasted higher in late August and early September, moving out of a 12 week double bottom with handle base. Solid pattern that formed using the 200 day SMA (39.33) as support for the two legs. Nice run in 2003 and 2004, needing a breather to consolidate the move. A 16 week base from March to June could not yield a strong breakout. It then fell into the current base, sporting solid 3:1 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) and strong money flow. Nice price breakout and relative strength moved with it, showing us AME's strength in a down market. It used the recent selling as a test of its breakout; like it when a stock shows strength even in overall market weakness. Nice doji on the candlestick Tuesday, and after a pullback that can signal the move back up is ready to begin.
Volume: 0 Avg Volume: 316.755K
BUY POINT: $43.65 Volume=475K Target=$50.32 Stop=$42.05
POSITION: AME CH - Mar. $40c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ame.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/11/2005
XLE (Spdr Energy Sector--$49.95; +1.17; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xle.html
After Hours: $50.04
STATUS: Put. Oil stocks may be ready to continue basing, but that does not mean they won't continue to have ups and downs. XLE peaked at the end of Q3 and dove lower to start October. Strong volume as energy was sold off hard. It bottomed Thursday and bounced back to the 50 day EMA (50.37), tapping at that level on the Tuesday high. Volume has been lower o n the bounce than the selling, showing less enthusiasm as it moves up for the test. We are looking for a modest drop to take it back near the recent low. A move to the target lands us a 43%ish gain.
Volume: 4.7K Avg Volume: 14.918M
BUY POINT: $49.78 Volume=18M Target=$47.85 Stop=$50.48
POSITION: XBT WX - Nov. $50p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xle.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 10/08/2005
AKAM (Akami Technologies--$15.92; -0.15; optionable): Services for the delivery of content and business processes over the internet.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/akam.html
After Hours: $15.92
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still in the nice test, holding the 10 day EMA (15.73) on the Tuesday low and rebounding to cut the losses on rising, above average volume. Solid money flow continues. Still looks super. To recap: Strong move to end September sent AKAM up to the neckline of its 15 month base. Excellent volume on that move and then in the market selling AKAM eased back toward the 10 day EMA on low trade. Strong money flow is leading higher. Relative strength broke out on the late September move. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the last 8 weeks of the base (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows buying continues. After this pullback looking for volume to return as it continues the breakout move.
Volume: 1.725M Avg Volume: 1.507M
BUY POINT: $16.26 Volume=1.9M Target=$19.45 Stop=$15.48
POSITION: UMU AC - Jan. $15c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/akam.html
Play Date: 10/05/2005
INFA (Informatica--$11.93; -0.01; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/infa.html
After Hours: $11.94
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume edged up though was still below average Tuesday as INFA showed a hammer doji over the 10 day EMA (11.80). Looks super, holding up very well as the market sells. To recap: INFA has formed a small cup with handle that is acting as the handle to a larger 21 month base. The small base shows solid 3 to 0 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), using the 50 day EMA (11.21) as support. Easing back, tapping at and holding the 18 day EMA on the lows. Strong money flow. Relative strength is breaking out ahead of the stock; very bullish. Another stock going about its own business as the market sold off.
Volume: 1.065M Avg Volume: 1.289M
BUY POINT: $12.05 Volume=1.5M Target=$13.98 Stop=$11.55
POSITION: UYF CB - Mar. $10c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/infa.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
The following link is to a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow subscribers to sort the data for your personal investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet!
http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
You will need your password. If you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AKAM 10/08 Test BO 15.92 -0.15 16.26 19.45 1.7M 1.9M 15.48
Buy Not Hit.
AQNT 09/25 Test BO 18.46 -0.14 20.21 24.25 701K 1.6M 19.21
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 19.04 at the intraday high, but gave it back holding just under the simple 50 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Stock needs to hold here.
BABY 10/01 Test BO 12.06 -0.17 12.42 14.95 100K 222K 11.75
Buy Not Hit. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back holding just under the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Still in the pattern.
BEAV 10/10 Cup hdl 17.22 -0.18 18.05 21.68 630K 950K 16.85
Buy Not Hit. Pullback on slightly above average volume. Still forming the handle.
CDIS 09/07 Test 50 58.99 +0.75 61.05 69.95 391K 1.3M 57.88
Current.
CMTL 09/25 Test BO 40.89 +0.06 40.44 47.95 344K 650K 40.32
Current. Pullback tapping 40.50 at the intraday low and rallied back holding the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Should be ready to bounce from here.
COSI 10/01 Asc Bse 9.88 -0.07 10.05 12.11 138K 600K 9.38
Buy Not Issued.
CRXL 09/07 DB hdl 29.2 -0.75 23.85 28.57 357K 305K 28.45
Current. Gapped down at the open and continued to move down on much lower, but above average volume. May continue to test back to 28.60.
DCEL 10/03 Flat 6.87 -0.65 7.89 10.42 14M 5.7M 7.34
Buy Not Hit.
DEPO 10/04 Test BO 5.49 -0.35 6.22 7.95 397K 775K 5.87
Buy Not Hit.
DRRX 10/01 Test BO 6.56 +0.18 6.98 8.38 249K 500K 6.49
Buy Not Issued.
EMKR 09/15 Test BO 5.29 -0.25 5.62 6.98 265K 450K 5.67
Current.
EMR 10/06 Test BO 69 -0.34 71.21 81.95 1.1M 1.6M 69.42
Buy Not Hit.
ESLR 09/19 Asc Tri 7.87 -0.28 8.41 10.37 1.3M 1.3M 8.65
Current.
FLSH 10/01 Test 50 28.91 -0.86 30.61 35.98 1.2M 1M 29.15
Current.
GG 10/08 PreAnn 20.1 -0.18 20.42 25.55 2.8M 3.5M 19.48
Buy Not Issued. Pullback on slightly above average volume. May continue to test back to 10 day MVA (20)
GSIC 09/17 Cup hdl 20.81 +0.27 19.57 22.65 546K 439K 18.65
HAE 08/31 Asc Bse 46.55 +0.13 45.22 50.98 302K 215K 47.05
Current. Tapped 47.55 at the intraday high, but gave it back holding just above the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Testing the breakout. May continue to test back to 46.
INFA 10/05 Test 18 11.93 -0.01 12.05 13.98 1.1M 1.5M 11.55
Buy Not Issued.
IOTN 10/05 Cup hdl 10.1 -0.55 10.82 12.98 683K 628K 10.32
Current.
KNOT 10/08 Test 50 11.09 +0.1 11.55 13.88 79K 147K 10.72
Buy Not Issued.
KONG 10/05 Test BO 13.08 -0.08 13.45 16.75 243K 383K 13.11
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back holding the 10 day MVA on rising but below average volume. Still in the pattern.
LRCX 10/08 Asc Tri 30.06 -0.23 31.44 36.89 3.1M 3.8M 29.81
Buy Not Hit.
MACR 10/03 Dbl btm 39 -0.74 40.77 49.95 1M 1.3M 39.05
Buy Not Hit.
NIHD 10/05 Test BO 78.96 +0.18 80.62 93.95 250K 1M 78.32
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji under the 18 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern.
NTRI 09/10 Cup hdl 30.85 -0.9 23.87 28.55 1M 819K 30.55
Current.
NVDA 10/06 Test 18 31.82 -0.4 33.55 40.45 4.4M 6.5M 31.95
Buy Not Hit. Pullback testing the 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back on rising, but below average volume. May continue to test the 50 day MVA (31.45) before rebounding.
PKE 10/08 Cup hdl 25.3 -0.74 27.05 32.45 60K 165K 25.65
Buy Not Hit.
QSII 09/10 Test BO 65.06 -1.09 71.45 84.48 290K 450K 68.11
RTI 09/25 Test BO 35.84 -0.99 38.98 46.45 320K 325K 38.55
Current.
SMSC 10/10 Test BO 27.37 -0.75 29.42 35.32 124K 293K 28.05
Buy Not Hit. Ease back below the 18 day MVA on very low volume. May continue to test back to 50 day MVA (26.40)
SMTS 10/06 Test BO 27.51 -0.59 28.63 34.24 107K 350K 27.05
Current. Pullback holding the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Testing the breakout. Should be ready to bounce from here.
TRAD 10/04 Rv H&S 9.8 -0.12 10.44 12.62 157K 300K 9.87
Buy Not Hit. Pullback tapping 9.61 at the intraday low and rallied back holding the 18 day MVA on average volume. Still in the pattern.
TSAI 10/10 Asc Bse 28.37 +0.39 28.55 33.65 412K 297K 27.05
Buy Not Issued.
UNH 10/08 Test BO 55.18 -0.7 56.68 64.95 4.1M 6M 55.55
Buy Not Issued. Pullback holding the 18 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. May test back to 54.51.
VRTX 09/06 Test BO 20.87 -0.42 19.46 23.15 1.2M 1.8M 20.68
Current.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AAP 09/25 Put 38.75 +0.01 38.78 36.65 652K 750K 38.11
Current.
RTH 09/26 Put 91.56 -0.07 91.78 89.22 2.4M 4.5M 91.55
Current. Moving down the 10 day MVA on below average volume. Needs to break through some support at 91.40.
TRI 10/10 Put 43.55 0 43.41 41.38 743K 1.1M 44.08
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday, but could not hold the gain on low volume. Needs to break through support here.
VAL 09/25 Put 21.39 -0.21 21.95 20.85 279K 313K 21.89
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday, but could not hold the gain making a nice move down on low volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock recommendation
|
