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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Tuesday night play results:
AME: Rallied sharply but could not hold the move in the market selling.
PCP: Sold back to test the 50 day EMA on low volume.
SWN: Fell through the 18 day EMA. Not ready yet.
XLE: Started lower on strong volume.
A variety of plays this evening as the market is at what could be a rebound point.
Upside:
Play Date: 10/12/2005
^SOX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$436.97; -1.74; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/^/^sox.html
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA (433.29). Chips tapped the 200 day on the low and rebounded, showing relative strength in the market with many chips positive in the afternoon despite all of the selling on NASDAQ and elsewhere. With the sentiment indicators ramping up to show some anxiety, we are looking for what appears to be an index ready to lead as a vehicle to ride a relief bounce.
BUY POINT: $437.88 Target=$458 Stop=$433.05
POSITION: SWA LH - Dec. $437.50c (53 delta) or SWA KH - Nov. $437.50c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/^sox.html
Play Date: 10/12/2005
BNI (Burlington Northern--$58.03; -0.41; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bni.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Amazing strength in a diving market. BNI broke out from a 23 week double bottom with handle base in mid-September. It rallied to 60 and in the recent market carnage it fell back to the 18 day EMA (57.82) on low volume. Not bad action at all. Volume surged Wednesday as BNI undercut the 18 day EMA and then rebounded to close and hold that level. Strong pattern. Market leader in earnings and sales. Nice action in a very weak market.
Volume: 4.464M Avg Volume: 2.085M
BUY POINT: $59.42 Volume=2.8M Target=$68.65 Stop=$57.55
POSITION: BNI AL - Jan. $60c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bni.html
Play Date: 10/12/2005
GVHR (Gevity HR, Inc.--$25.76; -0.2; optionable): Staffing and outsourcing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gvhr.html
STATUS: Test breakout. GVHR blasted out of a 18 month base in late September, surging to 28. A market leader in sales, earnings and pattern. Strong 21 to 14 accumulation in the base (21 up price weeks on rising volume to 14 down price weeks on rising volume). In the market selling it faded back to the 18 day EMA (25.53) on low volume, holding near support. Impressive strength in this market. Ready to continue the break higher on a market rebound.
Volume: 295.443K Avg Volume: 260.735K
BUY POINT: $26.65 Volume=391K Target=$31.98 Stop=$25.35
POSITION: HWU BE - Feb. $25c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gvhr.html
Play Date: 10/12/2005
VTIV (Ventiv Health--$26.35; +0.03; optionable): Health care management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vtiv.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Big, strong breakout in early September as VTIV broke from a 24 week cup with handle base sporting strong 9 to 5 accumulation (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume). Rallied further almost to 28 before the market hit the skids this month. VTIV did not imploded, testing down to the 50 day EMA (24.64) intraday Monday but then rebounding. Trying to continue the move and follow money flow higher. Excellent relative strength. Market leader and top rated stock in earnings and sales and pattern.
Volume: 620.478K Avg Volume: 476.123K
BUY POINT: $28.05 Volume=714K Target=$33.75 Stop=$26.09
POSITION: QBP AY - Jan. $27.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vtiv.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/12/2005
GSF (Globalsantafe--$42.01; -0.14; optionable): Oil and gas drilling/exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gsf.html
STATUS: Put. Strong run into August, a lateral move, and then an implosion through the 50 day EMA (44.18) to start October, falling to near the 200 day SMA (39.32). It rebounded the past four sessions, rallying back to the 10 day EMA (42.82) on a Wednesday gap higher. It could not hold the move and turned over on surging, above average volume. Looks ready to turn back down, and a move to the prior lows near 40 lands us a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 4.944M Avg Volume: 2.483M
BUY POINT: $41.89 Volume=2.5M Target=$39.87 Stop=$42.08
POSITION: GSF WV - Nov. $42.50p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gsf.html
Play Date: 10/12/2005
PLCE (Childrens Place--$35.41; -1.43; optionable): Retail apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plce.html
After Hours: $35.41
STATUS: Put. Trending lower since the June peak, PLCE rallied to tap the 50 day EMA (39.23) last week intraday but then faded. It tried to hold the 18 day EMA (36.77) but then collapsed through that level Wednesday, resuming the downside move. That tap at the 50 day EMA was where it came up for air and set up further downside. Looking to move in on a continued drop as it resumes its downside move. A move to the target lands us a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 610.379K Avg Volume: 799.102K
BUY POINT: $35.29 Volume=800K Target=$33.35 Stop=$36.55
POSITION: TUY WG - Nov. $35p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/plce.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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