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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: GPN; HAE; IRIS; SMTS; UNH; WIRE
Thursday night play results:
COSI: Jumped higher on very strong trade but closed flat. Still solid.
ESRX: Just needs a bit more volume.
MPWR: Took the day off and still ready to continue the breakout move.
PPDI: Slipped further below the 50 day EMA on rising trade. Still in the pattern but has to show us the strong move.
Upside:
Play Date: 10/15/2005
AQNT (Aquantive--$19.17; +1.18; optionable): Digital marketing via internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aqnt.html
After Hours: $19.16
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume has moved back above average the past two sessions as AQNT held support at 18 and rallied sharply Friday. We were watching AQNT for a buy point at the end of September but it was caught in the October selling that pushed it lower. Volume remained low and below average on the fade, showing few sellers. That looks to be the final shakeout in the 13 week base sporting solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume). Strong money flow is leading higher. Looking for continued strong volume as AQNT moves through the buy point; that shows us the big money is really moving in after the early October shakeout. Market leader with excellent fundamental and technical characteristics.
Volume: 1.438M Avg Volume: 1.034M
BUY POINT: $19.38 Volume=1.6M Target=$23.35 Stop=$18.48
POSITION: QBT CD - Mar. $20c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aqnt.html
Play Date: 10/15/2005
AVL (Aviall--$35.5; +0.19; optionable): After market supply chain management services for aerospace, defense and marine industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. AVL is another market leader sporting some of the best fundamental and technical numbers in the market. In the recent October selling AVL bounced higher and then spent last week forming the handle, the lateral low volume shakeout, to the 10 week pattern. Formed over the 50 day EMA (33.86), an important institutional support level. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying, and money flow is strong as well. Good volume Friday as it gapped higher toward the breakout. Looks super and ready for a new all-time high.
Volume: 260.7K Avg Volume: 191.02K
BUY POINT: $36.22 Volume=287K Target=$42.55 Stop=$34.77
POSITION: AVL CG - Mar. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/avl.html
Play Date: 10/15/2005
CRDN (Ceradyne--$37.70; +1.20; optionable): Ceramic products for defense, industrial, auto, etc. applications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crdn.html
After Hours: $37.70
STATUS: Test breakout. During the recent October selling CRDN showed its strength with a lateral move over the 18 day EMA (36.26) as it tested the late September breakout from a nicely formed 9 month base. Solid 10 to 7 accumulation shows net buying setting up the breakout move. Strong surge on strong volume provided the breakout, following the rising money flow. Relative strength broke out as well, a good corroboration of the price move. A market leader in both technical position and fundamentals. Ready for a breakout to a new all-time high as CRDN continues its breakout move. Friday it was up on a return to above average volume. Looks strong.
Volume: 623.592K Avg Volume: 557.167K
BUY POINT: $38.12 Volume=800K Target=$44.95 Stop=$36.22
POSITION: AUE CG - Mar. $35c (65 delta) or AUE CH - Mar. $40c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/crdn.html
Play Date: 10/15/2005
SYKE (Sykes Enterprises--$13.53; +0.18; optionable): Outsourced customer contact management solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syke.html
After Hours: $13.53
STATUS: Breakout test. SYKE is a market leader with strong fundamentals to go along with its strong technical position. It broke out from a from a 20 month base in late June and has rallied since. It gapped sharply higher in early October as it upped its Q3 guidance (earnings November 8). During the recent selling it tested that move, filling the gap on three occasions as it tapped lower intraday and rebounded to the close. Money flow has resumed its strong rise ahead of the stock and we anticipate the stock to follow it once more and continue the breakout move.
Volume: 269.761K Avg Volume: 292.367K
BUY POINT: $13.69 Volume=439K Target=$16.55 Stop=$12.73
POSITION: UIK AV - Jan. $12.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/syke.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/15/2005
AXL (American Axle & Manufacturing--$21.64; +0.01; optionable): Auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/axl.html
STATUS: Put. AXL is in what we call a continuing downtrend that started in September as AXL fell through the 200 day SMA (24.52). It rebounded, but could not break through the 10 day EMA (now 21.74) and started the current 6 week trend lower. Weak stocks will trend lower below the 10 and 18 day EMA after a breakdown just as a strong stock will trend above those levels after a breakout. AXL ended last week with a rally that tapped the 18 day EMA (22.15) on the intraday high before giving the move back. Money flow is leading lower, and we are looking for AXL to continue the trend lower after this test of near resistance. A move to the target lands us a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 1.187M Avg Volume: 921.182K
BUY POINT: $21.51 Volume=1M Target=$20 Stop=$21.78
POSITION: AXL WX - Nov. $22.50p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/axl.html
Play Date: 10/15/2005
CX (Cemex SA--$47.58; -0.91; optionable): Cement
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cx.html
STATUS: Double top. CX double topped in early October, making the second top after the early September storm higher. The second top had no volume. CX thudded down to the 50 day EMA (49.05) bounced in an attempt to recover, but then breached that support Thursday. Friday it tried the 50 day but then turned over and fell on strong volume; not good action as the market was rallying. Looking for a continued move lower to enter. Looking for a 40%ish gain on the move to the target. Like the play because it can give us this gain without even having to hit the late August low at 44.
Volume: 3.485M Avg Volume: 1.708M
BUY POINT: $47.42 Volume=1.8M Target=$45.38 Stop=$48.32
POSITION: CX WJ - Nov. $50p (-73 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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