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world stock market, us stock market
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10/15/05 Investment House Daily
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SUMMARY:
- SP500, SP600 join in the rebound rally but SOX is a no-show.
- Economic data cuts both ways regarding economy's strength and further Fed action.
- CPI soars but core remains low: inflation versus high prices.
- September retail sales solid ex-autos that suffered due to end of incentives.
- History shows fiscal and monetary policy have to work together to beat inflation and promote growth.
- Early October Michigan sentiment read declines unexpectedly.
- Earnings to put market to test as market seeks to form a bottom
Rally continues Friday but without SOX and without much volume.
There was definite economic data overload Friday not only from the scheduled releases of data but also GE's Q3 earnings where all of its six businesses experienced greater than 13% growth and saw no issues with customer demand in this quarter. That did not vault the market higher; indeed, it didn't even give GE much of a boost (+0.32). Combined with the other data, however, and a continuing oversold condition, it helped boost stocks for a second consecutive session.
There was a torrent of data. CPI hit a 25 year high but the core was as tame as a sedated ground sloth. Retail sales were slower but take out autos and they beat expectations. Factory output and usage fell, but most was traceable directly to the storms. Michigan sentiment fell when it was expected to rise; that was the pickle that choked the market early on, but it recovered. Since it was the preliminary Michigan statement perhaps investors were not too taken aback.
Futures remained positive after the early data and stocks started higher. The Michigan report stalled the early move and turned the indices negative, but they recovered and rallied into lunch. It was still no slam dunk; afternoons have killed the market during the selling. SP500 hit 1184 resistance at lunch and then fell into the early afternoon. Buyers recovered, however, and rallied the market into the close. NASDAQ posted another gain while SP500 and SP600 joined the action just as we said they had to do. The glaring omission from the action was SOX; the semiconductors started the party and then left early. They need to show up again this week to keep the rebound alive and better set up the test lower and thus have a better shot at setting a bottom.
Odds favor another test lower after this rebound.
We talk of another test because this was not a great session or answer to all of the selling the prior two weeks. Breadth was excellent, NASDAQ and SP500 cleared near resistance, leadership was active, and sentiment hit some pretty extreme levels on the selling. That is the stuff bottom making and ultimately bottoms are about. On the other side of the ledger, volume fell way off the table on the upside moves this week, meaning the buyers were fewer in number than the sellers on the way down. While NASDAQ and SP500 moved through near resistance, they are both still below key resistance points and face a mountain of overhead supply that formed as the market jumped off the October cliff. It was also quite interesting that just after we heard cries of 'bear market' Wednesday and Thursday, thus giving us a heads up to a rebound, we heard claims of a bottom on Friday. That indicates there is still too much upside faith in the market and it makes it quite likely the market will finish this bounce this week and then test investors' nerve with yet another drop.
It is still too early to call a bottom yet, particularly with the Fed still raising rates and posturing it is going past the 4.5% the market expects. There is also earnings season that comes into full swing next week. GE reported stellar earnings for GE and it could not make much of it Friday. With the Fed raising rates and the worry that the future is going to be slower as a result, companies will have to provide guidance that says 'we don't care about no stinking rate hikes' in its strength in order for stocks to swim upstream against the tide of higher rates and energy prices, not to mention the talk about removing the tax cuts.
Thus we are expecting another downside move after this one. As discussed Thursday, the market tends to 'bottom' twice in these sell offs if it is going to make a recovery. The last time it did this was the last time the market bottomed from some nasty selling. That was back in April. Stocks dove lower on volume, rebounded on lighter trade, and rolled back over on strong volume to test the prior low, undercutting it dramatically on NASDAQ before rebounding on strong volume. From there stocks held and rallied, showing a follow through the third session of May, and rallied through the end of July. We note that April was an earnings season as well.
Another example? August 2004 and October 2004, the prior two bottoms before April 2005. Stocks dove lower on volume in August, rebounded on low volume, then dove lower again on much stronger trade. They undercut the early low intraday and then rallied into October. In October stocks sold just as they have done this year. A modest rebound mid-month and then another test lower that undercut the prior low. A doji on the session of the undercut, and then a volume move higher and a follow through on the third and fourth sessions of November. Once again these were both earnings months.
There are still leaders holding up well, and many recovered further Friday or started again as the rebound broadened out from Thursday. Leadership is always a good sign for a rebound. After the next test those left standing will be the good movers as the market recovers.
Even with these historical examples and leadership, there is still no lock this was the bottom or that a bottom is going to form here. There are new issues confronting the market that were not there in April, October or August. Storms and the third year of recovery from the October 2002 bottom are two that come to mind. In addition, the Fed is still a question mark for the market as it has ramped up its hawkish talk after the storms. The market is mulling all of this as it works up and down here as the bulls and bears fight to determine which way the market goes from here. Again, when we see another bottom that yields a bounce we can start thinking bottom. If leaders are looking good, we can think a bit more. If it shows a follow through we can be pretty sure it has occurred. By that time we will already have some great leaders working hard for us.
THE ECONOMY
The economic data Friday was from September and thus factored in some of the Katrina and Rita effects. The data gave reason to cheer and reason to be concerned. Prices jumped overall thanks to energy, but scant rose in other areas. That is good in itself, but it also helps when the Fed is on the trail of inflation. Factory production and utilization were significantly lower, however, no doubt the result of port closures, refinery outages, production shut-ins, and other losses related to the storms. That is not great news but it also takes some heat off the economy vis- -vis the Fed. Of course the Fed still views these issues temporary as they relate to the storms. Michigan sentiment for October (the preliminary 200 respondents) dropped when it was expected to rise, and that jarred the market.
In sum, the data still suggests a growing economy, but one that is beset by continuing challenges. Yes there is the rebuild surge anticipated, but there are even higher energy prices as a result of the storms and they won't be resolved soon. It is the interim period as energy prices remain high and the Fed continues hiking that has the market spooked. The Fed's track record warrants such concern.
Prices are rising, but outside energy the pace is still slow.
CPI jumped 1.2% in September, the strongest gain since 1980. If that is all you looked at you would get out your plastic sheeting and duct tape and dig in for a long nuclear winter as the Fed lobs rate hike bombs and drains the money supply. Back in 1980, however, there was a similar problem as energy was starting to spike higher again after a brief lull between the OPEC embargos of the 1970's and the start of the Reagan presidency. Oil prices rose sharply through the early 1980's and that economy stalled but then surged on the Reagan tax program. The 1980 CPI growth the current economy matched in September was at the start of the price spikes. Our current price episode has been ongoing for a year and there are indications oil has met significant resistance at $70/bbl and is not likely to move through that level anytime soon. The point: this spike in overall prices driven by energy costs is not likely to continue as it did in the early 1980's. That economy, even with spiking energy prices, started the longest expansion in history when the right kind of supply side policies were implemented. If we continue to provide the incentive for economic growth, we too might be able to skate by these high prices and continue expansion.
The climate in DC right now, however, is not that conducive. Reagan was a budget cutter; Bush is a budget buster. Accordingly he lacks Reagan's credibility when he comes before Congress and talks about budgetary restraint and then pushes more tax incentives. History, even recent history, shows it is a no-brainer that reducing tax rates increases tax revenues. At some point it does not, but in the history of the US and indeed the world we have not found the point where lower rates do not generate higher tax revenues. History also shows, however, that all the money brought in is spent when there has been a neglect of defense matters during peacetime and the piling on of more and more social programs. Only after the fall of the USSR and nothing was spent on defense for a decade did we finally get a balanced budget from the boom started in the early eighties. There is a gross misunderstanding in DC as to what makes the economy work, and with all of the grousing about deficits, taxes, paying for storm damage, etc., nothing creative is likely to emerge such as paying for the Katrina and Rita disasters with incentives such as enterprise and tax free zones. With the Fed still on the warpath, that leaves the economic future in jeopardy.
Near term, the core CPI, taking out the surging energy costs, rose just 0.1%, less than the 0.2% gain expected. That dropped the year over year core growth to 2% from 2.1%. That means that prices outside of energy are not rising fast and they are definitely not absorbing any of the high energy costs. Energy prices rose at a 17% clip in September but the core was not anywhere near that level. Yes we are all paying higher prices for gasoline and oil changes, but those costs are not dramatically jumping prices elsewhere and nowhere near the rate at which energy costs are rising.
The rate of rise in prices versus sustained prices.
That is the rub with the CPI. You hear it was up just 0.1% on the core but you know you are paying more for all kinds of items (education, healthcare, etc.). CPI measures the monthly change. You add up enough 0.1% and 0.2% gains and you have rising prices. Indeed, CPI measures the change of prices not actual prices. The Fed wants core inflation growing less than 2% year over year. That is why the Fed is raising rates now as it wants to moderate growth and thus lower the inflation rise. You and me are still paying more for our goods as long as CPI is rising. We have been paying higher prices, particularly energy, for two years now, and prices are not going to drop dramatically anytime soon. This is where the SUSTAINED price gains come into play. Energy prices alone don't necessarily impact the economy, at least not long term. It is whether those prices remain high for a long time that has the greatest economic impact. Are energy prices high? Yes. Have they been high for a long time? Yes. Is the economy at risk because of this? Yes.
That is the other rub. The Fed feels the need to raise rates because it fears energy prices will bleed into other prices. Will raising interest rates impact oil prices? Only indirectly. The Fed would have to slow the US economy to a level where our consumption dropped enough to offset all of the other demand in the world (e.g. China and India). To do that we would have to go into recession because those other countries are so oil hungry.
Are we willing to take one for the rest of the world? Hell no. We did that in 2000 when the Fed hiked rates in a backroom agreement with other central bankers and the ultra wealthy in order to narrow the gap the US had opened on the rest of the world. Too many new billionaires were being created that threatened the relative wealth of the ultra rich and the US technology gap was getting too wide for the rest of the world. Greenspan worked with other central bankers to hobble the US economy, and as we saw, the usual result of Fed action ensued. We lost trillions in retirement accounts not to mention our technological lead.
We don't want to do that again but the way the Fed looks at the world (from the demand side), it sees no alternatives to its current course of action. It takes monetary policy working hand in hand with fiscal policy to remedy the effects of sustained energy prices, but as noted above, DC is too embroiled in political fights to take a rational look at history and the facts and form a policy that will promote growth despite the high energy costs. We all want growth. We all want everyone to succeed and be productive members of society. That way our standard of living rises and we reach our potential. You don't get there by government giveaways. You have to create an environment of growth that allows risk takers to be rewarded. They create jobs and tax revenues. Everyone wins.
Fiscal policy and monetary policy have to work together.
Instead, DC looks at history, sees big deficits in the 1980's when Reagan cut taxes, sees surpluses in the 1990's after Bush and Clinton raised taxes, sees deficits in the 1990's after Bush cut taxes, and concludes that raising taxes creates surpluses and cutting taxes creates deficits. In truth, cutting taxes generated more tax revenues, but spending on defense to run the USSR into economic ruin and other programs created deficits. After the USSR fell and the very mild 1991 recession ended, those revenues kept pouring in and there was no longer any cold war to fund.
Clinton raised taxes further, however, before all of the residual cold war spending was resolved. Then the continued boom brought in huge revenues, far, far in excess of what was envisioned by the tax hikes (because the economy was much stronger than thought). Instead of giving the money back to those who earned it, it was decided that it would be used to reduce the debt. We always had a problem with that. The government said it had to raise taxes to cover current expenses. It turns out it covered them and had hundreds of billions more. Did it admit it took in too much and give it back? No, it just spent it another way. Moral: the government spends all it takes in, and thus it is imperative to limit up front what the government takes in.
That was the start of the end of the boom. That money should have been in the economy fueling new investment and growth. Instead it was taken out of circulation as the US bought back treasuries. Interest rates started to rise because 'real' money was removed from the economy. When the Fed started raising rates and drying up the money supply as the economic cycle matured (as the Fed always does; it always acts late), it was too much for the economy. It exacerbated its moves by flooding the economy with liquidity ahead of Y2K (even as it was raising interest rates to cool off a 'red hot' economy - - absolutely insane acts that show it had other motives as described above) and then taking it all back cold turkey in March 2000. That was the final jolt that chopped the economy off at the knees.
Thus the greatest economic boom in history was choked off by a combination of fiscal and monetary missteps. As you see, it is indeed a combination of both fiscal and monetary policy that creates booms or ends them. When the Fed gets scared of its shadow, fearing inflation as the 1929 Fed did when none existed, you can bet that it is getting ready to choke off an expansion.
Retail sales lower than expected, solid ex-autos.
Incentives are over and you could tell from the auto sales reported this week. It was enough to turn a lackluster 0.2% gain overall (0.5% expected, -2.1% August) into a solid 1.1% rise (0.8% expected).
Autos fell 2.8% after a 12.1% August decline. Gasoline sales accounted for much of the retail sales gain, rising 4%. That did not stop purchases of some discretionary items such as home furnishings (+1.2%), personal care (+1.1%), and electronics/appliance (+0.8%). Department stores, clothing stores, and hobby/sporting goods stores sales were all lower.
So the consumer was a bit stronger than lowered expectations. The key as discussed above is whether energy prices can drop significantly and stay down awhile before the holiday shopping season kicks in. Consumers need to see lower prices and feel they are going to stay lower for awhile to spend better. As always the jobs situation dictates much of what the consumer does. If the jobs are safe then the consumer will spend. If there is a sense the jobs is threatened, the consumer will pull back considerably. Thus far jobs appear to be holding up quite well outside of the storm region where they were basically washed away.
Factory output, utilization fall more than expected on storm closures.
The similarities to the early 1980's continue. Industrial production, i.e. output from factories, mines and utilities, fell 1.3% (-0.3% expected), the largest one month drop since a 1.9% decline in January 1982. The 1982 slowdown occurred as the US was trying to pull out of an ugly recession. This slowdown was largely led by shut in energy production on the Gulf coast as oil and natural gas extraction fell 9.1%. Manufacturing production fell 0.5%.
Operating capacity fell to 78.6%, well below the 79.6% expected and August's 79.8%. Again we can look to the storms as the cause of much of the decline. With so many refineries, ports, and chemical plants closed in the impact zone you could expect capacity to fall. With the ripple effects as well upstream, one might think the drop was modest. Consider that lower Mississippi river traffic was halted for a week after the storm as there was no place to offload cargos.
At least we can point to a specific event causing this other than a general malaise overtaking the economy. The fear, of course, is that the temporary slowdown becomes more long term. The Fed views it as temporary and is basically ignoring storm impacts in its monetary policy moves. As discussed above, there is always concern when the Fed raises rates even in the best of times. Add on extraordinary events (e.g., storms, spiking energy costs) and that only makes things more interesting as the Chinese say.
Preliminary Michigan Sentiment hits 13 year low on storm and energy worries. Just how temporary were those storms?
The 75.4 reading was expected to be 80 and to top the September 76.9 showing. The survey said most were still worried over the impact of high energy prices and the impact of the storms. Expectations hit a 13 year low as well at 62.4, down from a sharp drop in September to 63.3. Current conditions fell to 95.7 from 98.1; it was expected to rise to 99.5.
Confidence is still high enough to support the economy, though still trending lower. Given that it has not dropped off the table after the storms is an indication it will try to stabilize here as energy prices are dropping now. It does raise the issue as to just how temporary the storm impacts are. As noted above, the Fed views the effects short term. Confidence was expected to mirror this with an increase now that the storms were over and at least some normalcy was returning. Confidence is slow to recover, however, indeed not recovering yet. This is a low input survey (preliminary report is just 200 respondents) so it may change as the month continues (it often does but only worsened last month). The point here is that it did not snap right back as the pollsters opined and casts a bit of doubt on the Fed's 'short term impact' assumption in its monetary policy.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 14.87; -1.6. The market bounce kept VIX from moving to 18 or better, a scenario we wanted as it would be a clear indication of near term extremes. VIX fell like a stone Friday on the market rebound. Don't think this is the end, however. Another drop by the market to test the first should send an already edgy VIX over that level.
VXN: 16.23; -0.96
VXO: 14.6; -1.46
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.06; -0.25. Sixth out of seven sessions with the ration above 1.0. The overall put/call ratio topped 1.0 twice in the past week, and that is a very good signal extreme readings are occurring.
Bulls versus Bears:
Bulls and bears showed the jumps we were looking for though bears did not quite hit the 30% level seen in early May just after the market bottomed. There is still the next leg lower, however, to run that up and even past that level. Getting where they need to be to form a bottom here.
Bulls: 45.8%. The second consecutive 3.7 point drop (49.5% last week) pushed bulls close to their May levels when the market embarked on its last run. Third down week in a row after three up weeks, and the drops have been larger than the gains. Bottomed in May at 43.5%.
Bears: 29.2%. Did not quite hit 30% as we wished for, but a solid 1.4 point gain (from 27.8%) got it within spitting distance. On this last trip lower it easily held above the 20% level that is considered bearish. Hit a high for the year at 30% in early May.
NASDAQ
Stats: +17.61 points (+0.86%) to close at 2064.83
Volume: 1.57B (-14.2%). Volume fell off the table on this second day of the rally, coming in well below average. That shows few buyers when compared to the sellers, and the below average trade shows few buyers in any event. Thus it is likely to fail this week in this first rebound attempt from the selling.
Up Volume: 1.153B (+35M)
Down Volume: 360M (-328M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.24 to 1. Unlike Thursday, solid breadth as advancing issues spread out across the index. That is less like a relief bounce in character. It is contrast to the volume but it does not trump volume.
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.01 to 1
New Highs: 48 (+19)
New Lows: 173 (-63)
The Chart: The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^ixq.html
NASDAQ gapped higher, tested lower almost immediately, but managed to rebound and rally into the close. Good breadth as noted showed widespread nibbling and not just short covering of those big names that were shorted on the way down. The volume drop off, however, clearly shows us that even with the broad buying, it was just nibbling with no 'load the boat' type action that shows buyers are taking over the action. NASDAQ is approaching next resistance at the 200 day SMA (2074) after clearing the 2050-51 level Friday. After that is 2100. As in other rebounds from a blow down, the action can be back and forth on the recovery. Thus we can see a test of the 200 day SMA and then a drop only to be followed by a rebound that carries it toward 2100 where there is some serious resistance.
SOX led Thursday but it sat Friday out, letting the other indices do the work (-0.82%). It did not collapse and it rebounded to close well off of its intraday low, but SOX will have to again provide some more backbone for the rest of the market to move higher and continue this relief bounce. The more room it gains here, the better the test is likely to be.
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +9.73 points (+0.83%) to close at 1186.57
NYSE Volume: 1.705B (-0.74%). NYSE volume fell as well but unlike NASDAQ it remained above average. While it was lower than most of the selling volume in the October drop, it did top the Monday selling volume. A small victory, but it shows there is some strength in the buying.
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.14 to 1. The small caps were leading the action and that helped breadth reach respectable levels on this rebound. As with NASDAQ, that shows there was some actual buying as opposed to just short covering as the action spread out over the market.
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.86 to 1
New Highs: 23 (+6)
New Lows: 246 (-134)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^gspc.html
Once more SP500 undercut the August 2003/August 2004 up trendline (now at 1177) but once more it rebounded to hold that level and that propelled it to rebound and rally. Indeed when SP500 tested, held and bounced from that level the rest of the market when with it. It cleared near resistance at 1184 and is now approaching the key range from 1190 to 1200. There is a lot of resistance at 1200 from price resistance and the 200 day SMA (1199.27) that will likely put the brakes on this rebound if it can make it that far. The 10 day EMA (1192) also stands in the way.
The small cap SP60 (+0.68%) did in fact bounce up off of that Thursday hammer doji shown on the candlestick chart, recapturing the 200 day SMA (330) as it closed at the session high (332.38). Important to clear this level as it gives SP600 some room to run with the rest of the market toward the 10 day EMA (335) or even the 18 day EMA (338.55). That higher move helps set up a better shakeout as it brings more buyers back into the market just to get shaken out on the test.
DJ30
The blue chips bounced as well, but its gain lagged the market once more. Held support near 10,200 to 10,175 on this test. It has the 10 day EMA (10,305) immediately ahead of it followed by the August and September lows at 10,350 and the 18 day EMA (10,360). That is likely to be the level that slows the move and sets up the next test lower.
Stats: +70.75 points (+0.69%) to close at 10287.34
Volume: 239M shares Friday versus 270M shares Thursday.
The chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^dji.html
MONDAY
Earnings move into full swing this week, as if the market did not need another obstacle to its advance. It heads into the trading with a two day rebound under its belt, but it is moving on lower trade and is already heading toward strong resistance. All of this is part of the attempt to evaluate the headwinds facing the market and to determine if it is going to bottom or sell off further into a bear market.
It is hard to rush these things; they have to play out with the bulls and bears, buyers and sellers, trying to take the market their way. In the end one side is stronger and wins the day, showing its victory with a strong rebound and follow through or a continuation of the strong selling.
As noted this move is on low volume and will approach key resistance this week. That is likely to set off another leg lower though these upside recoveries can be up and down. Makes sense as the buyers and sellers are basically equal while this process continues. What we are going to do in this circumstance is watch how the leaders react. As we have seen in the selling, some hold up beautifully, ignoring the market. Others crack and then sink. Those that survive the next round of pullbacks will be twice tested and ready to move higher after the test is through. During this time if we see a solid opportunity to enter, i.e. a strong stock makes a solid move off support, a breakout, etc. we will start accumulating some positions.
As we noted to start the month, there were going to be some downside scares in October given the rather apathetic finish to September without a major sell off. Well, we have had one, and we are likely to get another as the market tests the first low. We remain very concerned about the future of the market given the Fed, energy, and a very poisonous atmosphere in DC with respect to policies that would help the economy.
Case in point is the tax reform committee. It had the opportunity to really be creative and propose a flat tax, a sales tax, tax free enterprise zones, etc., but instead we are hearing it is going to simply offer a plan that removes the AMT but reduces the mortgage exemption to $350K and capping healthcare cost deductions by employers who pay for their employees healthcare. Once again government says it wants to promote an action (small employers who could not otherwise do so providing employee healthcare through HSA's) but then takes actions that punish or discourage the supposedly desired behavior. Thus they are going to put forth a plan that only scratches the surface of the current system and its ills, trading one ill for others and doing what government always does when it feels it is threatened: drop back and punt, putting the burden on those who work hard and achieve some success.
In any case, that is one example of what the market faces: so much promise (social security reform, tax reform, etc.) has turned into the same old threats to the economy (raising taxes, lots of federal spending, business as usual), and that on top of the energy spikes and Fed hikes has put the market to this point. What we do now is watch how it unfolds and be ready to act as the opportunity arises.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2064.83
Resistance:
The 200 day SMA at 2074
2100 was key resistance and support in the past
The 18 day EMA at 2096
The 50 day EMA at 2120
The 50 day SMA at 2134
2154 from January 2004 high
2178 is the January closing high
2187 is the September high.
2191.60, the January intraday high.
2192 is the mid-July high.
2220 is the August high
Support:
2050-51 is price resistance from spring and summer 2005 consolidations
2018 is the early April high.
The August 2004/April 2005 up trendline at 2015
S&P 500: Closed at 1186.57
Resistance:
The 10 day EMA at 1192
The 200 day SMA at 1199.26
1200 was solid price support
1210 held in late September on the close.
December 2004 high at 1219 and June high at 1220
The 50 day EMA at 1212
The 50 day SMA at 1218
March 2005 closing high at 1225 and intraday high at 1229.11
The September high at 1243 and the recent August high at 1246
Support:
1183 - 1184 from November 2004 highs and July 2005 intraday low and a high way back in July 1998
1177 is the August 2003/August 2004 up trendline.
1165 - 1155 from late 2001/early 2002 double top
Dow: Closed at 10,287.34
Resistance:
10,350 turned out to be support in the recent August and September pullbacks
The May high at 10,406 and 10,400, the bottom of the November/December range
The 10 day EMA at 10,305
The 50 day EMA at 10,451
The 200 day SMA at 10,514
Price consolidation at 10,600
The June highs at 10,646 to 10,656
10,720 is the high in the recent lateral move. This is the key resistance.
10,754 is the February high
10,868 is the December 2005 high.
10,985 is the March high
Support:
10,250 held in the June and July lows
10,200 from April.
10,175 from the July intraday low.
10,000 from the April low.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
October 17
NY Empire State Index, October (08:30): 20.0 expected and 17.0 prior
October 18
PPI, September (08:30): 1.1% expected and 0.6% prior
Core PPI, September (08:30): 0.2% expected and 0.0% prior
October 19
Housing Starts, September (08:30): 1950K expected and 2009K prior
Building Permits, September (08:30): 2050K expected and 2138K prior
Crude Inventories, 10/14 (10:30)
October 20
Initial Jobless Claims, 10/15 (08:30): 389K prior
Leading Indicators, September (10:00): -0.5% expected and -0.2% prior
Philadelphia Fed, October (12:00): 10.0 expected and 2.2 prior
End part 1 of 3
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