|
|
us stock market, stock ticker
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Weekend play results:
AOB: Volume moved higher as AOB toyed with a breakout.
PQUE:L Average volume as PQUE held basically steady.
TEX: Gapped higher but no volume.
AXL: Gapped higher but gave much of the move back. Watching to see if it falls again.
Upside:
Play Date: 10/17/2005
AAPL (Apple Computer--$53.44; -0.56; optionable): iPods, Macs, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
After Hours: $53.42
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Broke out in mid-August, rallied up the 18 day EMA (52.10) and then dumped to the 50 day EMA (49.47) on earnings. Then it ricocheted off the 50 day Thursday on the introduction of the new iVideo gadget introduction. The past two sessions AAPL ahs moved laterally over the short term MA on low volume, setting up for the continued run. When you look at this you see typical action: breakout from a nice 6 month cup with handle base, run up the 18 day EMA, then a test of the 50 day EMA and a sharp bounce off that level. When volume jumps back up and AAPL starts higher that is our entry point as it continues its run up the 18 day.
Volume: 22.036M Avg Volume: 20.257M
BUY POINT: $54.48 Volume=30M Target=$62.95 Stop=$51.97
POSITION: QAA AX - Jan. $52.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/aapl.html
Play Date: 10/17/2005
CNQR (Concur Technologies--$13.15; +0.19; optionable): Technical & system software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnqr.html
After Hours: $13.15
STATUS: Test breakout. CNQR is moving laterally over the 50 day EMA (12.14) the past month, working in a range between 12 and 13 after breaking out in early September from a 11 month cup with handle base. Strong money flow is leading higher. Accumulation in the recent lateral range is a solid 3 to 1 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume). Relative strength broke out Monday as CNQR cleared the recent highs on strong volume. Looking to move in as CNQR continues higher. Earnings in late October.
Volume: 340.974K Avg Volume: 196.646K
BUY POINT: $13.32 Volume=250K Target=$15.98 Stop=$12.52
POSITION: JCQ BV - Feb. $12.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cnqr.html
Play Date: 10/17/2005
PSYS (Psychiatric Solutions--$53.12; +0.21; optionable): Specialized health services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psys.html
After Hours: $53.12
STATUS: Test breakout. PSYS continues its lateral move of the past 5 weeks, coming back the past two to tap at the 50 day EMA (51.07) on the session lows, recovering to close. That acts to shakeout the sellers in the up and down action. Low volume overall tells us there are not a lot of sellers, however. Broke out from an 18 week base in early September and rallied to 55. In the market selling it has formed this lateral move, biding its time until it can continue higher. During this lateral move accumulation is a solid 5 to 2. Solid all around both technically and fundamentally.
Volume: 392.728K Avg Volume: 406.863K
BUY POINT: $54.55 Volume=610K Target=$62.75 Stop=$52.58
POSITION: BYU CK - Mar. $55c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/psys.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/17/2005
IWN (Russell 2000 Value EFT--$62.84; -0.01; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iwn.html
STATUS: Put. Has made a series of lower highs since peaking in early August. It imploded in the recent market selling, breaking below the 200 day SMA (63.31) after attempting to hold that level for three sessions. After another dump lower IWN has rebounded the past three sessions and has tapped toward the 200 day SMA, stalling at the 10 day EMA (63.17) Monday, showing a big hanging man doji. Looking for it to roll over soon and want to be ready. A move to the target lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 2.659M Avg Volume: 1.062M
BUY POINT: $62.71 Volume=1.6M Target=$61.19 Stop=$63.19
POSITION: IWN WY - Nov. 63.38p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/iwn.html
Play Date: 10/17/2005
SPY (S&P Depository Receipts--$119.11; +0.44; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spy.html
After Hours: $119.10
STATUS: Put. Tumbled lower in the October selling from a lower high. It has rebounded the past three sessions to test the 10 day EMA (119.14) on declining volume. May find the strength to rally up to the 200 day SMA (120.03), but the entire market is looking pretty wobbly after this low volume rebound and we want to be ready to move in if it turns back down. A move to the target lands us a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 68.973M Avg Volume: 63.487M
BUY POINT: $118.97 Volume=70M Target=$117.15 Stop=$119.26
POSITION: SPY WO - Nov. $119p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/spy.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
AAPL, CELG, BR, COH, PSYS, RTSX, STN
CELG: Holding the move back over the 50 day EMA.
RTSX: Moving higher off the 50 day EMA, but it is not attracting any volume.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
BJS: Testing the 50 day EMA this month, filling the modest gap higher mid-September. Oil and gas service companies, while selling in the recent market dump lower, will be needed as the Gulf production continues to struggle to get back on line.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock ticker
|
