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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers: GSF; IWM; RTH; SPY
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 10/18/2005
NTRI (Nutrisystem--$28.16; -0.49; optionable): Weight loss systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntri.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Made us a nice return on the last breakout and run. It is now testing that move, filling the early October gap as it tests the 18 day EMA (27.42), holding the breakout move. Nice breakout from an 8 week ascending triangle. Strong 4 to 0 accumulation in the base shows nothing but buying, sending it higher. Strong money flow is still holding up on the pullback. Low volume the past three sessions as it holds near support at the 18 day EMA. Looking for volume to rebound as NTRI moves up off this breakout test.
Volume: 696.31K Avg Volume: 782.395K
BUY POINT: $29.05 Volume=1.2M Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.39
POSITION: NSI CF - Mar. $30c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntri.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/18/2005
COP (ConocoPhillips--$60.08; -2.94; optionable): Big oil
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cop.html
After Hours: $60.08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Volume is surging as COP moves toward the neckline and the breakdown from its 12 week bearish base. Money flow is diving lower ahead of price, and that surging volume indicates it is ready to make the breakdown. Major oil is struggling, and a move to the target lands us a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 9.45M Avg Volume: 6.434M
BUY POINT: $59.92 Volume=7M Target=$56.89 Stop=$60.45
POSITION: COP WL - Nov. $60p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cop.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
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http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
^SOX 10/12 Test 20 439.30 -5.42 440.33 459 0 0 442.11
Current. Pullback holding at some support. May continue to test back to 438.71.
AKAM 10/08 Test BO 16.6 -0.35 15.88 19.32 2M 1.9M 16.35
Current.
AME 10/11 PreAnn 42.84 -0.27 43.65 50.32 311K 475K 42.05
Buy Not Issued. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back holding the 10 day MVA on average volume. Moving up after testing the 18 day MVA.
AMLN 10/12 Test 18 36.23 -0.55 35.55 42.25 3.5M 4M 35.04
Current.
AQNT 10/15 Asc Bse 19.54 -0.21 19.38 23.35 720K 1.6M 18.48
Buy Not Issued. Pullback on rising, but below average volume. Needs to continue to pullback on low volume.
BABY 10/01 Test BO 12.3 +0.27 12.42 14.95 88K 222K 11.75
Buy Not Hit. Bounced off the 10 day MVA for a nice move on rising, but below average volume. Looking good. Like to see volume increase.
BEAV 10/10 Cup hdl 17.25 -0.29 18.05 21.68 678K 950K 16.85
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 17.65 at the intraday high, but gave it back on stronger above average volume. May continue to test back to the 10 day MVA (17.10)
COSI 10/01 Asc Bse 9.05 -0.25 10.28 12.39 1.8M 600K 9.64
Current. Big gap down tapping 8.64 at the intraday low but rallied back showing a doji at some support on very strong volume surge. Doji may indicate a change in pattern to the upside.
CRXL 09/07 DB hdl 27.08 -0.97 23.85 28.57 261K 305K 28.45
Current. Holding the 18 day EMA on lower volume so let it ride
another session to see if it can make a higher low
and continue the run.
DESC 10/13 Test 50 7.1 -0.02 7.55 9.45 470K 1.2M 7.02
Buy Not Hit.
DRRX 10/01 Test BO 6.88 +0.13 6.98 8.38 956K 500K 6.49
Buy Not Issued.
EMKR 09/15 Test BO 5.41 -0.13 5.62 6.98 294K 450K 5.67
Current.
EMR 10/06 Test BO 68.32 -0.65 70.15 81.95 1.8M 1.6M 68.38
Buy Not Hit.
ESLR 09/19 Asc Tri 8.91 -0.13 8.41 10.37 2.1M 1.3M 8.34
Current.
GVHR 10/12 Cup hdl 24.83 -0.09 26.65 31.98 136K 391K 25.35
Buy Not Hit. Pullback on low volume. May begin to level off here.
HAE 08/31 Asc Bse 45.77 -0.35 45.22 50.98 246K 215K 46.21
Current. Pullback on stronger above average volume. May continue to test back to 45.60
HITK 10/17 Cup hdl 31.3 -0.41 31.85 38.38 64K 154K 30.28
Buy Not Issued.
HOM 10/15 Pennant 5.61 +0.11 5.18 6.39 2.1M 1.8M 5.21
Current.
INFA 10/05 Test 18 11.93 -0.06 12.05 13.98 1M 1.5M 11.55
Buy Not Issued.
IRIS 10/13 Test BO 20.23 -0.34 20.44 24.95 162K 304K 19.38
Current. Pullback tapping 20.02 at the intraday low and rallied back holding the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume. Moving up after testing the breakout.
KNOT 10/08 Test 50 11.99 -0.36 12.33 14.85 194K 147K 11.47
Current.
KONG 10/05 Test BO 13.72 +0.33 13.45 16.75 257K 383K 13.11
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied back on rising, but below average volume. Did not enter the play because volume was not there. Will let test back.
LRCX 10/08 Asc Tri 33.11 +0.07 32.45 37.89 3.2M 3.8M 32.22
Current.
MACR 10/03 Dbl btm 41.61 -0.14 40.93 49.95 701K 1.3M 39.89
Current.
MTIX 10/15 Test BO 6.4 -0.09 6.65 7.98 162K 182K 6.18
Buy Not Issued.
NTES 10/17 Test 50 77 -3.17 81.25 94.95 693K 1.6M 78.39
Buy Not Hit. Ease back on low volume. May continue to test back to 76.86
NVDA 10/06 Test 18 31.81 -0.53 32.89 40.45 2.5M 6.5M 31.38
Buy Not Hit. Pullback testing the 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back on rising, but below average volume. May continue to test back to 50 day MVA (31.60)
RTI 09/25 Test BO 36.01 -1.6 38.98 46.45 157K 325K 38.55
Current.
SMSC 10/10 Test BO 27.19 -0.17 29.42 35.32 115K 293K 28.05
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 28.16 at the intraday high, but gave it back on low volume. May continue to test back to 26.66.
SMTS 10/06 Test BO 28.14 -0.24 28.63 34.24 52K 350K 27.05
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on low volume. Still in the pattern.
SYKE 10/15 Test BO 13.46 +0.04 13.69 16.55 192K 439K 12.73
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 13.15 at the intraday low and rallied back on lower below average volume. Still in the pattern.
TSAI 10/10 Asc Bse 29.21 -0.52 28.96 33.97 262K 297K 29.11
Current.
UNH 10/08 Test BO 56.51 +0.07 56.32 64.95 4.6M 6M 55.11
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on average volume. Beginning to level off holding onto some of the gain.
VRTX 09/06 Test BO 22.55 -0.08 19.46 23.15 1M 1.8M 21.68
Current.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
CX 10/15 Put 48.58 -0.72 48.68 46.57 961K 1.8M 49.32
Buy Not Issued. Moving down the 10 day MVA on lower below average volume. Not enough volume to enter the play. If stock continues the move tomorrow with volume will still be a buy.
GSF 10/12 Put 39.73 -2.36 41.89 39.87 3.2M 2.5M 41.11
An all in one move as GSF fell back thru the buy point
and all the way to the target just over the 200 day MA.
IWM 10/17 Put 62.17 -0.85 62.44 60.78 33M 30M 62.55
Entered today. Much better volume to the downside Tuesday than the
IWN so issued an alert on this one. Looking for a 41%
gain down to the target.
NETL 10/15 Put 19.57 -0.61 19.61 18.05 81K 383K 19.92
Buy Not Issued.
PIR 10/17 Put 10.99 +0.06 10.81 9.29 1.4M 1.3M 11.15
Buy Not Hit.
RTH 09/26 Put 91.19 -0.81 91.78 89.22 3.3M 4.5M 91.55
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday, but could not hold the gain as stock makes a nice move below the 10 day MVA on much stronger, but below average volume. Meeting some support at 90.80.
SPY 10/17 Put 117.82 -1.29 118.75 117 74M 70M 118.48
Entered today. Great move down the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
TRI 10/10 Put 44.09 +0.16 43.41 41.38 512K 1.1M 44.08
Bounce showing a doji on the 18 day MVA on low volume. Should rollover here.
VAL 09/25 Put 21.57 -0.02 21.95 20.85 533K 313K 21.24
Current. Tapped 21.88 at the intraday high, but could not hold the gain showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume. Should be ready for a move down from here.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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