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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AAPL; ACL; BRO; COP; WIRE; IWM
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 10/20/2005
CMTL (Comtech Telecom--$40.66; +1.27; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmtl.html
After Hours: $40.66
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. CMTL broke out from a 15 week double bottom with handle base in mid-September and rallied to 43. In the October selling it has tested the 50 day EMA (38.19), on lower volume, making a small double bottom at that level. Strong volume Thursday as it jumped through the short term MA. Closed well off the high (42.10), but looks strong and ready to continue the break higher. Strong money flow is surging higher ahead of price. Relative strength is moving to a new breakout. Ready to move into this strong leader as it continues the run higher.
Volume: 1.094M Avg Volume: 462.944K
BUY POINT: $41.05 Volume=694K Target=$48.95 Stop=$39.65
POSITION: CQH AH - Jan. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmtl.html
Play Date: 10/20/2005
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$30.31; +0.64; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume jumped back up Thursday as URBN heads toward the breakout from its 13 week base that formed as URBN moved toward its late September split. It formed this base just below a new all-time high. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the pattern has set up the breakout to the next run higher for this strong market leader.
Volume: 2.11M Avg Volume: 2.663M
BUY POINT: $31.22 Volume=4M Target=$37.45 Stop=$29.22
POSITION: URQ CZ - Mar. $32.50c (49 delta) or URQ CF - Mar. $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 10/20/2005
HYSL (Hyperion Solutions--$48.12; +0.58; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hysl.html
After Hours: $48
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice 8 month base sporting strong 9 to 5 accumulation (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume). Lots of buying during the base has set up the breakout and run higher. Money flow is rallying ahead of price, a good confirmation of that accumulation. Volume has moved higher the past four sessions as HYSL tested the 50 day EMA (46.24) on the low, using that key level as support for the handle. Ready to rumble and we are ready to move in as it shows us another strong volume move.
Volume: 1.022M Avg Volume: 582.747K
BUY POINT: $49.55 Volume=874K Target=$58.55 Stop=$47.22
POSITION: WQE BJ - Feb. $50c (48 delta) or WQE BI - Feb. $45c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hysl.html
Continuing Leader Play:
Play Date: 10/19/2005
WBSN (Websense--$53.81; -0.69; optionable): Employee internet management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wbsn.html
STATUS: Cup. Volume fell back below average Thursday as WBSN pulsed back, posting a modest loss. Just took a day off in a selling market. Still set to make the move. To recap: Volume jumped Tuesday and Wednesday as WBSN moved off the 200 day SMA (52.24), building the right side of its 8 month base. It is clearing resistance built over the last 5 weeks. Strong 7 to 4 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying in the base. A top rated stock as far as earnings and pattern. Looking to move in as it continues higher on a bit stronger volume.
Volume: 439.087K Avg Volume: 554.658K
BUY POINT: $54.88 Volume=832K Target=$63.45 Stop=$52.91
POSITION: DQH AK - Jan. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wbsn.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AGN: Forecast 10-26-05. No current play. Not doing it as AGN turns down from the 10 day EMA on continued above average volume.
AME: Forecast 10-20-05 before the open. Never gave us the strong move and the earnings sent a nice pattern lower.
BRO: Forecast 10-17-05 after the close. Announced the split Wednesday and it has been on a strong run since.
CERN: Forecast 10-20-05. No split announced and sold back to test the 18 day EMA. We took the gain earlier but if it holds and sets up again we will look at a new play.
CLF: Forecast 11-8-05. No current play. Cleared 80 on the open but that was it. Sold back to the 50 day EMA on volume.
DVN: Forecast 11-2-05 before the open. Diving lower on volume. Not going to be high enough to consider a split if this keeps up.
GD: Forecast 10-19-05 before the open. No split announced. After a pretty good session Wednesday GD was roughed up today.
GG: Forecast 11-7-05. No current play. Nope. Not doing it, selling harder below the 50 day EMA.
GYI: Forecast 10-20-05. No current play. Not going anywhere as it holds just below the 10 day EMA on low volume.
HAR: Forecast 10-19-05 after the close. No split but some strong trade gapped it higher. Needs to put thos good earnings to work for us.
IMDC: Forecast 11-7-05
ISRG: Forecast 10-25-05
LM: Forecast 10-25-05 before the open. No current play. Rallied to the 50 day EMA but closed well off that level. Still working in its 3 month lateral move around the 50 day EMA.
MRVL: Forecast 11-17-05 after the close
PG: Forecast 11-9-05 after the close
RL: 11-4-05 before the open
RS: Forecast 10-20-05. Gapped higher as several steel stocks reported good earnings. Could not hold the move, however.
SIE: Forecast 10-24-05 after the close. As volatile as the market as it tries to set up for the breakout.
SLB: Forecast 10-20-05. Still trying to push back up through the 50 day EMA. Declared a dividend as opposed to a stock split.
SWN: Forecast 10-27-05 before the open.
TECH: Forecast 10-27-05 before the open
UPL: Forecast 10-25-05 after the close.
WFMI: Forecast early November.
New Pre-Announcement Plays: New write up
Play Date: 10/20/2005
LLL (L-3 Communications--$80.86; -0.59; optionable): Intelligence, surveillance and recon systems. Potential split announcement 10-26-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 4-32-02 at $125.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lll.html
STATUS: Cup. LLL is working on a 7 week cup at the 50 day EMA (79.56) that is consolidating a nice July to early September move out of a 7 month base. May be a bit early for a split, but really like how LLL has formed up. Want to see that strong volume as LLL breaks higher from here.
Volume: 1.02M Avg Volume: 754.074K
BUY POINT: $81.65 Volume=1.1M Target=$91.95 Stop=$80.21
POSITION: LLL AP - Jan. $80c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lll.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/08/2005
RL (Ralph Lauren--$52.15; +0.49; optionable): Apparel. Forecast 11-4-05 before the market open.
BACKGROUND: No splits in Ralph's history (at least with his stock), but it is at a level where clothing makers tend to split and we have heard that the board is pleased with the stock performance and want more.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Decent volume swell Thursday as RL moved toward the breakout from its short pattern. Looks ready to make its move. To recap: Nice 8 week base sporting outstanding 4 to 0 accumulation has set the stage for the next breakout to a new all-time high. A market leader, retail sector or not, and it is showing excellent attributes. Money flow is surging, a good corroboration of the money flow. Relative strength is making the breakout ahead of the stock, a very bullish indication.
Volume: 856.8K Avg Volume: 855.361K
BUY POINT: $52.78 Volume=1.1M Target=$60.95 Stop=$50.44
POSITION: RL AJ - Jan. $50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rl.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/18/2005
ATVI (Activision--$20.67; -0.55; optionable): Multimedia and graphics software for games. Splits 4:3 on 10/25/05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atvi.html
After Hours: $20.57
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After the Wednesday move on low volume ATVI fell right back to the 50 day SMA (20.75) on even lower trade. Setting up well for the break higher from this neat little base. To recap: Neat little 6 week base has set up, testing the late July breakout and run higher from its 23 week cup with handle. Solid trade as it bounced higher last week and then backing off as it moved laterally this week, forming the handle to the base. May take another session or two of lateral movement, but when we see it break higher on a shot of above average volume we will be ready to enter the play.
Volume: 1.759M Avg Volume: 2.301M
BUY POINT: $21.05 Volume=3.4M Target=$25.25 Stop=$19.92
POSITION: AQV AD - Jan. $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atvi.html
Play Date: 10/05/2005
HOLX (Hologic--$52.54; -0.45; optionable): Medical appliances. Splits 2:1 on 12-1-2005
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holx.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Nice surge through the 18 day EMA (53.55) early Thursday on solid trade. We waited for it to make the test of that move, and it kept coming back all session. Still set up well to move off the 50 day EMA (50.98) as a good test of the breakout and rally up the 18 day EMA. Just being patient and letting it show us the move. Strong money flow is leading the way higher.
Volume: 442.251K Avg Volume: 350.992K
BUY POINT: $53.73 Volume=483K Target=$62.88 Stop=$50.91
POSITION: QHX LJ - Dec. $50c (52 delta) or QHX CJ - Mar. $50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/holx.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/10/2005
CHS (Chicos Fas--$37.65; -0.71; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Good move Wednesday, gave it back Thursday. On then off. All told it is still building the handle to its classic base. Just going to let it show us the move and then we move in. To recap: Nice, classic handle is forming to a 9 week double bottom. Used the 200 day SMA (32.04) on the right leg as support, undercutting the left leg from the August low. Positive 4:3 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers. Quiet pattern, ignored by the market. It is quietly setting up for a breakout to a new all-time high. Perennial leader that has set up for the next move.
Volume: 1.598M Avg Volume: 1.909M
BUY POINT: $38.75 Volume=2.9M Target=$46.45 Stop=$36.88
POSITION: CHS BG - Feb. $35c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chs.html
Play Date: 10/12/2005
GTK (Gtech Holdings--$31.6; -0.4; optionable): Lottery equipment and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gtk.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Volume looked good Wednesday as GTK moved up off the 50 day EMA (31.25), but it slipped right back down Thursday on low, below average volume. It has filled the early September gap higher that broke it out from a 17 month cup with handle base. Solid leader that just needs to show us the move.
Volume: 909.5K Avg Volume: 1.195M
BUY POINT: $32.05 Volume=1.7M Target=$37.95 Stop=$30.71
POSITION: GTK AZ - Jan. $32.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gtk.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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