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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: FLO; ADSK; TEVA; URBN; WIRE
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 10/22/2005
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$41.65; +0.61; optionable): Outsourced value added messaging
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
After Hours: $41.61
STATUS: Cup w/handle. JCOM started the breakout move Wednesday and then faded back to close the week. Nice move out of the 8 month base sporting solid 9 to 6 accumulation, and the test at the end of the week gives us a good entry point. Ready for a new all-time high. Earnings are out Monday before the open, and after that late week test we are looking for JCOM to rally and give us an entry point as it moves higher.
Volume: 592.376K Avg Volume: 565.459K
BUY POINT: $42.55 Volume=750K Target=$50.95 Stop=$40.11
POSITION: JQF CH - Mar. $40c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jcom.html
Play Date: 10/22/2005
HIBB (Hibbett Sporting Good--$24.51; -0.06; optionable): Sporting goods stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hibb.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Excellent volume Wednesday and Friday as HIBB rallied off the twin lows at the 200 day SMA (21.81) as HIBB looks for the breakout from its 11 week base. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the pattern shows solid buying as HIBB sets up for a breakout and run to a new all-time high. Tried the move Friday, but it is likely to take a couple more sessions to complete the base and then make the breakout. Showing a lot of like, however, so we want to be ready to move on it.
Volume: 537.439K Avg Volume: 407.947K
BUY POINT: $25.05 Volume=612K Target=$29.45 Stop=$23.45
POSITION: QQX AE - Jan. $25c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hibb.html
Play Date: 10/22/2005
RMD (Resmed--$38; +0.45; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmd.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Low volume continues as RMD works laterally along the 50 day EMA (36.95). Money flow is running higher and we expect RMD, a market leader with outstanding fundamental ratings, to follow the money higher and make us another nice gain as it did on its last run.
Volume: 476.5K Avg Volume: 532.129K
BUY POINT: $38.61 Volume=798K Target=$44.75 Stop=$36.88
POSITION: RMD AU - Jan. $37.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rmd.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 10/22/2005
BCSI (Blue Coat Systems--$45.43; +3.04; optionable): Internet security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcsi.html
After Hours: $46.05
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong volume Friday as BCSI started the breakout from a big, long 20 month pattern. Excellent 17 to 6 accumulation (17 up price weeks on rising volume to 6 down price weeks on rising volume) in the base shows net buying that sets the foundation for a breakout and rally. Strong money flow compliments the accumulation. Strong break higher with plenty of room to run. A top rated stock in fundamentals and technical pattern. Ready to step in as BCSI continues this move.
Volume: 586.033K Avg Volume: 362.071K
BUY POINT: $45.75 Volume=543K Target=$54.95 Stop=$42.55
POSITION: IYU AI - Jan. $45c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcsi.html
New Downside Play:
Play Date: 10/22/2005
ATK (Alliant Techsystems--$69.97; -0.64; optionable): Aerospace/defense products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atk.html
STATUS: Put. Peaked in August and has skidded lower since. It tanked below the 200 day SMA (71.48) two weeks back and then rebounded last week to the 18 day EMA (71.99). A few sessions bumping at that level it has started lower again. Money flow is diving lower ahead of price and we are looking for ATK to continue lower and landing us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 201.5K Avg Volume: 270.109K
BUY POINT: $69.86 Volume=270K Target=$67.85 Stop=$70.22
POSITION: ATK XN - Dec. $70p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atk.html
Continuing Leader Play:
Play Date: 10/19/2005
WBSN (Websense--$54.84; +1.03; optionable): Employee internet management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wbsn.html
STATUS: Cup. Moving higher Friday but unable to score any volume. Indeed, volume has been the weak link the past week as WBSN moved higher. Still like the look of it as it tries to build the right side of its base. If we see some more volume we will open a position and then take more after it forms a handle and breaks out again. To recap: Building the right side of its 8 month base, coming off a test of the 200 day SMA breakout (52.28) last week as it cleared resistance built over the last 5 weeks. Strong 7 to 4 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying in the base. A top rated stock as far as earnings and pattern. Looking to move in as it continues higher on a bit stronger volume.
Volume: 385.759K Avg Volume: 559.67K
BUY POINT: $54.88 Volume=832K Target=$63.45 Stop=$52.91
POSITION: DQH AK - Jan. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wbsn.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AGN: Forecast 10-26-05. No current play. May announce this week but it is starting a downtrend after the 50 day EMA breakdown earlier this month. Do not like to enter plays if they are not technically sound.
CLF: Forecast 11-8-05. No current play. Holding the 50 day EMA as it continues its lateral move. Good volume to end the week.
DVN: Forecast 11-2-05 before the open. Another stock that can still announce, but it is trending lower now and falling out of split range.
GG: Forecast 11-7-05. No current play. Needs to regain the 50 day EMA before we would consider it ahead of the forecast date. Again, don't like taking positions in a technically weak stock even if it does announce a split.
GYI: Forecast 10-20-05. No current play. Earnings helped gap GYI higher, but we will have to see how it pans out as the pattern is not great.
HAR: No split announced 10-19-05. Coming back to test the near support after strong earnings.
IMDC: Forecast 11-7-05
ISRG: Forecast 10-25-05
LLL: Forecast 10-26-05 before the open
LM: Forecast 10-25-05 before the open. No current play. If LM can move through 106.35 Monday we will look at some positions heading into the Tuesday morning announcement.
MRVL: Forecast 11-17-05 after the close
PGR: Forecast 11-9-05 after the close
RL: 11-4-05 before the open
SIE: Forecast 10-24-05 after the close. Looking to get a bit of volume Monday so we can move in.
SWN: Forecast 10-27-05 before the open. Actually holding the 50 day EMA unlike many other stocks. If it can bounce on volume it is on.
TECH: Forecast 10-27-05 before the open
UPL: Forecast 10-25-05 after the close. Another energy stock holding the 50 day EMA and showing volume as it does.
WFMI: Forecast early November. Excellent recovery.
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/08/2005
RL (Ralph Lauren--$52.37; +0.22; optionable): Apparel. Forecast 11-4-05 before the market open.
BACKGROUND: No splits in Ralph's history (at least with his stock), but it is at a level where clothing makers tend to split and we have heard that the board is pleased with the stock performance and want more.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong Thursday on volume and RL continued higher Friday on lower volume. Wanted to see more volume as RL moved toward the breakout. Super all around; just needs the trade. To recap: Nice 8 week base sporting outstanding 4 to 0 accumulation has set the stage for the next breakout to a new all-time high. A market leader, retail sector or not, and it is showing excellent attributes. Money flow is surging, a good corroboration of the money flow. Relative strength is making the breakout ahead of the stock, a very bullish indication. RL is a top rated stock in fundamentals and pattern.
Volume: 477.5K Avg Volume: 858.042K
BUY POINT: $52.78 Volume=1.1M Target=$60.95 Stop=$50.44
POSITION: RL AJ - Jan. $50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rl.html
Play Date: 10/18/2005
TECH (Techne--$55.96; +0.43; optionable): Biotechnology. Forecast for a possible split announcement 10-27-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 11-9-200 at $105. The one we are focusing on is the prior one, a 2:1 split announced 10-23-97 at $40. After the tech boom stocks are announcing at more sane levels.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tech.html
After Hours: $55.93
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Holding the 18 day EMA (55.52), trying to gain some strength as it moved off the 50 day EMA (54.46). Solid leader ready to move. Volume was near average Friday, and on some more trade we will be ready to move in ahead of the announcement. To recap: TECH surged in August, taking it to 58 on the move. It has spent the past 5 weeks moving laterally and back to the 50 day EMA to test the move and take a breather. Strong leader with money flow holding up well. May take a bit more time to set up but solid and just needs some volume as it makes the break higher from the 50 day.
Volume: 291.546K Avg Volume: 340.782K
BUY POINT: $56.21 Volume=510K Target=$63.95 Stop=$54.65
POSITION: TGQ AK - Jan. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tech.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/18/2005
ATVI (Activision--$21.2; +0.53; optionable): Multimedia and graphics software for games. Splits 4:3 on 10/25/05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atvi.html
After Hours: $21.19
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume is creeping higher, starting to build as ATVI starts to build for the breakout as well. Very pretty pattern; just needs to show us the breakaway move. To recap: Neat little 7 week base has set up, testing the late July breakout and run higher from its 23 week cup with handle. Solid trade as it bounced higher last week and then backing off as it moved laterally this week, forming the handle to the base. May take another session or two of lateral movement, but when we see it break higher on a shot of above average volume we will be ready to enter the play.
Volume: 2.042M Avg Volume: 2.322M
BUY POINT: New: $21.32 (orig. $21.05) Volume=3.4M Target=$25.25 Stop=$19.92
POSITION: AQV AD - Jan. $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atvi.html
Play Date: 10/05/2005
HOLX (Hologic--$54.11; +1.57; optionable): Medical appliances. Splits 2:1 on 12-1-2005
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holx.html
After Hours: $54.01
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Good move Friday though volume fell back below average Friday. Good enough to start a position, and we like this one so much we are going to look for more positions as it breaks through 55. To recap: Nice rally to the end of September and then sold with the market to start October. Held the 50 day EMA (51.10) two weeks back and late last week started showing better volume as it started higher. Market leader and ready for more. Strong money flow is leading the way higher.
Volume: 354.451K Avg Volume: 359.174K
BUY POINT: New: $55.12 (orig. $54.61) Volume=483K Target=$63.75 Stop=$50.91
POSITION: QHX LJ - Dec. $50c (52 delta) or QHX CJ - Mar. $50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/holx.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/10/2005
CHS (Chicos Fas--$39.07; +1.42; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Another good price move Friday but with volume holding below average again, we held off moving in. Given the lack of trade we may very well see a test back toward 38 to set up the next move. Still a super pattern from a top-rated market leader. To recap: Nice, classic handle is forming to a 11 week double bottom. Used the 200 day SMA (32.11) on the right leg as support, undercutting the left leg from the August low. Positive 4:3 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers. Quiet pattern, ignored by the market. It is quietly setting up for a breakout to a new all-time high. Perennial leader that has set up for the next move.
Volume: 1.528M Avg Volume: 1.93M
BUY POINT: New: Test 38.50ish, then $38.75 Volume=2.9M Target=$46.45 Stop=$36.88
POSITION: CHS BG - Feb. $35c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chs.html
Play Date: 10/20/2005
CMTL (Comtech Telecom--$41.04; +0.38; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmtl.html
After Hours: $40.99
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Gapped higher Friday but volume faded to average and CMTL gave back most of its move. Still a solid stock and pattern, and looking for a continued move higher this week that we can take advantage of. To recap: CMTL broke out from a 15 week double bottom with handle base in mid-September and rallied to 43. In the October selling it has tested the 50 day EMA (38.30), on lower volume, making a small double bottom at that level. Strong volume Thursday as it jumped through the short term MA. Strong money flow is surging higher ahead of price. Relative strength is moving to a new breakout. Ready to move into this strong leader as it continues the run higher.
Volume: 540.38K Avg Volume: 467.721K
BUY POINT: $41.05 Volume=694K Target=$48.95 Stop=$39.65
POSITION: CQH AH - Jan. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmtl.html
Play Date: 10/15/2005
CRDN (Ceradyne--$37.5; +0.48; optionable): Industrial equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crdn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout test. Strong breakout in mid-September from a 9.5 month base. During the heavy market selling in October, CRDN moved laterally, testing and holding the 18 day EMA (36.94) as it did. Very strong action in a weak market. Top rated stock in the market with outstanding fundamentals (sales and earnings growth) to go along with its strong pattern. Money flow is moving higher and relative strength is ready for another breakout to a new high along with CRDN itself.
Volume: 363.685K Avg Volume: 554.833K
BUY POINT: $38.12 Volume=800K Target=$44.95 Stop=$36.22
POSITION: AUE CG - Mar. $35c (65 delta) or AUE CH - Mar. $40c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/crdn.html
Play Date: 10/08/2005
UNH (Unitedhealth Group--$57.14; +0.03; optionable): Health care plans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/unh.html
After Hours: $57.22
STATUS: Test breakout. UNH is ready to go again with a nice tight doji that tapped the 10 day EMA (56.57) on the low and rebounded on strong volume. Broke out in late September from an 11 week double bottom with handle. Rallied and then tested the 50 day EMA (54.45) in the October selling. Held and bounced right back up. This test during the Thursday market selling and doji Friday sets it up for the next breakout move.
Volume: 6.069M Avg Volume: 5.126M
BUY POINT: New: $57.88 (orig. $56.32) Volume=6M Target=$64.95 Stop=$56.15
POSITION: UHB AK - Jan. $55c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/unh.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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