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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AH; AQNT; BABY; CRM; GVHR; HAE; HOM; IRIS; MACR; SMSC; SYKE; VRTX; TRI
Strong plays: All look great tonight.
1) GPN: Lots of momentum and can rip off a lot of yardage in a hurry.
2) NTES: Showing renewed upside buying.
3) SWN: Energy stock ready to rebound off the 50 day EMA.
4) DRRX: Volume was up as it showed a doji in the handle.
5) NTRI: Ready to resume the move.
6) WRES: Volume is up as it heads off the 18 day EMA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 10/24/2005
GPN (Global Payments--$84.22; +0.32; optionable): Global payment services. Splits 2:1 on 10-31-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpn.html
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. A stock with a lot of momentum as it moves into its stock split. NTES jumped higher last Wednesday and has since pulled back to test the move, holding above the 10 day EMA (82.55) as it does. Volume was up Monday as GPN posted a modest gain. When this stock toes it takes off in a hurry. Ready to move in as GPN continues its pre-split run.
Volume: 464.1K Avg Volume: 411.879K
BUY POINT: $84.68 Volume=500K Target=$94.95 Stop=$82.25
POSITION: GPN BQ - Feb. $85c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gpn.html
Play Date: 10/24/2005
HHH (Internet Hldrs Trust--$61.72; +0.66; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hhh.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume is jumping on the upside sessions (last Wednesday on GOOG earnings, Monday on BCSI, et al), showing heavy accumulation on those days. The current 11 week pattern is acting as the handle to a much larger 11 month pattern. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation is setting up the move. Like the strong volume and looking to enter as it makes the breakout move. Using options to better leverage our gain.
Volume: 769.9K Avg Volume: 380.994K
BUY POINT: $62.22 Volume=571K Target=$71.55 Stop=$60.55
POSITION: HHH AL - Jan. $60c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hhh.html
Play Date: 10/24/2005
NTES (Netease.com--$82.40; +6.30; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntes.html
After Hours: $81.96
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Taking another look at NTES. It came down to test the 50 day EMA (78.34) after the first leg of the October selling but then slipped below that support last week on above average volume. Monday it rode the technology wave higher, vaulting back through that level on even stronger above average volume. NTES broke out of a 23 month base in August with a big gap and rallied to 95. It sold off in the October selling, held support, and is now rebounding. Looking to catch the move back up but want to see volume continue.
Volume: 1.724M Avg Volume: 1.267M
BUY POINT: $82.78 Volume=1.4M Target=$95.95 Stop=$79.68
POSITION: NGQ AP - Jan. $80c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntes.html
Play Date: 10/24/2005
PEET (Peets Coffee--$33.22; +0.51; optionable): Specialty coffee roaster and marketer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/peet.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Forming a nice, low volume handle the past week to its 13 week cup with handle base sporting solid 3 to 1 accumulation. Nice run from May to July and then the current base. Setting up the breakout and looking for a new all-time high. Top rated stock in fundamentals as well as pattern.
Volume: 84.12K Avg Volume: 189.245K
BUY POINT: $33.49 Volume=284K Target=$38.95 Stop=$32.15
POSITION: UKQ CF - Mar. $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/peet.html
Play Date: 10/24/2005
SWN (Southwestern Energy--$68.87; +4.48; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Forecast to announce a split 10-27-05 after the close
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-11-05 at $67.50. Yes, it was very recent but right back at that level.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swn.html
After Hours: $68.70
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After a 30 point surge in September SWN sold off in the October selling, but unlike many energy stocks it managed to hold important support at the 50 day EMA (63.60). Volume dried up but then started higher the past week. Monday it bounced back above average as SWN jumped off the 50 day. This stock can tear off the real estate in big chunks and we are looking to catch the momentum as it rebounds off this key support.
Volume: 2.968M Avg Volume: 2.152M
BUY POINT: $69.65 Volume=2.6M Target=$83.95 Stop=$67.35
POSITION: SWN CN - Mar. $70c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/swn.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 10/12/2005
AMLN (Amylin Pharmaceuticals--$36.48; +0.43; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amln.html
After Hours: $36.39
STATUS: Breakout test. AMLN is still moving laterally in a tight range above the 10 day EMA (35.85), moving on low, below average volume. Still setting up for the next break higher. To recap: AMLN is testing the 10 day EMA the past week, easing back to that level on low volume. This is the second test of the short term moving averages after a big gap higher in late August. Strong stocks ignore the market, using selling to consolidate. That is what AMLN is doing as it rallies up the 10 and 18 day EMA. Money flow continues to move higher and relative strength is ready for another breakout. Strong stock ready for more.
Volume: 2.034M Avg Volume: 3.693M
BUY POINT: New: $36.55 (orig. $35.55) Volume=4M Target=$42.25 Stop=$35.04
POSITION: AQM AG - Jan. $35c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/amln.html
Play Date: 10/10/2005
BEAV (BE Aerospace--$17.85; +0.34; optionable): Commercial aircraft and business jet interior products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/beav.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Teasing us with low volume as it taps at the breakout point. Still waiting for the volume to surge again as it makes the breakout point. To recap: Nice11 week base looking for a 4 year high as it continues higher. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows solid buying in the base, preparing BEAV for the breakout. Strong surge two weeks back on volume as BEAV broke higher, and it is now forming a nice low volume handle. Strong money flow is moving higher and relative strength broke out on the move. Solid leader with great sales, great revenues, and a great technical pattern.
Volume: 276.666K Avg Volume: 647.829K
BUY POINT: $18.05 Volume=950K Target=$21.68 Stop=$16.85
POSITION: BQV AW - Jan. $17.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/beav.html
Play Date: 10/01/2005
DRRX (Durect--$6.91; +0.01; no options): Drug delivery platforms
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drrx.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume edged up toward average Monday as DRRX continues forming the nice tight handle to its short but sweet base. Looks ready this week. To recap: Has formed a sweet little 6 week double bottom with handle base on top of the 50 day EMA (6.41). DRRX broke out from a long 24 month trading range in June, rallying up the 18 day EMA (6.71) into July. Another 6 week flat base led to an early September breakout. Another test took it back to the 50 day EMA two weeks ago and it is now starting to rebound to continue the breakout move, forming a short double bottom with handle as it does. Volume has been low and below average since moving off the 50 day EMA and is now starting higher as it makes its move. Just what you want to see.
Volume: 344.788K Avg Volume: 361.605K
BUY POINT: $6.98 Volume=500K Target=$8.38 Stop=$6.49
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/drrx.html
Play Date: 10/18/2005
NTRI (Nutrisystem--$28.19; +0.62; optionable): Weight loss systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntri.html
After Hours: $28.19
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Volume moved up toward average Monday as NTIR eased higher off the 18 day EMA (27.56). Getting ready to follow the strong money flow higher. To recap: Broke out in early October, making us a nice return. It then sold back to the 18 day EMA during the market selling, and has held that key near support, moving laterally in a narrow range the past week on very low volume. That has consolidated the breakout, and now NTRI looks ready to rebound and resume its breakout run.
Volume: 656.187K Avg Volume: 789.855K
BUY POINT: $29.05 Volume=1.2M Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.39
POSITION: NSI CF - Mar. $30c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntri.html
Play Date: 10/06/2005
NVDA (Nvidia--$32.81; +0.87; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
After Hours: $32.67
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. NVDA jumped higher Monday off the 50 day EMA (31.59) but volume did not move with it. Looks ready to make the move; it is a leader in the chip field. Just needs to show the volume and shake off the TXN news (but they are in different chip sectors). To recap: NVDA continues to test the 50 day EMA, moving laterally at that level for the past week on low volume. It broke out of a 24 week triangle in early September and rallied smartly to 36. It has made a low volume test in the October selling, holding at key support. Looking for a volume move back up as NVDA clears the 18 day EMA. With the semiconductors looking better, NVDA is a prime candidate to continue its breakout move.
Volume: 2.421M Avg Volume: 4.703M
BUY POINT: $32.89 Volume=6.5M Target=$40.45 Stop=$31.38
POSITION: UVA AT - Jan. $32.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvda.html
Play Date: 10/22/2005
NWRE (Neoware--$17.73; +0.73; optionable): Business customer software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nwre.html
After Hours: $17.70
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher Monday on strong volume, heading for the breakout. Relative strength is breaking out already, a very bullish indication. To recap: NWRE is forming the handle to a big 26 month base, working laterally this month above the 18 day EMA (16.2516.41), using that level to shakeout the last sellers and set up the breakout move. Strong 24 to 17 accumulation in the pattern shows plenty of buying as NWRE sets up a breakout for a new all-time high. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength broke out ahead of the price.
Volume: 654.033K Avg Volume: 324.4K
BUY POINT: $18.24 Volume=487K Target=$21.95 Stop=$16.96
POSITION: QQA AW - Jan. $17.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nwre.html
Play Date: 10/19/2005
WBSN (Websense--$56.03; +1.19; optionable): Employee internet management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wbsn.html
After Hours: $56.04
STATUS: Cup. Moving well Monday, but no volume to back up the move. Looks good but need more trade. To recap: Building the right side of its 8 month base, coming off a test of the 200 day SMA breakout (52.33) last week as it cleared resistance built over the last 5 weeks. Strong 7 to 4 accumulation (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying in the base. A top rated stock as far as earnings and pattern. Looking to move in as it continues higher on a bit stronger volume.
Volume: 345.758K Avg Volume: 559.67K
BUY POINT: New: $56.25 (orig. $54.88) Volume=832K Target=$63.45 Stop=$52.91
POSITION: DQH AK - Jan. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wbsn.html
Play Date: 10/19/2005
WRES (Warren Resources--$15.48; +0.91; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wres.html
After Hours: $15.43
STATUS: Breakout test. Unlike many oil and gas stocks, WRES did not implode in the early October selling. Instead it tested its 50 day EMA (13.51) two weeks back on the intraday low and rebounded sharply. It has spent the past week moving laterally above the 18 day EMA. It is ready to make the move higher. To recap: WRES broke out from a 6.5 month cup with handle in mid-September and surged higher. A new issue in December 2004, this was its first base. Nice base, breakout and test. Volume started back up Monday as WRES moved off the 18 day EMA. Looks ready to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 451.121K Avg Volume: 406.827K
BUY POINT: $15.68 Volume=450K Target=$18.85 Stop=$14.58
POSITION: QQW BC - Feb. $15c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wres.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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