stock watch, stock split

Begin Part 4 of 4

NNS (Newport News Shipbuilding--$71.10; -0.15; optionable): Aerospace/Defense. Being acquired by NOC, so not a split candidate.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nns.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that NNS has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting 5-18-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: Following the pattern of NOC, which is making a stock and cash offer for NNS. Conequently, we have seen a test of the breakout back to the 50 day MVA (67.93), a solid bounce, and then a 'hanging man' doji. As indicated, this doji usually indicates a strong move has run out of steam. From here, we will see how NNS settles out. We are no longer watching for a split announcement, but before all of this NNS had been holding nicely at its 18 day MVA (70.10), so we will see if it can continue to hold, catch its breath and mount a more stable run up. We will be watching NOC. The recent high is 73.85. Target: 85.
BUY POINT: After holding here: A move over 72 on increased volume. Stop: 69.
POSITION: Stock and/or February $70 calls to buy (NNS BN).

RE (Everest Re Group--$71.67; -0.21; optionable): Insurance. No announcement yet, and hammered on earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/re.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that RE has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-23-01 at which time no authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: After falling back hard to the 50 day MVA (68.30) Tuesday, RE has pulled up to the range of the short-term MVA's on steadily decreasing volume. Not much of a pattern, and we are dropping for now.

SLM (USA Education--$83.20; -0.05; optionable): We did not get the announcement.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slm.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 7:2 split on 11-21-97 at a price of $132. The annual shareholder meeting 5-10-01 at which time additional shares were authorized.
STATUS: Another test of the 50 day today. The stock gapped down to open over the 50 day MVA (81.65, with its up trendline connecting August 2000 and May 2001 lows), and pushed up to test the 18 day (83.36; 10 day at 83.52) before pulling back to close as volume rose to 544,200 (average 805,900). Despite the increase today, volume has remained light overall as SLM continues to pull back from the early October breakout high of 86.70 (from a 6-week double bottom begun in mid-August). Not a concern in this type of consolidation, but we will need to see strong volume for a serious move. If the stock can hold here, we will continue to watch for strength on a move up to the high. Target on a breakout: 100.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move to 85 on increased, above average volume. Stop: 81.50. Breakout: 86.82 on above average volume. Stop: 82.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $80 calls to buy (SLM AP).

STJ (Saint Jude Medical--$74.00; +0.64; optionable): Health Services. Forecast to announce a split on 10-18-01 in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
BACKGROUND: STJ last split its stock 3:2 in late 1995 at a price of approximately $60. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Broke out recently from its double bottom with handle, and after hitting a high of 75.37, has pulled back on decreasing volume to test the move and the 10 day MVA (72.91). STJ made a weak push up from that level today, but after hitting a high of 74.75, pulled back to close on decreasing volume of 410,700 (average 631,100). From here we may see another pullback, and are still looking for support to hold, and for a volume surge to carry the next move up. Good money flow. Target remains 85.
BUY POINT: From here, a move over 75.50 on above average volume. Stop: 72.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $70 calls to buy (STJ AN).

THC (Tenet Health Care--$58.50; -0.29; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thc.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a stock split in September 1991 in the $45 range. No additional shares will be authorized at the annual shareholder meeting, but the company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: THC had been behaving pretty well as it moved in its uptrend, but four pushes up from the short-term MVA's (18 day at 59.96, and the last move was weak), the sold back from the recent high (62.78), falling hard on huge volume. Today THC tapped through the 50 day MVA (58) before it caught itself and pulled up to close with a loose doji. Volume fell a bit (down to 4.89 million, average 1.94 million), but overall, this selling is still the strongest volume we have seen since the early July breakout. The most recent test of the 50 day occurred when the markets re-opened, and it took a few sessions, but THC collected itself and then went on to clear 62, so we may see a recovery. But, with this huge volume, we will have to see it hold here and mount a solid move back up over the short-term MVA's before we will consider new positions. It may take a few sessions, if it happens.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: After holding here, a strong move back up over the 10 day MVA (60.18). Stop: 57.50.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or February $55 calls to buy (THC BK).

WHR (Whirlpool--$60.98; +0.76; optionable): Consumer Durables: Appliances.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/whr.html
STATUS: WHR has tried to make a recovery, but is foundering below its 50 day MVA. We will keep an eye on it, but we are dropping for now.

POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

ATK (Alliant Techsystems--$87.70; +1.70; optionable): Aerospace/Defense. Split 3:2 effective 9-10-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atk.html
STATUS: Volume picked up to 273,200 today (average 308,600) as ATK made a solid push up off the 18 day MVA (85.09) on its earnings, and took out our aggressive buy point. With the weak volume and the pull off of the intraday high at 89, we could see a bit more consolidation over the short-term MVA's. ATK made a great run and now that it has had a chance to rest and digest the gains, we are watching for the next strong run up. ATK is becoming a leader and regular splitter and we are looking for more. Target on the next run: 105.
PLAY: From here (aggressive) or after consolidating: A move over 89 on increased, above average volume, with stock and/or February $80 calls to buy (ATK BP).

CEFT (Concord EFS--$29.29; +0.58; optionable): Split 2:1 effective 10-01-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceft.html
STATUS: CEFT hit out our buy point as it pulled over the left side highs today (29), but we had been looking for a pullback and handle consolidation first. Although volume increased to 4.26 million (average 3.24 million), it was still lighter than we wanted to see, and given the recent weak pattern, this move did not trigger a play. CEFT has been making a solid post-split recovery, forming a brief, v-shaped cup with a rough handle over the 10 day MVA (28.09). The stock was drifting up in the handle, moving on generally below average volume, and running up against the resistance of the late July-August consolidation (high at 29). As we have discussed before, we will sometimes play strong moves (and today was not quite strong enough) out of weaker handles (drifting up rather than pulling back), but we exercise care with stops, as these breakouts can quickly fail. With today's move, we will look for the momentum to continue, and for stronger volume to trigger the play. Relative strength is up and money flow looks strong. Target: 35.
PLAY: Aggressive momentum: From here, a move over 29.60 on volume of 4.8 million. Stop: 27.50. After a dip back and a better handle consolidation, a move to 29.46 on volume of 4.8 million. Stop: 27.25. Stock and/or December $25 calls to buy (EQF LE).

JNJ (Johnson & Johnson--$58.97; -0.29; optionable): Drugs. Split 2:1 June 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnj.html
STATUS: Topping signs. After steadily moving up on steadily decreasing volume, JNJ has slowed and may now be ready to pullback a bit and take a breather. The stock tapped down to the 10 day MVA (57.98, prior double tops at 57-58) before pulling up to close with a loose doji just under the recent highs as volume fell to 6.09 million (average 8.02 million). With the close off the high Wednesday and the hanging man doji today, we may finally see the pullback we have been watching for. Looking for the 10 day to provide support for the next run. Target: 64.
PLAY: After a lower volume consolidation in the 57-58 range: A move over 59 on increased, above average volume, with stock and/or January $55 calls to buy (JNJ AK). Stop: 55.

KMP (Kinder Morgan--$36.60; 0.00; optionable): Energy. Split 2:1 effective Sept. 4.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmp.html
STATUS: Sold back hard but support seems to be holding. The recent moves up (intraday highs approaching 39) have been on weaker volume than we have seen on the recent selling, so we have been watching carefully for a pullback, and looking to see if KMP could catch support at the short-term MVA's (10 day at 37). The pullback kicked in Wednesday, as the stock sold back hard on sharply increased volume, but managed a small intraday bounce off of the 50 day (35.89) at the close. Today volume fell to 239,300 (average 188,400) as the stock made another intraday bounce off the 50 day, and closed with a loose doji at the 18 day. Holding support is key, so we will see if KMP can recover. If it can hold here, we will look at an upside play on a stronger move up, but with the recovery price-volume action, it could take a bit of time to settle out. A strong breach of support could trigger a quick put play, but we are not looking at that move Friday.
BUY POINT: After holding support here and settling down from recent volatility, a strong move over 37.50 on increased, above average volume, with stock and/or December $35 calls to buy (KMP LG). Stop: 35.50.

PDLI (Protein Design Labs--$34.17; +3.05; optionable): Biotechnology. Splits 2:1 effective October 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdli.html
STATUS: Broke out today! After struggling with low volume and resistance at the 200 day MVA (29.59) and down trendline connecting the November and June closing highs (currently 28.50) for most of the past two weeks, PDLI made a decent move up over those levels yesterday, and took off today as volume increased sharply to 3.81 million (average 1.96 million). A great move that took the stock past our 5% "breakout buy" range (intraday high 34.26). We don't like to chase a stock past that 5%, so from here, we will ride existing positions, carefully protecting profits as we eye the initial target of 35. If PDLI can continue this run, it could make some nice gains as it moves up the right side of the current 14-week cup (dating back to late July, highs at 45 - late 2000 highs at 70).
PLAY: After a lower volume pullback (and possible consolidation) holds 32.50, a move back up on increased volume, with stock and/or November $25 calls to buy (PQI KE). Stop: 31.

WFMI (Whole Foods--$35.99; +0.35; optionable): Grocery Stores. Split 2:1 June 5.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: The stock has been moving in a range roughly from 32 to 36 since its big breakout move in July, and was pulling into a breakout test before the attacks. That test turned into stronger selling when the markets reopened, but WFMI quickly found a bottom over 29 and has pulled into a small cup. Today, WFMI again cleared the left side high (35.87) of the cup as volume increased to 742,400 (average 728,800), hitting Tuesday's high of 36.25 before pulling back. From here, we are looking for the momentum to continue into the breakout move, or for the stock to form a handle. WFMI has made a solid move back up from the 50 day MVA (then 31.80, earlier this month), so it may need to rest and consolidate a bit first. With a pullback, we would look for the 10 day MVA (34.62) to provide support as the stock forms the handle. Still strong, and on a solid move over the high we will look at 41.50 as a target.
PLAY: Breakout: From here or after a lower volume pullback that holds the 35 range, 36.37 on volume of 1.1 million, with stock and/or February $30 calls to buy (FMQ BF). Stop: 34.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

stock watch
stock split