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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: DNA; SWN; UPL; WIRE
New Pre-Split Play:
Play Date: 10/25/2005
FAST (Fastenal Company--$70.08; +1.04; optionable): Home improvement stores. Splits 2:1 on 11-11-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fast.html
After Hours: $70.05
STATUS: Test breakout. FAST exploded higher two weeks back, gapping out of a 9 week double bottom with handle base. It rallied up the 10 day EMA (67.76) to 70, tested Thursday through Monday, and then started back up Tuesday. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. Has the momentum and looking to get in on it as FAST continues the breakout move.
Volume: 647.353K Avg Volume: 611.88K
BUY POINT: $70.32 Volume=918K Target=$75 Stop=$68.22
POSITION: FQA BN - Feb. $70c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fast.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 10/25/2005
HYSL (Hyperion Solutions--$47.67; -0.35; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hysl.html
After Hours: $47.54
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Taking another look at HYSL after it dumped lower last Friday on good earnings. It quickly recovered, however, and resumed the handle to its 8 month base. Strong 11 to 6 accumulation in the pattern shows plenty of buying, and the quick recovery from the earnings news shows there is a lot of support for this stock. Going to be patient and let it show us the breakout move. Strong market leader that is loading the gun.
Volume: 1.071M Avg Volume: 604.361K
BUY POINT: $49.55 Volume=874K Target=$58.55 Stop=$47.22
POSITION: WQE BJ - Feb. $50c (48 delta) or WQE BI - Feb. $45c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hysl.html
Continuing Leader Play:
Play Date: 10/24/2005
NTES (Netease.com--$81.39; -1.01; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntes.html
After Hours: $80.40
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Tried to make the move Tuesday, but below average volume and it faded back to post a loss. Still holding the 18 day EMA (80.78), and we are looking for a continued rebound after this nice test that took some of the air out of the Monday move and set up the next move better. To recap: NTES came down to test the 50 day EMA (78.46) after the first leg of the October selling but then slipped below that support last week on above average volume. Monday it rode the technology wave higher, vaulting back through that level on even stronger above average volume. NTES broke out of a 23 month base in August with a big gap and rallied to 95. It sold off in the October selling, held support, and is now rebounding. Looking to catch the move back up but want to see volume continue.
Volume: 1.051M Avg Volume: 1.267M
BUY POINT: $82.78 Volume=1.4M Target=$95.95 Stop=$79.68
POSITION: NGQ AP - Jan. $80c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ntes.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AGN: Forecast 10-26-05. No current play. May announce this week but it is starting a downtrend after the 50 day EMA breakdown earlier this month. Do not like to enter plays if they are not technically sound.
CLF: Forecast 11-8-05. No current play. Shaping back up here and will see how it tests this move and then consider a new entry point.
DVN: Forecast 11-2-05 before the open. Another stock that can still announce, but it is trending lower now and falling out of split range as it struggles to get back over the 50 day EMA.
GG: Forecast 11-7-05. No current play. Rallied back over the 50 day EMA, but don't like the gap higher and then the close for no gain. Will let it set back up and see if it gives us an entry point for the next report.
HAR: No split announced 10-19-05. Tapped the 10 day EMA on the low and recovered. Setting up for the next move.
IMDC: Forecast 11-7-05
ISRG: Forecast 10-25-05. No split but exploded higher after hours on a strong earnings report. Twenty points higher.
LLL: Forecast 10-26-05 before the open. Didn't really give us much to work with going into the earnings.
LM: Forecast 10-25-05 before the open. No current play. Great earnings but it was hammered on the results.
MRVL: Forecast 11-17-05 after the close
PGR: Forecast 11-9-05 after the close
RL: 11-4-05 before the open
SIE: Forecast 10-24-05 after the close. Never gave us a volume move and just as well as SIE sold off hard on the earnings.
SWN: Forecast 10-27-05 before the open. Moved in as it gapped higher today, and it announced a split after hours ahead of schedule. Nice move after hours on the news.
TECH: Forecast 10-27-05 before the open
UPL: Forecast 10-25-05 after the close. No split announcement but a solid round of earnings.
WFMI: Forecast early November. Excellent recovery continues.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/25/2005
APC (Anadarko Petroleum--$91.90; +2.09; optionable): Independent oil and gas. Forecast to announce a split 10-27-05 before the open.
BACKGROUND: Announced its only 2:1 split on 4-21-98 at $72
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apc.html
After Hours: $91.90
STATUS: APC gapped back above its 50 day EMA (90.33) Tuesday, moving on very strong, above average volume after two below average volume sessions. It fell below the 50 day early in October and had one heck of a time recovering. It did the deed Tuesday, and just in time to get it in decent position for an announcement Thursday morning. Looking to move in as it continues higher on solid trade.
Volume: 3.492M Avg Volume: 2.311M
BUY POINT: $92.45 Volume=2.4M Target=$102.95 Stop=$90.11
POSITION: APC AR - Jan. $90c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/apc.html
Play Date: 10/25/2005
GENZ (Genzyme--$71.53; -0.19; optionable): Biotechnology. No announcement on 10-18 w/earnings but forming a solid pattern.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-25-01 at $101.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
After Hours: $71.53
STATUS: Double bottom. GENZ is working on an 11 week double bottom, coming off the second low early this month. It is right below the 'hump' near 74, but showing solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) and strong money flow leading the way higher. Volume was up Tuesday, and if it shows more volume on a resumption of the move we will look at starting a position. Very nice swell in volume the past week as GENZ worked along the 50 day EMA.
Volume: 2.372M Avg Volume: 2.33M
BUY POINT: $72.89 Volume=4M Target=$83.78 Stop=$69.69
POSITION: GZQ AN - Jan. $70c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/genz.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
New buy point on this test:
Play Date: 10/13/2005
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Product Dev.--$62.02; -0.34; optionable): Medical labs. No announcement with earnings earlier this month. Researching next date but a great entry point shaping up.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-16-01 at $49.60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. PPDI gapped higher 10-18, moving out of a 12 week flat base that formed over the 50 day EMA (57.65). Strong move on strong volume that is now being tested on lower, below average trade, easing back toward the 10 day EMA (60.79). It has held at 61.35 on the lows the last two sessions, and that indicates to us it is just about ready to resume the breakout move. Strong leader making a great breakout test.
Volume: 328.918K Avg Volume: 349.003K
BUY POINT: $62.55 Volume=556K Target=$71.95 Stop=$60.55
POSITION: PJQ AL - Jan. $60c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ppdi.html
Play Date: 10/08/2005
RL (Ralph Lauren--$51.92; -1.30; optionable): Apparel. Forecast 11-4-05 before the market open.
BACKGROUND: No splits in Ralph's history (at least with his stock), but it is at a level where clothing makers tend to split and we have heard that the board is pleased with the stock performance and want more.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Tried the move Monday but no volume. Tuesday RL was back to the 10 day EMA (51.72) on rising, above average volume. Some distribution but still in the nice pattern and set to make the move. To recap: Nice 10 week base sporting outstanding 4 to 0 accumulation has set the stage for the next breakout to a new all-time high. A market leader, retail sector or not, and it is showing excellent attributes. Money flow is surging, a good corroboration of the money flow. Relative strength is making the breakout ahead of the stock, a very bullish indication. RL is a top rated stock in fundamentals and pattern.
Volume: 903.6K Avg Volume: 860.328K
BUY POINT: $52.78 Volume=1.1M Target=$60.95 Stop=$50.44
POSITION: RL AJ - Jan. $50c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rl.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/10/2005
CHS (Chicos Fas--$38.64; -0.7; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Fell back to the 10 day EMA (38.10) on continued low, below average volume, working on the handle some more. Very nice pattern, still ready to give the break higher. To recap: Nice, classic handle is forming to a 11 week double bottom. Used the 200 day SMA (32.25) on the right leg as support, undercutting the left leg from the August low. Positive 4:3 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers. Quiet pattern, ignored by the market. It is quietly setting up for a breakout to a new all-time high. Perennial leader that has set up for the next move.
Volume: 1.42M Avg Volume: 1.947M
BUY POINT: $38.75 Volume=2.9M Target=$46.45 Stop=$36.88
POSITION: CHS BG - Feb. $35c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chs.html
Play Date: 10/20/2005
CMTL (Comtech Telecom--$41.48; -0.15; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmtl.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Very nice lateral move on low volume here, tapping the 10 day EMA (40.60) on the low and rebounding. It has set up the move. To recap: CMTL broke out from a 15 week double bottom with handle base in mid-September and rallied to 43. In the October selling it has tested the 50 day EMA (38.55), on lower volume, making a small double bottom at that level. Strong volume Thursday as it jumped through the short term MA. Strong money flow is surging higher ahead of price. Relative strength is moving to a new breakout. Ready to move into this strong leader as it continues the run higher.
Volume: 327.561K Avg Volume: 474.189K
BUY POINT: $41.05 Volume=694K Target=$48.95 Stop=$39.65
POSITION: CQH AH - Jan. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmtl.html
Play Date: 10/22/2005
HIBB (Hibbett Sporting Good--$25.41; -0.18; optionable): Sporting goods stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hibb.html
After Hours: $24.82
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong price move Monday, but no volume and then holding steady Tuesday as the market struggled. Like how it held its gains and looks ready to continue higher. To recap: Excellent volume Wednesday and Friday as HIBB rallied off the twin lows at the 200 day SMA (21.89) as HIBB looks for the breakout from its 11 week base. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the pattern shows solid buying as HIBB sets up for a breakout and run to a new all-time high. Just need to see the volume return.
Volume: 407.28K Avg Volume: 409.646K
BUY POINT: New: $25.62 (orig. $25.05) Volume=612K Target=$29.45 Stop=$23.45
POSITION: QQX AE - Jan. $25c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hibb.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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