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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AH; BABY; BBBB; BCSI; LRCX; NVDA; NWRE; SYKE; TWGP; REDF
Strong plays:
1) CWTR: Nice move off of double bottom
2) STJ: Has made the test and ready to move higher.
3) GENZ: Starting to show the volume.
4) MACR: Excellent handle is setting up the break higher.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 10/31/2005
CWTR (Coldwater Creek--$26.99; +2.91; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cwtr.html
After Hours: $27
STATUS: Double bottom. Strong volume Monday as CWTR moved off the October low, forming the second leg in its 9 week pattern that used the important 200 day SMA (24.42) as support. That is the point the institutions either buy it or get rid of it, and the action we see along that level indicates they are keeping it and buying more. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price as CWTR sets up for a run at another new all-time high. Nice double bottom action and we are looking to start a position as it continues the move higher. May show a bit of weakness after a strong move, but if it then continues higher through the buy point it has shown the strength of the move. A strong move will put it right back at its split announcement price.
Volume: 1.576M Avg Volume: 707.358K
BUY POINT: $27.32 Volume=850K Target=$31.88 Stop=$25.87
POSITION: UCJ DE - Apr. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cwtr.html
Play Date: 10/31/2005
FLR (Fluor Corp.--$63.60; +1.09; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flr.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Nice 9 month base has formed using the 200 day SMA (58.68) as support for the periodic higher lows as FLR makes a series of higher bottoms below a constant top between 64 and 65. That builds pressure from below as each step lower weeds out sellers and shows more buyers as they jump on board. Strong 11 to 5 accumulation (11 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume) is setting FLR up for the breakout. Nice relative strength is already breaking out ahead of price, a very bullish indication for the stock to breakout as well. Nice set up and letting it show us the breakout.
Volume: 645.9K Avg Volume: 724.295K
BUY POINT: $64.65 Volume=1.1M Target=$74.45 Stop=$62.25
POSITION: FLR DM - Apr. $65c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/flr.html
Play Date: 10/31/2005
STJ (St. Jude Medical--$48.07; +0.89; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
After Hours: $48
STATUS: Test breakout/double bottom w/handle. A very strong market leader that bolted higher two weeks back, moving out of a nicely formed 11 week double bottom base that was setting up a move to a new all-time high. A nice low volume test the past week held the 18 day EMA (47.27), shaking out the last sellers and setting up the next move. This is basically a handle to the nice pattern that formed along the 50 day EMA (46.42). Strong stock with solid 5 to 3 accumulation that has set the stage for a breakout and rally higher. Strong money flow and relative strength ready to breakout again.
Volume: 2.155M Avg Volume: 2.056M
BUY POINT: $48.35 Volume=2.2M Target=$54.95 Stop=$47.11
POSITION: STJ AI - Jan. $45c (74 delta) or STJ DJ - Apr. $50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stj.html
Play Date: 10/31/2005
TV (Grupo Televisa--$73.10; +0.90; optionable): Spanish language television programs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tv.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume jumped Monday as TV headed toward the breakout form a 6 week base that formed on the heals of a 25 week cup with handle base. Strong money flow is breaking higher ahead of price and relative strength is making the move as well. Solid 2 to 0 accumulation in the short base (showing tremendous volume the past 6 weeks) is a good compliment to that money flow. Ready to move in as TV breaks to a new 6 year high.
Volume: 707.8K Avg Volume: 530.603K
BUY POINT: $73.62 Volume=796K Target=$82.85 Stop=$70.35
POSITION: TV DO - Apr. $75c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tv.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 10/29/2005
ESV (Ensco Intl.--$45.59; +0.48; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esv.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still holding the handle to its short 4 week pattern as volume edged toward a breakout. Solid pattern continues and just waiting for the breakout move. To recap: ESV has formed the current 4 week base after a 6.5 month cup with handle. Nice base on base pattern that really works to set up a strong breakout. 11 to 4 accumulation (11 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) in the double base pattern shows plenty of net buyers of the stock, setting up the further move higher. Relative strength broke out, a solid indication for the stock price to follow it.
Volume: 2.752M Avg Volume: 2.643M
BUY POINT: $46.28 Volume=4M Target=$54.45 Stop=$44.35
POSITION: ESV CI - Mar. $45c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/esv.html
Play Date: 10/25/2005
GENZ (Genzyme--$72.3; +0.54; optionable): Biotechnology. No announcement on 10-18 w/earnings but forming a solid pattern.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-25-01 at $101.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
After Hours: $71.92
STATUS: Double bottom. Good volume Monday as GENZ started toward the breakout from its base. Ready to make the move. To recap: GENZ is working on an 12 week double bottom, coming off the second low early this month. It is right below the 'hump' near 74, but showing solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) and strong money flow leading the way higher.
Volume: 2.823M Avg Volume: 2.1M
BUY POINT: $72.89 Volume=4M Target=$83.78 Stop=$69.69
POSITION: GZQ AN - Jan. $70c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/genz.html
Play Date: 10/29/2005
MACR (Macromedia--$43.91; -0.07; optionable): Multimedia and graphics software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/macr.html
After Hours: $43.85
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice lateral move continues as MACR sets up the handle to its very nice pattern. Just waiting for this nice base to show us the breakout. To recap: MACR broke higher Wednesday on strong trade but immediately fell back into its week long handle to its 5 month base. Solid pattern that used the 200 day SMA (37.88) as support, a key institutional support level. Strong 7 to 3 accumulation in the base shows plenty of buying. Money flow is strong and relative strength broke out last week. Looking for MACR to finish off its handle this week and show us a strong move higher.
Volume: 1.26M Avg Volume: 852.458K
BUY POINT: $44.45 Volume=1.5M Target=$52.95 Stop=$41.97
POSITION: NRQ BI - Feb. $45c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/macr.html
Play Date: 10/29/2005
MCHP (Microchip--$30.15; -0.32; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mchp.html
After Hours: $30.02
STATUS: Trend gap reversal. MCHP started to move higher Monday, but despite the strong volume it did not have enough to hold the move. Surprised it did not rally with the rest of the market, but still like the trend reversal gap. To recap: Two Fridays back MCHP gapped higher on a solid rise in earnings. The move cleared the down trendline that started with the July high near 33. Strong volume accompanies the move and then the stock traded laterally last week on very low trade. Last Friday it tested lower again, tapping the trendline on the low and then racing back up on solid trade. Surging money flow is racing higher ahead of price. A trend reversal gap is a very strong signal, and we like how it tested on low volume and then started the move back up. Ready to enter on a continued run higher.
Volume: 2.678M Avg Volume: 1.609M
BUY POINT: $30.62 Volume=2M Target=$32.55 Stop=$29.28
POSITION: QMT DF - Apr. $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mchp.html
Play Date: 10/24/2005
PEET (Peets Coffee--$33.27; +1.15; optionable): Specialty coffee roaster
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/peet.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice test of the 50 day EMA (31.52) last week looks to have set up the breakout. Good looking 15 week cup with handle base sporting solid 3 to 1 accumulation. Now it just needs to show us the volume as it makes the breakout move.
Volume: 122.65K Avg Volume: 174.037K
BUY POINT: $33.49 Volume=284K Target=$38.95 Stop=$32.15
POSITION: UKQ CF - Mar. $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/peet.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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