us stock market, stock watch

Begin Part 4 of 4

PBG (Pepsi Bottling--$47.87; -0.26; no options): Beverages. Splits 2:1 effective 12-5-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pbg.html
STATUS: PBG broke from a ragged cup with handle earlier this month, hitting a high of 50 on the move, and since testing the breakout (and the 50 day MVA, at 45.85), the stock has rebounded a bit and pulled into a consolidation. The consolidation is shaping up as a small pennant, holding over its 18 day MVA (47.38), and volume has dipped back considerably the last few sessions (274,800; average 661,700). We had a bit of high volume on recent selling, but the hold of support shows strength, and we are looking for a move out of this consolidation and back on the high. Target on a new high: 56.
PLAY: 48.82 on above average volume, with stock and/or December $45 calls to buy (PBG LI). Stop: 47.

BRO (Brown&Brown--$59.80; +0.47; no options): Insurance Brokers. Splits 2:1 effective 11-21-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bro.html
STATUS: BRO has been on a solid run, making a solid run on the market reopen to make a new high. The stock consolidated the first half of this month, breaking out again last week before pulling into another consolidation this week. BRO hit an intraday high of 62.20 Tuesday before reversing on big volume, but has managed to hold up well, moving on lower volume (127,800 Friday; average 114,700) and holding the 10 day MVA (57.95). We will see if it can continue to hold, perhaps testing the 10 day again, and watch for another solid move up. We will be careful to protect positions with stops, as the stock has taken off on a steeper trend after the reopen, steeper than the trend it had followed for the prior 18 months. Initial target 66.
PLAY: From here or after a test of the 10 day, 60.75 on increased volume, with stock. Stop: 57.50.

Continuing Pre-Split Plays:

ADVP (AdvancePCS--$63.83; +5.32; optionable): Health services. Announced a 2:1 stock split, effective date TBA.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
STATUS: Gave us a good put play, but after taking us out of those plays with a test back up Thursday, bounced heartily from its 200 day MVA (57.10) Friday. It has taken a big drop in the last couple of weeks, and we will drop for now, keeping an eye on the company's setting of a split date.

CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.

CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$73.68; +1.59; optionable): Banking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5:4 split on 6-29-98. The stock price was $54.63. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-20-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has insufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Broke out Friday, but not on the volume we were looking for. Since July, CBH has formed the familiar 'v'-shaped cup we have seen since the attacks, recently pulling back into a handle over the support of its 10 day MVA (70.96; 50 day is at 70.18). The stock began moving out of that tight consolidation Thursday, and hit our breakout point today, albeit on lighter volume then we wanted to see (down to 175,300, average 146,100). From here, we will look for the move to continue on the stronger volume we want, but given the lighter volume, we could get a quick pullback. The former pattern high is at 77.90, made on a break from a cup with handle in July. That is the initial target on this move, but we are looking for a strong move to potentially carry CBH to the 85 range.
BUY POINT: From here or after a lower-volume pullback that holds the breakout point at 72.70, a move over 74 on volume of 220,000. Stop: 70.
POSITION: December $70 calls to buy (CBH LN).

FLIR (Flir Sys--$45.27; -1.05; optionable): Electronics. Did not get the split, but made a very nice move on earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that FLIR has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 7-24-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: After pulling back from the recent high of 47, FLIR pulled into a tight, lateral consolidation on the 18 day MVA (42.48) before making a solid move up on earnings Thursday. Friday, however, we saw some immediate profit taking, as it tested back to the 10 day MVA (43.66) before pulling up to close with a loss on the day as volume dropped way back to 383,200 (average 297,000). Looking for this test back to hold the 10 day, and for the move to resume and take the stock up over the high; however, we will be watching as it approaches its upper channel line, which is currently at 49. Target: 54.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 47.38 on increased volume. Stop: 44.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $45 calls to buy (FFQ AI - low open interest).

FRX (Forest Labs--$75.92; +0.62; optionable): Drugs.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frx.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 12-18-00 with a board meeting. The stock price was $135. Prior to that announced a 2:1 split on 2-23-98 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price of $62. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: FRX is valiantly holding its 50 day MVA, making a weak move up from that level the last two sessions. It looks like it could take a while before FRX settles out after its recent drop, but we will keep an eye on it as it develops a better pattern (it is working on a cup with handle). Dropping.

LLL (L-3 Communications--$90.74; -0.26; optionable): Telecom. Announced earnings ahead of the company's original schedule.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lll.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that LLL has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-26-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: LLL made a bounce from the 50 day MVA (84.16), bit could be trying to form a bearish head and shoulders pattern here. We will see how it develops from here, and watch to see if it holds support and starts to put together a strong move. For the moment we are dropping.

MIKE (Michaels Stores--$52.66; -0.68; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mike.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MIKE has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-13-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Got the pullback Friday off of Thursday's big move. While volume was lower, it was still quite strong at 1.54 million (average 384,200); still, MIKE managed to power back from the intraday low of 51.30 to close with a small loss on the day. With this terrific run, we may see some profit-taking, and perhaps some consolidation in the 50-51 range before we see the next move (10 day MVA at 48.94). Current target: 57.50.
BUY POINT: Riding current positions toward the target, protecting again heavy selling. After a pullback that holds support over 51, a move over 52 on strong volume. Stop: 48.
POSITION: December $50 calls to buy (IKQ LJ).

MKC (McCormick--$44.58; +0.13; optionable): Food & Beverage.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mkc.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in November 1991. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-21-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Volume was gradually picking up as MKC pushed back up from the recent test of the 50 day MVA (44.21), but it was not enough to hold a move back over the short-term MVA's (10 day at 44.74), and the stock fell back to test the 50 day Thursday. MKC closed the week with a weak bounce up from that level, but the decreased volume of 52,200 (average 160,000) was not enough to carry the stock back over resistance. Still holding in the right shoulder of the reverse head and shoulders pattern it moved into when the markets reopened. It is also still in the range of the cup with handle it fell from in September. If MKC can continue to hold support over the 50 day, we could see it gather strength for another run. MKC was looking good before the attacks, and it recovered nicely. Looking for a move on above average volume and still targeting 52.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move over 45.50 on above average volume. Stop: 44. Breakout: A move to 46.67 on volume of 240,000. Stop: 44.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or December $40 calls to buy (MKC LH).

NOC (Northrup Grumman--$103.00; -0.35; optionable): Aerospace/Defense.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/noc.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that NOC has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting 5-17-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. We are working on the number of authorized shares.
STATUS: NOC has won the battle to acquire NNS, but it is difficult to tell what the result of the deal will be after the GD bid was vetoed. Its bounce from the 50 day MVA has momentarily stalled, and we are going to drop the play.

NNS (Newport News Shipbuilding--$70.64; -0.46; optionable): Aerospace/Defense. Being acquired by NOC, so not a split candidate.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nns.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that NNS has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting 5-18-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: NNS is being acquired by NOC and now shadowing its stock pattern. Dropping, but we will keep an eye on both to see how it develops.

SLM (USA Education--$83.50; +0.30; optionable): We did not get the announcement.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slm.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 7:2 split on 11-21-97 at a price of $132. The annual shareholder meeting 5-10-01 at which time additional shares were authorized.
STATUS: Little change Friday. After bouncing up from the 50 day MVA (81.72) Thursday, SLM ran into resistance at the short-term MVA's (10 day at 83.52) and closed the week with a loose doji at that level, as volume fell slightly to 432,100 (average 798,000). The stock is continuing in its gentle pullback from the early October breakout high of 86.70 (from a 6-week double bottom begun in mid-August). Not a concern in this type of consolidation (drifting back over support on generally light volume), but we will need to see strong volume for a serious move. If the stock can hold here, we will continue to watch for strength on a move up to the high. Target on a breakout: 100.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move to 85 on increased, above average volume. Stop: 81.50. Breakout: 86.82 on above average volume. Stop: 82.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $80 calls to buy (SLM AP).

STJ (Saint Jude Medical--$71.50; -2.50; optionable): Health Services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
BACKGROUND: STJ last split its stock 3:2 in late 1995 at a price of approximately $60. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Sold back hard Friday. After Thursday's weak move up, we were watching for a pullback, but Friday's action was stronger than we wanted to see (and stopped us out of positions). STJ was testing its breakout (from a double bottom) in a nice, lower volume pullback, but it could not hold the 10 day MVA (72.66), falling to close on the 18 day, and below the prior pivot at 72, with sharply increased volume of 1.04 million on the selling (average 630,400). From here, we will have to see it can hold up, but there could be more selling after this strong move down. The center of the double bottom is at 70, with the 50 day MVA at 69.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: After holding and consolidating in the 72 range, a move over 74 on above average volume. Stop: 71.50. If it can regroup, the breakout is at 75.50.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $70 calls to buy (STJ AN).

THC (Tenet Health Care--$58.08; -0.42; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thc.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a stock split in September 1991 in the $45 range. No additional shares will be authorized at the annual shareholder meeting, but the company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Fell back a bit more Friday, but support is still holding. THC had been behaving pretty well as it moved in its uptrend, but after four pushes up from the short-term MVA's (currently 59.80, and the last move was weak), it sold back from the recent high (62.78), falling hard on the strongest volume we have seen since the early July breakout. The stock tested back through the 50 day (58) Thursday and again Friday, but managed to pull up to close over that level, with volume decreasing Friday to 2.7 million (average 2 million), so we will see if THC will hold and perhaps bounce. The most recent test of the 50 day occurred when the markets re-opened, and it took a few sessions, but THC collected itself and then went on to clear 62.
BUY POINT: Very aggressive: On a bounce, 59 on increased volume. Stop: 57. Aggressive: A strong move back up over the short-term MVA's on increased volume. Stop: 57.50.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or February $55 calls to buy (THC BK).

POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

ATK (Alliant Techsystems--$88.24; +0.54; optionable): Aerospace/Defense. Split 3:2 effective 9-10-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atk.html
STATUS: Volume fell slightly (down to 248,800, average 309,000) as ATK closed the week with a loose "tombstone" doji. The stock sailed through our aggressive buy point on its way to a high of 91.23 Friday, but it just did not have the strength to hold on and fell back to close near the bottom of its intraday range. As we have noted before, ATK has made a terrific run, and although we have seen a stable pullback and consolidation (from an early October high of 93.40), this candlestick pattern and the low volume on the recent move up indicates that it may need more time to digest those gains. From here we will look for the stock to continue to hold over the 10 day MVA (86.19), as we watch for the next solid run. New target: 105.
PLAY: From here (aggressive): A move over 91.25 on increased, above average volume, with stock and/or February $85 calls to buy (ATK BQ). Stop: 85. Pullback: After a pullback that hold 85, a move back over 88 on above average volume, with stock and/or February $85 calls to buy (ATK BQ). Stop: 84.50.

CEFT (Concord EFS--$27.31; -1.98; optionable): Split 2:1 effective 10-01-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceft.html
STATUS: CEFT has been moving up and building the right side of its cup, but after a weak move up it finally made the drop we have been wary of, pulling back Friday on strong volume. We will keep a watch on it, but are dropping from the report.

KMP (Kinder Morgan--$37.00; +0.40 optionable): Energy. Split 2:1 effective Sept. 4.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmp.html
STATUS: KMP has been a bit erratic of late after its rapid recovery after the attacks. It is back in the range of its long consolidation, and trying to hold the 50 day. It could take a while before we see any action from it. Dropping.

PDLI (Protein Design Labs--$36.43; +2.26; optionable): Biotechnology. Splits 2:1 effective October 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdli.html
STATUS: The run continued Friday! Volume shot up considerably (to 6.42 million, average 2 million) as PDLI gapped down at the open but then quickly resumed Thursday's strong breakout move. This is great for existing positions, but we will continue to watch for a lower volume pullback to provide the next entry point. The stock has cleared our initial target, so we are carefully protecting profits as PDLI builds the right side of this its cup (dating back to late July), with left side highs at 45 (late 2000 highs at 70).
PLAY: After a lower volume pullback (and possible consolidation) holds the 34 range, a move back up on strong volume, with stock and/or November $30 calls to buy (PQI KF). Stop: 32.

WFMI (Whole Foods--$36.31; +0.32; optionable): Grocery Stores. Split 2:1 June 5.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wfmi.html
STATUS: WFMI had been moving in a range roughly between 32 & 36 since its big breakout move in July, and was pulling into a breakout test before the attacks. That test turned into stronger selling when the markets reopened, but WFMI quickly found a bottom over 29 and has pulled into a small cup. The stock closed the week by pushing up over the recent highs (and out of that range), but volume was weak on the move (down to 551,900, average 734,000) and after hitting an intraday high of 36.70, WFMI pulled back at the close. The gradual move up and Friday's close off the high could indicate a pullback, and on that move, we want to see the 10 day MVA (34.93) provide support as the stock forms handle. WFMI has made a solid move back up from the 50 day MVA (then 31.80, now 32.91), so after it has a chance to rest and consolidate, we will look for the next run. Still strong, and on a solid move over the high we will look at 41.50 as a target.
PLAY: After a lower volume pullback that holds the 35 range, 36.83 on volume of 1.1 million, with stock and/or February $30 calls to buy (FMQ BF). Stop: 34.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

us stock market
stock watch