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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: ADSK; AGN; ATVI; GPN; PGR; UNH
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 11/01/2005
HOLX (Hologic--$57.21; +1.75; optionable): Medical appliances. Splits 2:1 on 12-1-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holx.html
After Hours: $57.21
STATUS: Ascending triangle. HOLX volume jumped Tuesday as HOLX moved off the 18 day EMA (54.95), continuing its Monday start up off the 50 day EMA (52.34). Strong money flow is moving higher ahead of price. This is a stock that is a market leader and sports great fundamental and technical underpinnings. Ready to move in on a further bounce on solid trade. This stock can rip off big chunks of real estate in a hurry.
Volume: 516.637K Avg Volume: 351.323K
BUY POINT: $57.65 Volume=527K Target=$65 Stop=$54.65
POSITION: QHX CL - Mar. $60c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/holx.html
Play Date: 11/01/2005
DNR (Denbury Resources--$44.35; +0.72; optionable): Oil and gas. Splits 2:1 on 11-8-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dnr.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. After the hard early October sell off in energy, DNR bottomed above the 200 day SMA (38.30), and set up the current three week accumulation pattern. We are looking for a move up close to the late September high (51.25), what you would expect this pattern to deliver.
Volume: 446.1K Avg Volume: 505.095K
BUY POINT: $44.75 Volume=600K Target=$50.95 Stop=$43
POSITION: DNR CI - Mar. $45c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dnr.html
Play Date: 11/01/2005
VLO (Valero Energy--$105.81; +0.57; optionable): Oil and gas refining. Splits 2:1 on 12-16-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vlo.html
After Hours: $105.70
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. A somewhat common pattern in the stronger energy stocks after the early October drop. VLO has set up this current 4 week pattern, gapping higher Monday on very strong earnings. It held steady on lower, below average volume Tuesday, taking a breather with the market. Still strong money flow and VLO can rip off big chunks of real estate in a hurry when it gets moving. Looking to move in as VLO resumes its move upward toward the prior high at 116. We are using options on this play to leverage our gain as VLO moves up into the split.
Volume: 8.737M Avg Volume: 10.254M
BUY POINT: $106.65 Volume=9M Target=$116 Stop=$102.15
POSITION: VLO AA - Jan. $105c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vlo.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 11/01/2005
NTES (Netease.com--$82.83; +6.56; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntes.html
After Hours: $82.76
STATUS: Double bottom. Taking another run at NTES, a very volatile stock. It has made a short but nice double bottom at 75 where there is support from the August lateral range. Volume shot higher Tuesday as NTES jumped back through the 50 day EMA (78.49), following money flow that has turned higher. Looking to catch the momentum as it heads higher toward the prior high at 95.
Volume: 2.389M Avg Volume: 1.309M
BUY POINT: $83.55 Volume=1.5M Target=$94.89 Stop=$78.38
POSITION: NQG AQ - Jan. $85c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ntes.html
Continuing Leader Play:
Play Date: 10/25/2005
HYSL (Hyperion Solutions--$48.14; -0.22; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hysl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume started to edge back up Tuesday as HYSL makes a higher low in its handle over the 10 day EMA (47.68). Looking for a strong break higher to take it out of its very nicely formed 7 month base. Solid pattern.
Volume: 542.146K Avg Volume: 597.925K
BUY POINT: $49.55 Volume=874K Target=$58.55 Stop=$47.22
POSITION: WQE BJ - Feb. $50c (48 delta) or WQE BI - Feb. $45c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hysl.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AGN: Forecast 11-1-05. No split announcement but a very strong report that sent it higher.
CLF: Forecast 11-8-05
DIOD: Forecast 11-2-05
DVN: Forecast 11-2-05 before the open. Has double bottomed and we are watching for a break over the 50 day EMA (61.12) to give us an entry.
GENZ: Researching next potential date.
GG: Forecast 11-7-05. No current play. Gapped higher Monday and took a breather Tuesday. May be ready to make the move. A break over 20.65 is our entry point.
IMDC: Forecast 11-7-05. Announced earnings after the close and was basically steady.
MRVL: Forecast 11-17-05 after the close
PGR: Forecast 11-9-05 after the close
RL: 11-4-05 before the open
TALX: Forecast 11-15-05
WFMI: Forecast early November
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 11/01/2005
AMHC (American Healthways--$40.83; +0.27; optionable): Specialized health services. Forecast to announce a split 11-15-05
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 11-19-03 at $41.20. Prior to that a it announced a 3:2 split on 10-29-01 at $38.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amhc.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Sold off after peaking in September, but found support at the 200 day SMA (38.83) in October, forming a double bottom at that level. Solid money flow is moving back up ahead of price. Looking for AMHC to break through the 50 day EMA (41.42) ona return of volume and give us a good entry point to ride it back up.
Volume: 342.549K Avg Volume: 356.174K
BUY POINT: $41.55 Volume=534K Target=$47.95 Stop=$40.12
POSITION: QMH BH - Feb. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amhc.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/29/2005
CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs--$80.92; -0.62; optionable): Steel and iron. Forecast to announce a split 11-8-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clf.html
After Hours: $81.02
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 11-9-05 at $81.40.
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working laterally over the 10 day EMA (79.71) on low volume as CLF sets up for the next break higher. Just being patient and waiting for the next strong volume move higher. To recap: Sold hard to start October, but holding the 50 day EMA (77.26) as the bottom of the handle, something of a second handle to its big 8 month cup with handle base. Heck of a year and right at the split price from last year at this time. Good pattern has set up and looking for another spring to close after the announcement. Want to see the volume return to the upside so we can move in.
Volume: 416.5K Avg Volume: 514.609K
BUY POINT: $81.55 Volume=808K Target=$94.95 Stop=$77.05
POSITION: CLF AP - Jan. $80c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/clf.html
Play Date: 10/25/2005
GENZ (Genzyme--$71.88; -0.42; optionable): Biotechnology. No announcement on 10-18 w/earnings but forming a solid pattern.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-25-01 at $101.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Nice lateral move over the 10 day EMA (71.19) as volume moves back up above average this week. GENZ is setting up well for the break higher, forming a nice handle to the base. To recap: GENZ is working on an 12 week double bottom, coming off the second low early this month. It is right below the 'hump' near 74, but showing solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) and strong money flow leading the way higher.
Volume: 2.457M Avg Volume: 2.1M
BUY POINT: $72.89 Volume=4M Target=$83.78 Stop=$69.69
POSITION: GZQ AN - Jan. $70c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/genz.html
Play Date: 10/27/2005
TALX (Talx Corp.--$39.92; +0.39; optionable): Automated employment/income verification and other outsourced employee applications. Forecast 11-17-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 1-6-05 at $23.10. Before that it announced a 3:2 split on 11-16-00 at $31.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/talx.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Tried to make the break this week but just not getting the volume to send it on its way. Moved above 40 Tuesday but faded to close. Nice sustained volume the past week. Ready to make the move. To recap: After a strong run starting at the beginning of 2005 TALX needed a breather to consolidate and set up the next move. It fell into the current 11 week base that formed around the 50 day EMA (35.12). Nice price/volume action with very low volume at the bottom of the pattern and then resurgent volume the past week as TALX rallied while the market sold. Some solid earnings reported last week did not lead to a sell off as with many stocks. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the current base is setting up the next breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 271.377K Avg Volume: 334.649K
BUY POINT: New: $40.22 (orig. $38.65) Volume=509K Target=$48.42 Stop=$35.94
POSITION: TUB CH - Mar. $40c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/talx.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/27/2005
BJS (BJ Services--$34.6; -0.15; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bjs.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume jumped Tuesday as BJS continued its lateral move over the 18 day EMA (33.80), working on a very short cup with handle. That surge of volume is telling us to get ready. To recap: BJS broke out from a 10 month cup with handle base in July and has rallied well with periodic tests of the 50 day EMA. It sold off with the energy stocks in October after hitting 36 on the high. Unlike many energy stocks it did not breakdown in the selling and instead used it to form up the current short base. The tap at the 50 day EMA looks to have set the move by shaking out the last sellers.
Volume: 5.836M Avg Volume: 4.121M
BUY POINT: $35.05 Volume=6.3M Target=$40.95 Stop=$33.32
POSITION: BJS AG - Jan. $35c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bjs.html
Play Date: 10/29/2005
HANS (Hansen Natural--$49.71; -0.81; no options): Soft drinks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hans.html
After Hours: $49.72
STATUS: Trading range. HANS made a higher low last week at the 50 day EMA (45.63) as it tries to set up to make the breakout from its 14 week range between 40 and 50. Strong volume Monday and then a nice, below average volume test Tuesday. That is setting it up for the resumed move, and we like this because it shows it has held the initial move and the big buyers still want it. May come back a bit more before heading higher but want to see the volume when it does start back up.
Volume: 452.386K Avg Volume: 729.542K
BUY POINT: New: $50.22 (orig. $48.57) Volume=975K Target=$58.95 Stop=$46.04
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hans.html
Play Date: 10/29/2005
LUFK (Lufkin Industries--$46.7; +0.2; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lufk.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still very low, below average volume as LUFK continues its lateral move over the 10 day EMA (4.38). This is completing a nice handle to the 10 week base. Nice doji Tuesday, and we are looking for LUFK to make the break higher on better trade. Strong money flow is leading higher and LUFK is just about ready to follow it.
Volume: 125.603K Avg Volume: 253.603K
BUY POINT: $48.05 Volume=379K Target=$57.75 Stop=$44.69
POSITION: UFR CI - Mar. $45c (59 delta) or UFR CJ - Mar. $50c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lufk.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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