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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: SOX; BABY; CRM; ESV; FLR; HCC; HOLX; NTRI; NWRE; STJ
Strong plays:
1) GILD: Ready to break to a new all-time high.
2) MRVL: Has set up a nice pattern just below a 5 year high.
3) WBSN: Forming the handle to the base.
4) IDXX: Testing the breakout.
5) MACR: Still looks ready to make the break.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside plays:
Play Date: 11/02/2005
DO (Diamond Offshore--$59.35; +1.86; optionable): Oil and gas drilling (offshore)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A short 5 week base has formed that used the 200 day SMA (51.75) as support on the second leg. It jumped higher, then worked laterally the past week on lower volume., holding near the 50 day EMA (56.82). Wednesday DO broke higher on stronger, above average volume. This stock can fly when it gets going. Ready to move in as it continues higher on stronger volume.
Volume: 2.082M Avg Volume: 1.782M
BUY POINT: $59.65 Volume=2.6M Target=$67.95 Stop=$57.65
POSITION: DO CL - Mar. $60c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/do.html
Play Date: 11/02/2005
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$48.90; +1.75; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
After Hours: $48.90
STATUS: Trading range. GILD broke higher from an 11 week reverse head and shoulders base in late September. In the market selling it started laterally, moving in a trading range between 45 and 48. Wednesday GILD broke above 48 on rising though still below average volume. Looks ready to start the next leg higher that starts with a new all-time high.
Volume: 3.651M Avg Volume: 3.515M
BUY POINT: $49.45 Volume=4.2M Target=$56.95 Stop=$47.11
POSITION: GDQ BW - Feb. $47.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gild.html
Play Date: 11/02/2005
MRVL (Marvell Technology--$47.1; +1.48; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits. Forecast to announce a split 11-17-05 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 2-26-04 at $42.90.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html
After Hours: $47.06
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. A big test lower to end last week and a furious rebound. MRVL then continued the move this week, completing the right shoulder to its current 9 week base. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength is ready to make the breakout along with the price as MRVL moves to a 5 year high.
Volume: 2.912M Avg Volume: 3.434M
BUY POINT: $47.68 Volume=3.5M Target=$54.88 Stop=$45.48
POSITION: UVM BW - Feb. $47.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mrvl.html
Play Date: 11/02/2005
PACR (Pacer Intl.--$26.83; +0.96; optionable): Air delivery and freight
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pacr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong volume Wednesday for the first time in a long time (all during the 10 week handle) as PACR moves toward the breakout from its 8 month base. Solid 8 to 5 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down price weeks on rising volume) shows solid buying. Relative strength is making the breakout, and that is a very bullish indication that the price will follow.
Volume: 522.055K Avg Volume: 177.847K
BUY POINT: $27.42 Volume=295K Target=$31.95 Stop=$25.55
POSITION: QZT CE - Mar. $25c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pacr.html
New buy point on a current play:
Play Date: 10/19/2005
WBSN (Websense--$59.58; +1.25; optionable): Internet business services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wbsn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After blasting higher the prior week on strong volume, WBSN is moving laterally this week on very low, below average volume. This is forming the handle to its 8 month base, setting up the next breakout and run. Strong money flow is running higher ahead of price. Setting up for the breakout to a new all time high.
Volume: 439.006K Avg Volume: 572.642K
BUY POINT: $60.42 Volume=832K Target=$69.45 Stop=$58.25
POSITION: DQH DL - Apr. $60c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wbsn.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
Play Date: 10/25/2005
GENZ (Genzyme--$73.14; +1.26; optionable): Biotechnology. No announcement on 10-18 w/earnings but forming a solid pattern.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 4-25-01 at $101.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
After Hours: $73.07
STATUS: Double bottom. Continued higher Wednesday but volume backed off below average as GENZ moved through the buy point. Closed off the high (73.70); want to see better trade to punch it through the September highs, and it was not there Wednesday. Still looks good. To recap: GENZ is working on an 12 week double bottom, coming off the second low early this month. It is right below the 'hump' near 74, but showing solid 4 to 2 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) and strong money flow leading the way higher.
Volume: 1.957M Avg Volume: 2.105M
BUY POINT: New: $73.38 (orig. $72.89) Volume=4M Target=$83.78 Stop=$69.69
POSITION: GZQ AN - Jan. $70c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/genz.html
Play Date: 10/29/2005
IDXX (Idexx Labs--$69.14; -0.34; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idxx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. IDXX is coming back to test the late October break higher that took IDXX out of its 17 month cup with handle base. Strong volume on the breakout move and nice light trade as it tests. Will likely come back more on Thursday, but we expect it to hold near 68.50ish. Will let it test back and then move in as it springs back up and follows its strong money flow. Relative strength broke out as well, a good corroboration of the price breakout.
Volume: 218.19K Avg Volume: 151.824K
BUY POINT: $68.75 Volume=215K Target=$78.95 Stop=$66.68
POSITION: UID DM - Apr. $65c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/idxx.html
Play Date: 10/29/2005
MACR (Macromedia--$44.85; +0.22; optionable): Multimedia and graphics software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/macr.html
After Hours: $44.85
STATUS: Cup w/handle. This is one of our favorite patterns, and volume ahs been decent the past two weeks (above average), but we have not seen that breakaway price move coupled with volume. Getting close and will be patient and let it happen. To recap: MACR broke higher last Wednesday on strong trade but immediately fell back into its week long handle to its 5 month base. Solid pattern that used the 200 day SMA (38.07) as support, a key institutional support level. Strong 7 to 3 accumulation in the base shows plenty of buying. Money flow is strong and relative strength broke out last week. Looking for MACR to finish off its handle this week and show us a strong move higher.
Volume: 1.167M Avg Volume: 856.308K
BUY POINT: New: $45.11 (orig. $44.45) Volume=1.5M Target=$52.95 Stop=$41.97
POSITION: NRQ BI - Feb. $45c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/macr.html
Play Date: 11/01/2005
NTES (Netease.com--$83.24; +0.41; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntes.html
STATUS: Double bottom. NTES was on track for the move we were looking for, but we wanted to see if it held the early move. It ended up giving most of it back on so-so volume (just above average). Strong move to 85.97 on the high before fading. Still a nice little pattern but need to see the strong trade. To recap: NTES has made a short but nice double bottom at 75 where there is support from the August lateral range. Volume shot higher Tuesday as NTES jumped back through the 50 day EMA (78.68), following money flow that has turned higher. Looking to catch the momentum as it heads higher toward the prior high at 95.
Volume: 1.429M Avg Volume: 1.325M
BUY POINT: $83.55 Volume=1.5M Target=$94.89 Stop=$78.38
POSITION: NQG AQ - Jan. $85c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ntes.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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