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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: APC; BCSI; DVA; FAST; GENZ; GILD; PSUN; RS
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 11/03/2005
DADE (Dade Behring Holdings--$37.37; +0.07; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dade.html
STATUS: DADE is working on a ragged 13 week cup base that has come back from a July gap higher to test the move and fill the gap. It has done that, sporting strong 6 to 3 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume), showing plenty of buying during the test. Volume jumped back up above average the past week as DADE bottomed over the 200 day SMA (33.14) and rebounded. It may take another day or two to work laterally after that move, but then give us a breakout to a new all-time high. Strong top rated stock in its third year since going public.
Volume: 1.074M Avg Volume: 657.242K
BUY POINT: $38.11 Volume=1M Target=$43.85 Stop=$36.45
POSITION: JDQ BU - Feb. $37.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dade.html
Play Date: 11/03/2005
SRCL (Stericycle--$58.88; -1.57; optionable): Waste management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srcl.html
After Hours: $58.75
STATUS: Breakout test. SRCL is moving up toward its former split price, but in the meantime this leading stock is giving us a great entry point after a surge higher earlier in this week that took it out of a downtrend that started in August (just as with NASDAQ). SRCL, however, moved to a new all-time high and is now testing that move. Looking for SRCL to hold near the 10 day EMA (57.80) and then resume the breakout move. Strong stock with top rated fundamentals and technical pattern.
Volume: 491.007K Avg Volume: 266.023K
BUY POINT: $59.32 Volume=399K Target=$68.45 Stop=$57.68
POSITION: URL BL - Feb. $60c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/srcl.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 11/03/2005
AMGN (Amgen--$77.51; +3.61; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amgn.html
After Hours: $77.74
STATUS: Cup. AMGN is working on a 7 week cup that has formed as a test of the big July gap higher. It filled most of the gap on the pullback. Thursday it jumped up through the 50 day EMA (77.18) on a return to above average volume. Looking for more volume as AMGN continues the move higher and follows the strong money flow.
Volume: 12.365M Avg Volume: 8.45M
BUY POINT: $78.25 Volume=13M Target=$89.95 Stop=$75.45
POSITION: YAA AO - Jan. $75c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/amgn.html
Continuing Leader Play:
Play Date: 10/12/2005
VTIV (Ventiv Health--$25.86; +0.32; optionable): Outsourced clinical sales, marketing and other solutions for pharma, biotech and life science industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vtiv.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. VTIV finally got some volume Thursday, with trade moving up to average as VTIV bounced off the 50 day EMA (25.01). This 50 day test is the test of a breakout from a 6 month cup with handle base. A strong stock that is a market leader sporting excellent fundamentals to go along with the strong pattern. Money flow is moving higher ahead of price, and this looks to be the start of the resumption of the breakout move.
Volume: 391.372K Avg Volume: 480.83K
BUY POINT: $26.48 Volume=714K Target=$32.25 Stop=$24.63
POSITION: QBP AY - Jan. $27.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vtiv.html
Play Date: 10/19/2005
WBSN (Websense--$61.04; +1.46; optionable): Internet business services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wbsn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher Thursday and rallied to 62.30 on the high before giving back just over a point off the move. Volume was above average but still rather lackluster. With the close off the high we are looking for a further test Friday toward 60. We will use that and a bounce to start the position. May not happen Friday but we want to be ready for this one. To recap: After blasting higher the prior week on strong volume, WBSN is moving laterally this week on very low, below average volume. This is forming the handle to its 8 month base, setting up the next breakout and run. Strong money flow is running higher ahead of price. Setting up for the breakout to a new all time high.
Volume: 696.193K Avg Volume: 568.705K
BUY POINT: Test $60ish, then $60.42 on the rebound. Volume=832K Target=$69.45 Stop=$58.25
POSITION: DQH DL - Apr. $60c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wbsn.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AGN: Forecast 11-1-05. What a surge even if no split announced. Hitting some resistance at 100. If it cannot break through and hold it would be a good time to take some gain off the table.
AMHC: Forecast 11-16-05
CLF: Forecast 11-8-05
DIOD: Forecast 11-2-05. No split announcement Wednesday as DIOD continues to hold near the 50 day EMA.
DVN: Forecast 11-2-05 before the open. No split announcement this time around but looks ready to make a significant move here along with may of the oil and gas stocks.
GENZ: Researching next potential date.
GG: Forecast 11-7-05. No current play. Still trying to put together a breakout move, fading Thursday on rising, above average volume but still holding the base it was able to salvage. A break over 20.65 is our entry point.
IMDC: Forecast 11-7-05
MRVL: Forecast 11-17-05 after the close
PGR: Forecast 11-9-05 after the close
RL: 11-4-05 before the open. Up for Friday after a strong gap higher Thursday.
TALX: Forecast 11-15-05
WFMI: Forecast early November
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 11/03/2005
MRTN (Marten Transport--$26.31; +0.34; no options): Long-haul truckload carrier. Forecast to announce a split 11-8-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrtn.html
After Hours: $26.35
STATUS: Breakout test. Moving laterally the past two weeks over the 10 day EMA (25.71) after a strong break higher in late October that took MRTN out of a 12 week flat base that formed after a 6 month cup with handle base. Nice base on base pattern has set a stronger move, and the volume the past month shows a lot of accumulation ongoing in MRTN. Excellent volume surge Thursday as MRTN basically ran in place. That often precedes a breakout move. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength broke out on the late October move; strong stock. Ready to move in as MRTN continues the run higher.
Volume: 145.016K Avg Volume: 62.5K
BUY POINT: $26.84 Volume=100K Target=$30.95 Stop=$25.25
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrtn.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/29/2005
CLF (Cleveland-Cliffs--$83.97; +2.17; optionable): Steel and iron. Forecast to announce a split 11-8-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clf.html
After Hours: $83.98
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 11-9-05 at $81.40.
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Good volume Thursday as CLF broke higher. If it can continue the move Friday we will look at starting a position. To recap: Sold hard to start October, but holding the 50 day EMA (77.98) as the bottom of the handle, something of a second handle to its big 8 month cup with handle base. Heck of a year and right at the split price from last year at this time. Good pattern has set up and looking for another spring to close after the announcement. Want to see the volume return to the upside so we can move in.
Volume: 995K Avg Volume: 513.185K
BUY POINT: New: $84.32 (orig. $81.55) Volume=808K Target=$94.95 Stop=$77.05
POSITION: CLF AP - Jan. $80c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/clf.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/24/2005
SWN (Southwestern Energy--$73.20; -0.34; optionable): Oil and gas. Splits 2:1 on 11-18-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swn.html
After Hours: $73.20
STATUS: Cup w/handle. SWN has formed a short 5 week base over the 50 day EMA (65.87). It is moving laterally over the 10 day EMA (71.17) on low volume, forming a handle to the short pattern. Good recovery, good pattern. Looking for some volume as it makes the break higher. At that point we will add to our position but it is also a good point to take first positions as well.
Volume: 2.501M Avg Volume: 2.333M
BUY POINT: New positions: $73.65 (orig. $71.65) Volume=2.6M Target=$85.95 Stop=$67.89
POSITION: SWN CN - Mar. $70c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/swn.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/22/2005
RMD (Resmed--$39.28; +1.68; optionable): Medical devices for sleep disorders
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmd.html
STATUS: Double bottom. RMD gapped higher Thursday on strong volume after RMD reported strong earnings after hours. The gap took RMD up to the 'hump' at 39.57. It showed a doji at that level and will likely need another couple days to consolidate, but the earnings were strong and the move was strong, so we want to be ready for when it continues the move.
Volume: 1.172M Avg Volume: 571.761K
BUY POINT: New: $39.65 (orig. $38.61) Volume=798K Target=$45.75 Stop=$36.88
POSITION: RMD AU - Jan. $37.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rmd.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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