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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: AGN, AMGN, DNA, ESRX, MRVL, SBUX
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 11/06/2005
NIHD (NII Hldgs--$84.30; -0.25; optionable): Wireless telecom. Splits 2:1 on 11-22.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nihd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NIHD has run a long way in 2004 and 2005, and it needed a breather. It surged higher in late July and then fell into the current 13 week lateral move, the last 5 weeks forming a short cup with handle as it came back late in the week to test the 10 day EMA (82.36) on lower volume. Very strong run and we are looking to capitalize on this pullback to give us a good run into the actual split. One of the top rated stocks in the market in terms of earnings growth and its strength.
Volume: 415.2K Avg Volume: 950K
BUY POINT: $85.45 Volume=1.1M Target=$96.55 Stop=$82.25
POSITION: QHQ AQ - Jan. $85c (50 delta) or QHQ CQ - Mar. $85c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nihd.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 11/05/2005
CELL (Brightpoint--$21.57; -0.59; optionable): Wireless accessories, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cell.html
STATUS: Test breakout. CELL gapped higher to end October, moving out of an 8 week base formed along the 50 day EMA (19.19), making higher lows in the base. It rallied to 22.50 on the move and is now testing on lower, below average volume. Likely to get to the 10 day EMA (20.91) on this test before rebounding. Strong money flow and a relative strength breakout. Can move well when it gets going, and this first test of the breakout looks like a good opportunity.
Volume: 476.147K Avg Volume: 511.879K
BUY POINT: From Friday close: $21.67. On a test of 20.91, then 21.22 on the rebound. Volume=749K Target=$25.95 Stop=$20.78
POSITION: UAY DD - Apr. $20c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cell.html
Play Date: 11/05/2005
ICUI (ICU Medical--$34.58; -0.03; optionable): Medical instruments, supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/icui.html
After Hours: $34.35
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice lateral move the past two weeks as ICUI works on the handle to its 6.5 month base. Somewhat ragged with its skewed bottom, but a strong stock sporting excellent 8 to 4 accumulation (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) and surging money flow. That shows a lot buying in the stock. Looking for the handle to complete this week and ICUI to give us the breakout move.
Volume: 96.306K Avg Volume: 123.077K
BUY POINT: $35.32 Volume=215K Target=$41.55 Stop=$33.89
POSITION: QPD BG - Feb. $35c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/icui.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AMHC: Forecast 11-16-05
CLF: Forecast 11-8-05
GENZ: Researching next potential date.
GG: Forecast 11-7-05. No current play. Struggling still but holding in the pattern. A break over 20.54 on some strong trade is what we are looking for.
IMDC: Forecast 11-7-05
MRTN: Forecast 11-8-05
MRVL: Forecast 11-17-05 after the close
PGR: Forecast 11-9-05 after the close
TALX: Forecast 11-17-05
WFMI: Forecast early November
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 11/06/2005
HITK (Hi-Tech Pharmacal--$37.23; -0.2; no options): Generic drugs. Forecast 12-19-05
BACKGROUND: Announced its only split, a 3:2, on 12-18-02 at $24.00.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hitk.html
After Hours: $37.21
STATUS: Breakout test. HITK is a market leader with great sales and earnings growth along with a nice breakout from a 15 week cup with handle base. Surged higher in late October and spent Thursday and Friday easing back a bit; not much, but nice low volume and stocks typically test toward the 10 day EMA (35.71) on these tests. Solid 6 to 3 accumulation in the pattern shows plenty of support for the stock. Looking for a further pullback to take it closer to the 10 day EMA, but if it starts higher from here we will start a position.
Volume: 85.194K Avg Volume: 140K
BUY POINT: $37.89 Volume=200K Target=$44.95 Stop=$35.65
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hitk.html
Play Date: 11/05/2005
JOSB (Joseph A. Banks--$44.43; +0.06; optionable): Apparel stores. Potential announcement 12-6-05
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5:4 split 6-9-04 at $33.40. Prior to that it announced a 2:1 split 1-14-04 at $39.70.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/josb.html
After Hours: $44.38
STATUS: Double bottom. JOSB surged to start the month on some strong sales and plans to open more stores. It is a solid leader in retail, boasting strong earnings and sales gains. Nice 12 week base looks as if it is going to form a handle: it rallied to 47 on the Thursday high but gave most of it back and then wandered Friday. That often indicates the recent move is overdone and it needs a breather. A handle is just the ticket to set up the next move. Looks strong; just need to wait for this handle to form this week and then show us another break higher.
Volume: 165.917K Avg Volume: 363.982K
BUY POINT: $45.45 Volume=433K Target=$53 Stop=$42.27
POSITION: QZS DI - Apr. $45c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/josb.html
Play Date: 11/05/2005
LCAV (LCA-Vision--$43.30; -0.70; optionable): Medical practitioners. Forecast 11-16-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 11-17-04 at $32.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lcav.html
After Hours: $44
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Surged higher in third week of October on strong earnings, building the right side of its 17 week base. It came back to end October and filled the gap, holding at the 10 day EMA (42.06) on that test. It bounced some last week on some volume, then faded into Friday on low, below average trade. Strong run in 2004 through June 2005, and it needed a breather. Good pullback that held the 200 day SMA (38.09) on the low, a key institutional support level. Money flow is surging higher even as LCAV makes this pullback. Looking for it to hold above the 10 day EMA (42.06) and give us a break higher. We will look at positions on a move higher from here if it does not give us the further pullback. This is a market leader, and when it shows us a high volume move, we want to be there.
Volume: 374.038K Avg Volume: 628.659K
BUY POINT: From Friday close: $43.88. After test of 42: 42.75 on the rebound. Volume=965K Target=$52 Stop=$41.89
POSITION: JVQ CH - Mar. $40c (66 delta) or JVQ CI - Mar. $45c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lcav.html
Play Date: 11/05/2005
TSCO (Tractor Supply--$52.08; +0.73; optionable): Rural farm and ranch retail. Researching a potential date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 7-21-03 at $49.50. Prior to that it announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-18-02 in conjunction with a board meeting. This stock price was $57.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tsco.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. We don't have a specific date yet for TSCO, but it is at the right price, and we also like this pattern as it tends to lead TSCO to solid gains. TSCO peaked on its 2005 run in late July; great move that reversed a 15 month downtrend. It needed a breather and fell into the current 13 week base. It has formed a reverse head and shoulder of sorts, a pattern that TSCO often uses to launch new, substantial moves. Indeed, back in Q1 of 2003 we spotted TSCO in this pattern and rode the stock to an easy double. Needs to show us some more volume as it continues higher though it is likely to pause for another day or so and then give us a break higher.
Volume: 254.441K Avg Volume: 472.282K
BUY POINT: $52.48 Volume=675K Target=$60.75 Stop=$50.55
POSITION: QTF DJ - Apr. $50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tsco.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 11/03/2005
MRTN (Marten Transport--$26.24; -0.07; no options): Long-haul truckload carrier. Forecast to announce a split 11-8-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 11-11-03 at $26.40. Prior to that another 3:2 split on 7-14-03.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrtn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Very low volume Friday as MRTN showed a nice tight doji over the 10 day EMA (25.81) as it sets up for the next move. Just being patient and letting the volume kick back in. To recap: Moving laterally the past two weeks over the 10 day EMA after a strong break higher in late October that took MRTN out of a 12 week flat base that formed after a 6 month cup with handle base. Nice base on base pattern has set a stronger move, and the volume the past month shows a lot of accumulation ongoing in MRTN. Excellent volume surge last Thursday as MRTN basically ran in place. That often precedes a breakout move. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength broke out on the late October move; strong stock. Ready to move in as MRTN continues the run higher.
Volume: 33.49K Avg Volume: 62.5K
BUY POINT: $26.84 Volume=100K Target=$30.95 Stop=$25.25
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrtn.html
Play Date: 10/31/2005
CWTR (Coldwater Creek--$28.17; -0.94; optionable): Apparel retail stores. Forecast for a potential announcement the fourth week of December.
BACKGROUND: A frequent splitter of late. Last split 3:2 on 2-14-05 at $26.90. Like these as they build up shares for holding onto a good stock.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cwtr.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Moving this one to the pre-announcement category given its frequent splits and its solid recent move. Nice double bottom of sorts (very similar to a cup), and now looks as if it will form a handle to its 10 week base formed as CWTR consolidates after hitting another all-time high. Will let it make this test and form the handle this week, but we will also be ready to move in if it rebounds from here. Solid market leader with excellent fundamentals to match its technical pattern.
Volume: 486.175K Avg Volume: 709.267K
BUY POINT: $28.55 Volume=850K Target=$32.98 Stop=$26.72
POSITION: UCJ DE - Apr. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cwtr.html
Play Date: 10/27/2005
TALX (Talx Corp.--$40.76; -1.01; optionable): Automated employment/income verification and other outsourced employee applications. Forecast 11-17-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 1-6-05 at $23.10. Before that it announced a 3:2 split on 11-16-00 at $31.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/talx.html
STATUS: Breakout test. TALX rallied last week but peaked out 43.67 on the Thursday high and then gave most of the move back. Friday it tapped at the 10 day EMA (39.25) on the low and rebounded; both sessions on above average volume. Nice 12 week base with positive 4 to 2 accumulation. Like this test; it gives us a better entry, and when we see it bounce back up on stronger volume we know the buyers are back.
Volume: 335.109K Avg Volume: 314.848K
BUY POINT: $40.95 Volume=509K Target=$48.75 Stop=$39.05
POSITION: TUB CH - Mar. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/talx.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/03/2005
DADE (Dade Behring Holdings--$37.54; +0.17; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dade.html
STATUS: Very low volume Friday as DADE moved slightly higher. This follows a strong volume week where DADE rallied well, overcoming a dump lower to end October. Looking for volume to spike as DADE continues higher. To recap: DADE is working on a ragged 13 week cup base that has come back from a July gap higher to test the move and fill the gap. It has done that, sporting strong 6 to 3 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume), showing plenty of buying during the test. Volume jumped back up above average the past week as DADE bottomed over the 200 day SMA (33.19) and rebounded. It may take another day or two to work laterally after that move, but then give us a breakout to a new all-time high. Strong top rated stock in its third year since going public.
Volume: 270.818K Avg Volume: 654.07K
BUY POINT: $38.11 Volume=1M Target=$43.85 Stop=$36.45
POSITION: JDQ BU - Feb. $37.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dade.html
Play Date: 10/22/2005
RMD (Resmed--$38.76; -0.52; optionable): Medical devices for sleep disorders
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmd.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Filling the gap already, testing the 10 day EMA (38.37) on the low after that bounce off the 50 day EMA (37.45) Thursday, moving on strong volume. Looking for it to finish the test early this week near the 10 day and then rebound to give us our entry point.
Volume: 593K Avg Volume: 592.418K
BUY POINT: New: $39.65 (orig. $38.61) Volume=798K Target=$45.75 Stop=$36.88
POSITION: RMD AU - Jan. $37.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rmd.html
Play Date: 11/03/2005
SRCL (Stericycle--$58.42; -0.46; optionable): Waste management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srcl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the nice teat of its strong late October surge that reversed its downtrend that started in August. Nice low volume shows few sellers. Ready to move in as it moves higher this week. To recap: SRCL is moving up toward its former split price, but in the meantime this leading stock is giving us a great entry point after a surge higher earlier in this week that took it out of a downtrend that started in August (just as with NASDAQ). SRCL, however, moved to a new all-time high and is now testing that move. Looking for SRCL to hold near the 10 day EMA (57.80) and then resume the breakout move. Strong stock with top rated fundamentals and technical pattern.
Volume: 184.001K Avg Volume: 262.582K
BUY POINT: $59.32 Volume=399K Target=$68.45 Stop=$57.68
POSITION: URL BL - Feb. $60c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/srcl.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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