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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers: FAST, HAR, HCC, HITK, HRS, IRIS
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 11/07/2005
SMG (Scotts Co.--$90; +0.05; optionable): Miracle-Gro, etc. Splits 2:1 on 11-10-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smg.html
STATUS: Breakout test. SMG is testing the 10 day EMA (88.49) after breaking higher last week from a 4 week flat base that formed using the 50 day EMA (84.79) as support. Strong volume move out of the pattern and a lower volume test of the 10 day. Accumulation is a solid 2 to 0 (2 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) and money flow is leading higher ahead of price.
Volume: 309.6K Avg Volume: 210.706K
BUY POINT: $90.99 Volume=316K Target=$100 Stop=$88.45
POSITION: SMG CR - Mar. $90c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/smg.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 11/07/2005
LUK (Leucadia National--$44.15; -0.02; optionable): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/luk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice 8 week base has formed using the 50 day EMA (41.90) as support. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) has set the stage for the breakout and the run higher. This has formed as a consolidation of the breakout from a larger 8 month base that broke out in September. Gapped higher Monday but could not hold the move. Nice base and ready to make the break higher.
Volume: 290.9K Avg Volume: 263.775K
BUY POINT: $44.75 Volume=396K Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.92
POSITION: LUK CI - Mar. $45c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/luk.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Play Date: 11/05/2005
LCAV (LCA-Vision--$44.32; +1.02; optionable): Medical practitioners. Forecast 11-16-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 11-17-04 at $32.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lcav.html
After Hours: $44.19
STATUS: Cup w/handle. May not make it back to the 10 day EMA (42.47). LCAV bounced Monday on stronger but still below average volume. Looks ready to move and follow that strong money flow higher. To recap: Surged higher in third week of October on strong earnings, building the right side of its 17 week base. It came back to end October and filled the gap, holding at the 10 day EMA on that test. It bounced some last week on some volume, then faded into Friday on low, below average trade. Strong run in 2004 through June 2005, and it needed a breather. Good pullback that held the 200 day SMA (38.20) on the low, a key institutional support level. Money flow is surging higher even as LCAV makes this pullback. Looking for it to hold above the 10 day EMA and give us a break higher.
Volume: 409.714K Avg Volume: 628.659K
BUY POINT: New: 44.88 Volume=965K Target=$54 Stop=$41.89
POSITION: JVQ CH - Mar. $40c (66 delta) or JVQ CI - Mar. $45c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lcav.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/06/2005
NIHD (NII Hldgs--$84.68; +0.38; optionable): Wireless telecom. Splits 2:1 on 11-22.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nihd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another nice low volume doji over the 10 day EMA (82.78) as NIHD sets up for its next breakout to a new all-time. Just needs to show us the move on volume. To recap: NIHD has run a long way in 2004 and 2005, and it needed a breather. It surged higher in late July and then fell into the current 13 week lateral move, the last 5 weeks forming a short cup with handle as it came back late in the week to test the 10 day EMA on lower volume. Very strong run and we are looking to capitalize on this pullback to give us a good run into the actual split. One of the top rated stocks in the market in terms of earnings growth and its strength.
Volume: 434.012K Avg Volume: 798.259K
BUY POINT: $85.45 Volume=1.1M Target=$96.55 Stop=$82.25
POSITION: QHQ AQ - Jan. $85c (50 delta) or QHQ CQ - Mar. $85c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nihd.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://stocksplits.net/ssr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACL 10/08 PreAnn 139.11 +1.2 126.38 142.45 406K 725K 137.89
Current.
ADSK 10/05 Test 18 46.48 +0.32 45.62 54.55 2.8M 4.1M 46.32
Current.
AGN 10/27 PreAnn 100.45 -0.54 89.25 102 924K 1.2M 98.25
AMGN 11/03 Test BO 79.89 +0.7 78.88 89.95 7.5M 13M 77.04
Current. Continue with uptrend on lower, below average volume.
AMHC 11/01 PreAnn 41.67 +0.55 41.55 47.95 112K 534K 40.12
Buy Not Issued.
APC 10/25 PreAnn 87.91 -1.39 92.45 102.95 2.7M 2.4M 90.11
Current.
ATVI 10/18 PreSplt 17.41 -0.01 16.28 19.42 2.4M 3.4M 16.35
Current. Beginning to level off holding the gain on lower below average volume.
BCSI 10/22 Cup hdl 50 +0.29 46.15 54.95 168K 543K 50.31
Current. Holding at resistance here on low volume.
BJS 10/27 Test 50 33.85 -0.29 35.41 40.95 3.9M 6.3M 34.11
Current. Pullback testing the simple 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back on below average volume. May test back to 33.27.
BRL 10/01 Cup hdl 56.8 -0.9 56.31 64.95 688K 1M 56.05
Current.
CELL 11/05 Test BO 22.21 +0.64 21.67 25.95 392K 749K 20.78
Buy Not Issued.
CHS 10/10 DB hdl 42.38 +0.52 39.34 46.95 2M 2.9M 40.45
Current. Continue with the uptrend on slightly above average volume.
CLF 10/29 PreAnn 86.72 +2.35 81.55 94.95 812K 808K 77.05
Buy Not Issued.
CWTR 10/31 PreAnn 28.23 +0.06 27.32 31.88 304K 850K 25.87
Buy Not Issued.
DADE 11/03 Cup 37.45 -0.09 38.11 43.85 269K 1M 36.45
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 37.81 at the intraday high, but gave it back on low volume. Still in the pattern.
DIOD 10/29 PreAnn 37.66 +0.76 37.15 44.55 162K 350K 36.05
Buy Not Issued. Announced its split today and enjoyed a decent session. A bit more trade and it is ready for a buy.
DNA 10/29 DB hdl 93.11 -0.84 90 100 2.9M 5.8M 89.25
Current. Pullback tapping 92.25 at the intraday low and rallied back on low volume. May continue to test back to 92.84.
DNA 04/28 Test BO 93.11 -0.84 70.42 81 2.9M 8.2M 89.25
Current.
DNR 11/01 PreSplt 44.68 -1.36 47.72 53.95 490K 600K 45.42
Current.
DO 11/02 Cup hdl 58.14 -0.78 60.95 69.95 1.7M 2.6M 57.65
Current. Gapped down at the open testing the 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back on below average volume. May continue to test back to 58 (10 day MVA)
DVA 10/03 PreAnn 51.5 -0.12 48.98 55.95 250K 550K 50.68
Current.
DVN 10/18 Dbl btm 57.12 -1.81 62.55 71.95 4.8M 3M 61.05
Buy Not Issued. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
ESRX 10/13 Test 50 79.36 +0.05 62.44 70.92 1.9M 2.1M 75.88
Current. Continue with the uptrend meeting some resistance at 80.
FAST 10/25 PreSplt 74.85 +1.67 71.94 77.95 802K 918K 73.55
Current.
FLO 10/06 Cup hdl 28.96 -1.42 28.04 32.21 538K 339K 29.32
Trailing Stop.
GENZ 10/25 PreAnn 71.6 -3.22 74.19 84.98 5.5M 4M 72.45
Current. Gapped lower on an analyst downgrade, giving us little
to work with. Managed to hold the 50 day EMA so we
may get a bounce here. A strong stock should recover
from a downgrade.
GILD 11/02 Flat 49.87 +0.19 49.85 56.95 2.9M 4.2M 47.88
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave some of it back on lower below average volume. Beginning to level off here.
GILD 09/10 Cup hdl 49.87 +0.19 47.19 53.95 2.9M 4.2M 48.89
Current.
GPN 10/06 PreSplt 43.8 +0.02 39.98 44.73 622K 475K 42.22
Current. Meeting resistance at 44
GPN 09/13 PreSplt 43.8 +0.02 34.86 37.93 622K 350K 42.22
Current.
GTK 10/12 Test BO 31.09 -0.26 32.24 27.95 868K 1.7M 31.05
Current.
HANS 10/29 Rv H&S 55.7 -1.93 48.57 56.95 1.1M 975K 55.45
HAR 10/06 PreAnn 104.55 +3.74 104.51 119.95 589K 1.1M 103.22
Current.
HCC 10/26 Asc Bse 32.05 +0.56 28.75 33 852K 857K 30.96
Current. Continue with the uptrend for a nice gain on strong volume.
HIBB 10/22 Cup hdl 26.76 -0.39 26.75 30.98 460K 612K 25.88
Current.
HITK 11/06 PreAnn 38.95 +1.72 38.25 45.25 172K 200K 36.05
Entered today.
HOLX 11/01 PreSplt 61.84 +0.74 59.55 65 333K 527K 59.89
Meeting some resistance 62.50.
HRS 10/27 Test 50 42.94 +0.94 42.99 49 927K 1M 40.97
Entered today.
HYSL 10/25 Cup hdl 49.42 +0.99 49.55 58.55 383K 874K 47.22
Buy Not Issued. Volume not there to enter the play. If stock continues the move on strong volume will be a buy if hits the buy point.
ICUI 11/05 Cup hdl 34.86 +0.28 35.32 41.55 107K 215K 33.89
Buy Not Hit.
INGR 10/15 Asc Bse 47.98 -0.02 46.31 53.55 280K 435K 44.74
Buy Not Issued.
IRIS 10/22 Test BO 26 +3.31 21.74 24.99 974K 290K 23.98
Target Hit. Took some of the money off the table as stock gapped up for an explosive move on excellent volume surge.
IRIS 10/13 Test BO 26 +3.31 20.44 24.95 974K 304K 23.98
Target Hit.
JCOM 10/22 Cup hdl 44.42 -0.7 42.75 50.95 484K 750K 43.33
Current. Pullback on rising, but average volume. May continue to test back to 10 day MVA (44)
JOSB 11/05 PreAnn 45.78 +1.35 45.45 53 270K 433K 42.27
Buy Not Issued.
LCAV 11/05 PreAnn 44.32 +1.02 43.88 52 410K 965K 41.89
Buy Not Issued. Continue with the uptrend for a nice gain on low volume. Broke through some resistance at 44.
LUFK 10/29 DB hdl 46.75 -1.52 48.79 57.75 155K 379K 46.65
Current.
MCRS 10/29 Dbl btm 46.39 +0.39 46.21 54.95 180K 450K 44.89
Current.
MRTN 11/03 PreAnn 25.9 -0.34 26.84 30.95 57K 100K 25.25
Buy Not Hit.
MRVL 11/02 Rv H&S 48.9 +0.1 48.71 55.88 1.9M 3.5M 46.32
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave some of it back on lower below average volume. Still in good shape.
MRVL 10/01 PreAnn 48.9 +0.1 46.65 53.65 1.9M 3.5M 46.87
Current.
NIHD 11/06 PreSplt 84.68 +0.38 85.45 96.55 434K 1.1M 82.25
Buy Not Hit.
NTES 11/01 Dbl btm 79.24 -2.06 84.42 95.88 4M 1.5M 78.24
Entered today. Lured us in as stock tapped 84.97 at the intraday high, but gave it all back and then some on strong volume surge to hold at the 50 day MVA. Stock may test back to 78.75.
PSUN 10/31 Dbl btm 27.77 +0.28 25.38 29.85 1.3M 2.2M 26.89
Current. Continue with the uptrend on lower below average volume.
RMD 10/22 Test 50 38.56 -0.2 38.76 44.75 416K 798K 36.88
Buy Not Issued.
RS 10/13 PreAnn 60.5 +0.25 50.89 58.55 400K 403K 57.45
SBUX 10/15 PreSplt 30.41 +0.05 26.85 29.66 5.7M 3.2M 28.95
Current.
SRCL 11/03 Test BO 58.1 -0.32 59.32 68.45 275K 399K 57.68
Buy Not Hit. Pullback showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume. Should be ready to bounce from here.
STJ 10/18 Asc Tri 49.74 +0.22 48.65 54.95 1.8M 2.5M 48.65
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave much of it back testing the 10 day MVA intraday on rising, but average volume. Meeting resistance at 50.
SWN 10/24 PreAnn 68.87 -0.55 71.65 85.95 2.3M 2.6M 68.68
Current. Pullback tapping 66.91 at the intraday low and rallied back showing a tight doji on lower below average volume. Holding at support. Should be ready to bounce from here.
TALX 10/27 PreAnn 39.68 -1.08 40.76 47.95 311K 509K 38.89
Buy Not Issued. Pullback tapping 39.03 at the intraday low and rallied back on above average volume. May continue to test back to the 10 day MVA (39.50)
TSCO 11/05 PreAnn 51.82 -0.26 52.48 60.75 305K 675K 50.55
Buy Not Hit.
UNH 10/08 Test BO 58.5 +0.48 56.32 64.95 3.7M 6M 58.28
Current. Still in uptrend on lower below average volume.
VLO 11/01 PreSplt 103.35 -1.95 106.65 116 11M 9M 102.15
Buy Not Issued.
VTIV 10/12 Cup hdl 25.39 -0.43 26.48 32.25 528K 714K 24.63
Buy Not Hit. Pullback tapping 24.85 at the intraday low and rallied back holding the 18 day MVA on slightly above average volume. Meeting resistance at 26.
WBSN 10/19 Cup hdl 58.99 -0.54 60.25 69.45 356K 832K 58.05
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back on lower below average volume. May continue to test back to 10 day MVA (58.33)
WIRE 10/01 FlyPlat 22.3 +0.38 16.92 20.25 337K 170K 20.89
Current. Bounced showing a doji on above average volume. Broke through resistance at 22.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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