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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers: GILD, GENZ, JCOM, MCRS, VTIV, WIRE
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 11/08/2005
PSYS (Psychiatric Solutions--$56.75; +0.9; optionable): Specialized health services. Splits 2:1 on 1-10-06
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/psys.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. PSYS is in a strong uptrend above the 50 day EMA (52.99). It broke out from a base on base pattern in early September, and has trended higher since. It came back to test the 50 day to end October, bounced, and has just tested the 18 day EMA (54.83). This week it started back up, and we are looking to enter as it continues higher on a bit better volume. Solid market leader ready to move higher.
Volume: 275.627K Avg Volume: 448.165K
BUY POINT: $57.12 Volume=610K Target=$64.55 Stop=$54.68
POSITION: BYU CK - Mar. $55c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/psys.html
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 11/08/2005
TEVA (Teva Pharmaceutical--$38.99; +0.64; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teva.html
After Hours: $38.80
STATUS: Test breakout. TEVA is a post-split play, splitting in July 2004. That is when it fell into its 15.5 month ascending triangle base. It needed this to consolidate a long run from one of the more successful stocks. It broke sharply higher in mid-October, rallying on solid volume. It peaked near 39and started to move laterally the past two weeks, holding the 10 day EMA (38.28) on the lows. Tuesday volume spiked back up above average as TEVA posted a solid gain. Strong money flow is leading higher, and it looks as if TEVA is going to follow it higher.
Volume: 7.598M Avg Volume: 4.227M
BUY POINT: $39.45 Volume=5.5M Target=$45.75 Stop=$37.32
POSITION: TVQ CU - Mar. $37.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/teva.html
New buy point on a current play:
Play Date: 11/08/2005
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$45.35; +0.93; optionable): Internet communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
After Hours: $45.33
STATUS: Breakout test. JCOM broke out from its 7.5 month base in mid-October and has rallied up the 10 day EMA (44.29), using that as support. It faded back the past week to once again the 10 day, and then bounced Tuesday on rising slightly above average volume. Looks ready to continue its breakout move to an all-time new high.
Volume: 579.618K Avg Volume: 504.055K
BUY POINT: $46.05 Volume=650K Target=$53.95 Stop=$43.15
POSITION: JQF CI - Mar. $45c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jcom.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern.
AMHC: Forecast 11-16-05
CLF: Forecast 11-8-05
CWTR: Forecast late December
GENZ: Researching next potential date.
GG: Forecast 11-7-05. No current play. Struggling still but holding in the pattern. A break over 20.54 on some strong trade is what we are looking for.
HITK: Forecast 12-19-05
IMDC: Forecast 11-7-05
JOSB: Forecast 12-6-05
LCAV: Forecast 11-16-05
MRTN: Forecast 11-8-05
MRVL: Forecast 11-17-05 after the close
PGR: Forecast 11-9-05 after the close
TALX: Forecast 11-17-05
TSCO: Researching to pinpoint date.
WFMI: Forecast early November
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 11/08/2005
CELG (Celgene--$59.43; -0.02; optionable): Drugs. Researching to pinpoint an exact date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 9-9-04 at $57.40. Its other split was a 3:1 split announced 3-13-00 at $168.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
After Hours: $59.55
STATUS: Breakout test. CELG formed a short 7 week cup base in September and October, then broke higher early this month on strong, above average volume. It reached over 60 and then started this low volume test. It has not given up much ground, holding well above the 10 day EMA (57.20). It may come back to that point but it is being very stingy with its gains, a sign of its strength. Looking for volume to kick back up as it moves through the buy point, continuing its breakout run and moving to a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.106M Avg Volume: 2.53M
BUY POINT: $60.45 Volume=3.2M Target=$69.95 Stop=$57.04
POSITION: LQH DL - Apr. $60c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/celg.html
Play Date: 11/08/2005
CDIS (Cal Dive--$66.78; +0.56; optionable): Offshore oil and gas services company. Researching to pinpoint the date.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 10-18-00 at $54.50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cdis.html
STATUS: Breakout test. CDIS broke higher from a 12 week trading range to start the month, rallying to 67.50 on the high. It stalled there the past week, moving laterally on lower and lower volume. One of the companies that will benefit from the Gulf production facility rebuild.
Volume: 609.039K Avg Volume: 865.881K
BUY POINT: $67.65 Volume=1M Target=$77.85 Stop=$63.85
POSITION: KPQ CN - Mar. $70c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cdis.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/31/2005
CWTR (Coldwater Creek--$27.37; -0.86; optionable): Apparel retail stores. Forecast for a potential announcement the fourth week of December.
BACKGROUND: A frequent splitter of late. Last split 3:2 on 2-14-05 at $26.90. Like these as they build up shares for holding onto a good stock.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cwtr.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still testing and forming the handle, tapping at the 50 day EMA (26.43) on the Tuesday low and rebounding. Just waiting for it to rebound and show us the breakout on strong volume. To recap: Nice double bottom of sorts (very similar to a cup), and now looks as if it will form a handle to its 10 week base formed as CWTR consolidates after hitting another all-time high. Will let it make this test and form the handle this week, but we will also be ready to move in if it rebounds from here. Solid market leader with excellent fundamentals to match its technical pattern.
Volume: 428.501K Avg Volume: 710.969K
BUY POINT: $28.55 Volume=850K Target=$32.98 Stop=$26.72
POSITION: UCJ DE - Apr. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cwtr.html
Play Date: 11/05/2005
JOSB (Joseph A. Banks--$44.83; -0.95; optionable): Apparel stores. Potential announcement 12-6-05
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5:4 split 6-9-04 at $33.40. Prior to that it announced a 2:1 split 1-14-04 at $39.70.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/josb.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Low volume pullback Tuesday, and we think it is going to stop at 44 and then resume the move. To recap: JOSB surged to start the month on some strong sales and plans to open more stores. It is a solid leader in retail, boasting strong earnings and sales gains. Nice 12 week base looks as if it is going to form a handle: it rallied to 47 on the Thursday high but gave most of it back and then wandered Friday. That often indicates the recent move is overdone and it needs a breather. A handle is just the ticket to set up the next move. Looks strong; just need to wait for this handle to form this week and then show us another break higher.
Volume: 196.612K Avg Volume: 357.672K
BUY POINT: $45.45 Volume=433K Target=$53 Stop=$42.27
POSITION: QZS DI - Apr. $45c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/josb.html
Play Date: 11/05/2005
LCAV (LCA-Vision--$43.99; -0.33; optionable): Medical practitioners. Forecast 11-16-05.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 11-17-04 at $32.20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lcav.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working laterally over the 10 day EMA (42.75), forming the handle to its base on low volume. Ready to make the move. To recap: Surged higher in third week of October on strong earnings, building the right side of its 17 week base. It came back to end October and filled the gap, holding at the 10 day EMA on that test. It bounced some last week on some volume, then faded on low, below average trade. Strong run in 2004 through June 2005, and it needed a breather. Good pullback that held the 200 day SMA (38.29) on the low, a key institutional support level. Money flow is surging higher even as LCAV makes this pullback. Looking for it to hold above the 10 day EMA and give us a break higher. We will look at positions on a move higher from here if it does not give us the further pullback. This is a market leader, and when it shows us a high volume move, we want to be there.
Volume: 404.733K Avg Volume: 624.378K
BUY POINT: New: $44.88 (orig. $43.88) Volume=965K Target=$52 Stop=$41.89
POSITION: JVQ CH - Mar. $40c (66 delta) or JVQ CI - Mar. $45c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/lcav.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/06/2005
NIHD (NII Hldgs--$85.39; +0.71; optionable): Wireless telecom. Splits 2:1 on 11-22.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nihd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working laterally on low volume, still forming the handle as it moves laterally over the 10 day EMA (83.25) on low, below average volume. Ready to breakout to a new all-time high. Nice base. To recap: NIHD has run a long way in 2004 and 2005, and it needed a breather. It surged higher in late July and then fell into the current 13 week lateral move, the last 5 weeks forming a short cup with handle as it came back late in the week to test the 10 day EMA on lower volume. Very strong run and we are looking to capitalize on this pullback to give us a good run into the actual split. One of the top rated stocks in the market in terms of earnings growth and its strength.
Volume: 381.221K Avg Volume: 800.706K
BUY POINT: $85.45 Volume=1.1M Target=$96.55 Stop=$82.25
POSITION: QHQ AQ - Jan. $85c (50 delta) or QHQ CQ - Mar. $85c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nihd.html
Play Date: 11/07/2005
SMG (Scotts Co.--$89.77; -0.23; optionable): Miracle-Gro, etc. Splits 2:1 on 11-10-05
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smg.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Another nice tight doji on very low volume Tuesday as SMG continues the test. Just about ready. To recap: SMG is testing the 10 day EMA (88.72) after breaking higher last week from a 4 week flat base that formed using the 50 day EMA (85.26) as support. Strong volume move out of the pattern and a lower volume test of the 10 day. Accumulation is a solid 2 to 0 (2 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) and money flow is leading higher ahead of price.
Volume: 118.3K Avg Volume: 210.706K
BUY POINT: $90.99 Volume=316K Target=$100 Stop=$88.45
POSITION: SMG CR - Mar. $90c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/smg.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 11/03/2005
DADE (Dade Behring Holdings--$37.97; +0.52; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dade.html
After Hours: $38.09
STATUS: Volume is moving back up as DADE moves toward the breakout. Want to see volume spike up even more as it continues through the buy point. To recap: DADE is working on a ragged 13 week cup base that has come back from a July gap higher to test the move and fill the gap. It has done that, sporting strong 6 to 3 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume), showing plenty of buying during the test. Volume jumped back up above average the past week as DADE bottomed over the 200 day SMA (33.28) and rebounded. It may take another day or two to work laterally after that move, but then give us a breakout to a new all-time high. Strong top rated stock in its third year since going public.
Volume: 549.459K Avg Volume: 651.108K
BUY POINT: $38.11 Volume=1M Target=$43.85 Stop=$36.45
POSITION: JDQ BU - Feb. $37.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dade.html
Play Date: 11/07/2005
LUK (Leucadia National--$44.09; -0.06; optionable): Telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/luk.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was stronger and above average Tuesday as LUK continued in its handle and holding a tight pattern. Looks ready to make the breakout move. To recap: Nice 8 week base has formed using the 50 day EMA (41.99) as support. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) has set the stage for the breakout and the run higher. This has formed as a consolidation of the breakout from a larger 8 month base that broke out in September. Gapped higher Monday but could not hold the move. Nice base and ready to make the break higher.
Volume: 365K Avg Volume: 263.775K
BUY POINT: $44.75 Volume=396K Target=$52.95 Stop=$42.92
POSITION: LUK CI - Mar. $45c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/luk.html
Play Date: 10/22/2005
RMD (Resmed--$38.6; +0.04; optionable): Medical devices for sleep disorders
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmd.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Still a nice low volume test of the 18 day EMA (38.35) as RMD fills the gap from last week. Nice consolidation and looking for volume to jump higher from here.
Volume: 440.4K Avg Volume: 587.591K
BUY POINT: New: $39.65 (orig. $38.61) Volume=798K Target=$45.75 Stop=$36.88
POSITION: RMD AU - Jan. $37.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rmd.html
Play Date: 11/03/2005
SRCL (Stericycle--$58.18; +0.08; optionable): Waste management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srcl.html
After Hours: $58.17
STATUS: Breakout test. Excellent test of the trend reversal move, coming back and holding the 10 day EMA (57.99) on very low volume. Excellent test and ready to continue higher to a new all-time high. To recap: SRCL is moving up toward its former split price, but in the meantime this leading stock is giving us a great entry point after a surge higher earlier in this week that took it out of a downtrend that started in August (just as with NASDAQ). SRCL, however, moved to a new all-time high and is now testing that move. Has held the 10 day EMA, and now it is ready to rise again.
Volume: 264.101K Avg Volume: 256.934K
BUY POINT: $59.32 Volume=399K Target=$68.45 Stop=$57.68
POSITION: URL BL - Feb. $60c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/srcl.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trend trading stock
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